1、科 学家 就气候 变化 达成共 识 （ 截止 于 2010.01.18 10 ：10） 本帖最后由 shakecorr 于 2010-1-18 10:10 编辑 Thismonths UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen comes amid growingscientific consensus that global temperatures are rising, and that the warmingtrend is having a measurable impact on life on the planet. According
2、to a 2007UN intergovernmental panel report on climate change, 11 of the previous 12years were the warmest on record. Although disagreements persist on the extentto which human activity is responsible for climate change, the Earths warmingno longer appears in doubt, and the long-term consequences loo
3、k increasinglygrim. 近些年来随着科技进步、 观测网络的完善， 数据增多和研究不断深入， 气候变化 问题的严重性日益凸显， 气候变化已成为当前全球科学家的主流共识。 经各国政 府和各领域专家长期系统研究， 人类活动导致气候变化的可能性在增加。 联合国 政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 组织数千 名来自全球各国的科学家编写了四 份气候变化评估报告。 在 2001 年发布的第三 份评估报告中，IPCC 认为人类活 动导致近 50 年气候变 化的可能性是 66% ， 而在 2007 年发布的第 四份评估报 告中，这一可能性已经上升到 90%。 Searing droughts,
4、 epic floods, devastating hurricanes and typhoons, retreating glaciers, melting polar ice caps, these are just some of the occurrences scientists say are becoming more common and intense or accelerating with alarming speed. In Kenya, the lack of rain this year decimated livestock and crops. ”The dro
5、ught has become unbearable. There is no food, we have no water. It is like we have no tomorrow.” Elsewhere, too much water. Torrential rains in Brazil late last year left dozens dead and thousands homeless. My parents have been living here for 58 years and never saw rain like this. Even in regions l
6、ong-accustomed to violent weather, such as the Philippines, the frequency and severity of massive storms is on the rise. Earlier this year, a series of cyclones devastated much of Bangladesh. ”It will become impossible to live in this land if cyclones keep battering us like this, one after the other
7、. Were poor people and after the third cyclone, we have nothing left.” Are these disasters freak occurrences, or part of a pattern foreshadowing a bleak future for men and animals? No one can say for sure but some indicators are plain to see. From Alaska to Switzerland to Argentina, glaciers that pr
8、edate humanity are in rapid retreat. At both of the Earths poles, ice is melting at what scientists say is an alarming rate, endangering numerous species. Over time, rising sea levels are projected to redraw the boundaries of Earths terrain, placing atolls and vast stretches of low-lying countries u
9、nderwater. Debate continues as to whether human activity alone accounts for climate change. But most scientists list carbon emissions from fossil fuels as a major contributor. Whatever the cause, experts say, the costs of a warming planet will be high, particularly for the worlds poorest and most vu
10、lnerable. World Band Chief Economist Justin Lin, “According to our estimation, 75% to 80% of the estimated damage will be borne by developing countries. For the developing country, climate change is something they cannot ignore. For years, people around the world have heard increasingly stark warnin
11、gs from the scientific community about climate change, punctuated by a growing body of anecdotal evidence pointing to a warming planet and worrisome examples of the tragic consequences it could bring. But the warnings and recent events have yet to spark a coordinated worldwide effort to confront cli
12、mate change, according to former US Vice President Al Gore, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for his subsequent efforts to raise awareness about global warming. ”It is up to us to hear those warnings and react to those warnings and to take appropriate steps in order to prevent that damage. We have everything we need to act except perhaps political will. That political will is sure to be put to the test in Copenhagen. Michael Bowmen, VOA News, Washington.
