1、null 23 2 2008 M 6 null null JOURNAL OF CATASTROPHOLOGY Volnull23 Nonull2Junnull2008 null K l Z E C F ? N Z E *王念秦, 姚null 勇( S / v “ , null 710054)K null 1 : ) Z E , C F 8 + a y a s , y B C F ? ) 8 N , i O Q s E K l Z E N S b g “ u v C F , S , y = ) w , C F ? ) 8 N b1 o M : K l Z E ; ) 8 N ; C F ? N
2、 ; N y 0 ; v C F ; “ m s | : P642null23; O159null null D S M : Anull null c I | : 1000- 811X(2008) 02- 0005- 05null null C F T B n V 3 C , y ? l , , 7 s1 b C F ? N C F 8 N 1 F s , H 9 C F a a Z 1 G b C F N Z E Z a r ) ,i | 8 s E a Y E a E Z E C F b 1 ) N C F B N ; Z W 2 s E ) C F B ; C F N Z T v , |
3、 B T 3- 5b C F f u12 0null1670null4770null523 H q u2u / Y u21) a u22 Y u230null3290null2390null4210null340 H q u3 M u31 ( 1 u32 u330null2520null2350null4320null333null H q u4 f u12 ( 0null05, 0null10, 0null25, 0null60)u / Y u21 6 u , u ( 0null05, 0null10, 0null25, 0null60) a u22 ( 0null05, 0null10,
4、0null25, 0null60) Y u23 M W ( 0null10, 0null15, 0null60, 0null15) M u31 500 ( 0null05, 0null10, 0null25, 0null60) ( 1 u32 9null8% ( 0null10, 0null15, 0null60, 0null15) u33 32 ( 0null05, 0null10, 0null25, 0null60) ? S (DZ/T 0220- 2006) 8 u s E , v C F s 118 10, H v C F L f M v ? Z , I 1 CF , V v C F
5、? ) ? b V n , ) 8 N a C F ? N b3null ( 1) K l Z E N S , ? z T , X . d Qs E ) , E B _ %b B e T w null= C- 1 eeTC- 1 eL ? y ae p N S b K l Z E Z Q s E S , H 9 5 4 B e a r Z E b( 2) ) 8 N Z E v C F ? N , v C F ? ) ? , . d 8 u s E # C T B , Z E C F ? N V b( 3) B Z , Z E ; V $ # Q , V P N S a Y y 8 C , V
6、 S y M , v , P N 4 ; 6 B Z , N V s ? , P N T Z 4 , L = f b Z E e a b a L , ? P y , y s Y a V 8 a . y 8 r o b 1 i , N y | , ? 3 T aS , 7 Y V L s , | C F ? % T y0 T y 0 b9 , ) 8 N C F ? N , s I n N y 0 a a # , T X , L l V , B I N b I D :1 null , F + , l null ) 8 Z E C F N Jnull , 2004, 19( 2): 1- 6nul
7、l2 null Z W , 9 , Q U null C F B N Z E Jnull S , 2005, 17(3): 46- 48null3 null , + null S u ! C F B E Jnull , 1993, 8( 2): 1- 7null4 null , u , null + E C F # Jnull , 2005, 20(3): 73- 77null5 null , u , B , null + E 2005null6null30% ? C F N J null , 2006, 21(4): 58- 65null6 null , E null s M null :
8、=S v , 1992null7 null AnullTnullWnullChu, R E Kalaba, K SpingarnnullA Comparision of TwoM ethods for Determ ing the Weights of Belonging tnullFuzzy Sets Jnull Journal of optimization Theory and Application, 1979, 27(4): 138- 331null8 null null Q s E K l Z E Jnull , 1995, 15(2): 53- 57null9 null a ,
9、null1 y T u C F a Y Jnull , 2007, 22(3): 11- 16null10 - , Q U nullv C F ? + # B s Jnull / , 2007, 17( 1): 34- 42null8 null null 23 nullMethod ofDebrisnullflow PronenessEvaluationBasedonFuzzyMathematicsandLeastnullsquareMethodW ang Nianqin andYaoYong(D epartm ent of Geology and E nvironm ent Engineer
10、ing,X inullan University of S cience and T echnology, X inullan 710054, Ch ina)Abstrac:t Based on multinullgrade fuzzy evaluation theory and methods, a new multinullgrade fuzzy evaluationmodelof debrisnullflow proneness isworked out in the light of characteristics, causes and mechanism of debrisnull
11、flowhazard. TheAHP of leastnullsquaremethod is used to determineweight of evaluation indexes. Taking the Dashuigoudebris flow in Lintong ofXinullan as an example, two phase fuzzy synthetical evaluation on debrisnullflow proneness ismadew ith typicalevaluation indexes and second order approximation i
12、nference.Key words: weighted leastnullsquare method; multinulllevelmath fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; debris flowproneness evaluation; evaluation factor; Dashuigou debrisnullflow; Lintong ofX inullan(上接第 4页)Analysison theSpatialDistributionofDamnullFailure inChinaHeX iaoyan1, Wang Zhaoyin2 andHuan
13、g Jinchi1(1nullChina Institute of Wa ter R esources and H ydropow er R esearch, B eijing 100044, China;2nullD epartm en t of H ydraulic and Hydropow er Engineering, Tsinghua University, B eijing 100084, China )Abstrac:t Damnullfailure is influenced by many uncertainty factors. M ore information abou
14、t damnullfailure lawcould be acquired through analyzing related data, and the technical foundation could be laid for dam safetymanagementwork. This paper analyzes the spatial distribution of damnullfailure in China based on the data collectedin previous years from 1954 to 2003. The rate of damnullfa
15、ilure per year is selected as a basic index. C limatediagrams are correlated to the rate of dam failure. The results indicate that the high rate of dam failure per yearoccurs in the areaw ith average annualprecipitation less than 400 mm. Heavy rainfall after a long time ofdroughtmay increase the rat
16、e of damnullfailure. The failure rate of the areaswith low annualprecipitation and flood season ishigher than that of theareasw ithwet climate and high annualprecipitation. Large climate change is themain factorof dam failure.Key words: damnullfailure; spatial characteristics; annualmean rate of damnullfailure; climate diagram9null 2 Q U , : K l Z E C F ? N Z E
