1、摩根士丹利：区块链使用案例分析报告摩根士 丹利分析了五个案例以评估区块链发展趋势， 这五个案例包括， 纽约梅隆 银行的政府债券结算、 澳交所的行业规模证明概念、 新加坡的 Ubin 项目、 Ripple 的跨境支付解决方案和跨帐本协议，以及瑞银与 Utility Settlement Coin 的合 作实验。四个主要发现： 区块链仍然没有真正的测试： 早期的迹象表明这是一个有希望的技术， 但许多问 题尚未得到解答，也没有在复杂、快速变化的业务环境中进行规模化测试。区块链可以嵌入到现有的基础架构中， 以增加灵活性和安全性： 由于对区块链技 术的担忧仍然很强， 以及现有金融框架的复杂性， 摩根士丹
2、利认为区块链技术的 最佳用例是整合到现有基础结构中。社会化块链是关键： 法律、 法规和商业案例等问题仍然亟待解决。 不同的司法管 辖区可能会有不同的态度。仍然没有杀手级应用推动区块链普及： 许多概念证据仍在全球进程中， 但是， 没 有杀手级应用。两大投资结论： 块链是提高效率的工具。 随着技术的成熟， 基 金和证券公司将有机会进一步减少 人员和运营费用，区块链技术将越来越广泛地用于清算和交易。现有公司更可能获胜：由于区块链需要充分利用买入和信托，摩根士丹利预计，现有公司将占据主导地位。加密货币快速升值， 摩根士丹利的金融和技术团队都接到更多咨询。 可能的解释 是，投资者正在寻找不相关的风险资产
3、，技术人员关注区块链的安全性。但是， 政府的接收程度需要加快，尤其是价格监管方面。Morgan Stanley 1 RE SEARCH FOUNDATIONJune 13 201709:00 AM GMTGlobal Financials and PaymentsBloc kchain: Unc hained?Twelve months on, incum bent fina ncia l i nstitutions are Leading the ch a rge, with potential cost a nd ca pita l efficienc ies as the driver.
4、 Proofs of concept prolife ate. We expect a grad ua l change, w ith sma lle ， i nterope a bleblockcha ins most Likely to develop.M阳 Slanydoe 币 ds睛 盯 0曲 sriess w耐 com阳 回 7e-ed nMgan S闹 剧阳 .由 .ASOleru h 阴 晴 阳 sshou bea w阴 阳 tthe fm may ha晴 acmffctof nte 1回 阳 ff剧 情句 ec!N句 d“9副部 司 由 yRe,.,ach. lnestobfo
5、cappearanc想 S副 trad呵 se:txrt院 shebyares咄 咄 m恫 accouit.。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。Morgan Stanley I R FOUNDATIONGlobal Financials and PaymentsBloc kchain: Unc hained?Twelve months on, incum bent fina ncia l i nstitutions a re leading the cha rge, with potential cost a nd ca pita l eff iciencies
6、as the d iver. Proofs of concept proliferate. We expect a grad ua l change, with sma ller, i nteropera bleblockcha i 1s most likely to develop.We present five case studies and assess how far they have Tw。 investment conclusions:progressed against 。 ur framew。 rk of 10 hu dles: BNY Mellons Blokchain
7、1s a tool to improve efficiency.As the tehn。 l。 gy government bond settlement, ASXs industrial sca le proof of matu res, funds and securities firms will have an opp。 rt unityconcept, Proje ct Ubin in Sinp p町 矶 Ripples cr 目 bo rder payment to further reduce headcount and operational expe n田 ass lutio
8、ns and lnterledger Protocol. and UBS experiments with Bl ckchain techn l gy becomes more widely used to clear Utility Settlement C削 ”。 and 四 ttle transacti ns.Four k町齿” dings: Incumben ts likely to win: As we have written in 。 ur 血 且 Blockcha i n still hasnt had a true test: Early signs are that thi
9、s 旦 旦毕业 旦 旦 旦 ， we expect incumbents to domi nate given the isa prom ising technology , but many f the bigquest 1 ns have amount f buy-in and trust required for Blockcha i n to be fully yet to be answered, and it hasnt been tested at scale in a utilized . This suggests a longer time to scaledc mplex
10、, fast-moving business environment . implementati n, fav ring incumbents, in our view. Bl。 ckcha i n can be i nserted int。 the existing infrastructure f。 radded resiliency and security. Given c ncerns over One final though t The rapid appreciati n of cryptocur rencies has Blockcha i ns technological
11、 scalability and the c mp lexity of elicited many inbound ph ne ca llst both ur banks and tech teams the existing financial infrastructure, we think the best Possible explanati ns include invest rs in search of uncorrelated risk near-term u四 cases of Blockchain technology will be those assets and te
12、chnologists l king for incremental security. But that integrate Blockchain i nto the existing infrastructure . governmental acceptance w uld be required for this to further With its promise of security and immutabi li ty, Blockchain accelerate, the price f which is regulationtechn logy o忏 ers a solt
13、 t， n for finan口 al intermediaries whose business mode ls depend 。 n its reputat ion 。 f be ingsecure and resilient 5 cialising Blockchain is key.Lega l,regulat ry, and business case questions still need t be answered. Different jurisdictions may have different attitudes. Still no killer app to kick
14、-start Bl kchain adoption: Ma ny proofs of concep t a用 in the process globally, but there IS nokiller app yet, which we think is needed to kick-startadopti 同Morgan Stanley I R FOUNDATIONCo门 t r1 butors、 电 . t.:,! o ; -，M O刷 刷 臼 N也 EY 眉 A (SNG A问 如 El“Nd LordE事 崎 S国 146阳区将也 AN STAltEY aohu; Dong12127
15、fi、 Ma:!.GN唱 也 EV AUSTRAL Al M lECDan;el P Toohey， ， 。M盹 刷 STAtEY 剧 目 R.ll.AL J,HEDEdward PhamR四 街 由 A萃 ” 刻 V锺 .键 愤 地 叙划 1 . 1315 +6129 71)-lMe-X俗 仅 吨 萨 noroa刷 刷 咱甸 回 n 剧 创 Tod咀 嚼 M阳 回 n EdWar回 Pharr唱 创 oomMORGAN STANLEY Iii CO NTE冈 州 AT ONAL 民 CAn; Sharma, CFA MCRG.AJ呗 唱 出 Yu;a Auro由 M陷 忱 。 事 圈 响 双
16、 h嗣 同 饵 睛 黑知 “207425-fl828M I 啊 时 咄 .， . M句 i:lalSt债 ” 睛 翻 W“； ， ycom44207425-5344 创 ”笨 拙 崎 comMorgan Stanley I R FOUNDATIONCo门 te ltSS Executive Summary7 Wh o Will Be Advan taged, Incumben ts or Disru ptors?10 Blockchain 12 Months On - Where, What and How?11 Case Stu dies28 Crypto Conundrums: Bitco
17、in and Frien ds Blast Off, but More Questi口 n s than Coins32 Appendix I. Key Consortiums33 Appendix II. PoS Solution to the Energy Problem?。 。 。 。，。 。 。 。 。 川 ， 。MorganStanley I 翩 翩 阳Executive SummaryOne y哩 ar ag。 ， investors and cor p。 rates began to take more interest in the Blockchain; see our re
18、po r ts Globa l Fin anci als/ FinTech: Bl ckchain in Bankine: Disru口 tive Threat rT l? CAoril 20.2016) and Global Exchanges: Blockchain - Is ASX set to shaoe a brave neww rld? Clune 2.2016). At that time, there was little actual evidence of how this new technology w uld develop in the E ntext of the
19、 financial services industry r 凹 en if it was p ractical beyond a small scale .We are n w firmly in the middle of the proof-of-concept phaseof development (see E且 hl!i主 主 ） .In this report, we examinethe mi lestones that have been achievedWhere, What and Ho w?Over the last 12 m。 nths, we have furthe
20、r developed 。 urth。 ughts 。 n haw the business m。 del far the Blackchai n will develop (see 盟 且旦Will Be Advntued. lncumbenh or Disruotors? ). Except in a few cases where markets are small, or nonexistent, we think that Blockchain business soluti ns (if they workl will be developed by incumbents, wil
21、l be permissioned, and will target reducing costs r ma kin咀 existing processes m re resilient and secure. Our rese;rchshows that, as originally anticipated , m st of the proofs of concept are c。 n四 ntrated on 臼 pital markets-type businesses a时 ar。 undsettlement (we discuss severa l in吐 iatives in th
22、is 同 port). We also show tha t the technology is being develop ed globally.To gauge the likeli恼 。 d of success， 。 r otherw肘 ， we have written up five case studies based on existing proofs of c。 ncepl We haveundertaken inte阿 iews with pa 同 icipants in trials and reviewed published rep rts. These can
23、be found on pag自 11 to 27. Ou key findings, measured against what we see as the main hurd les toad ption, can be seen in 坠 坦 国 主 1Oltion ppo1tun民 y tornolut” th e mdusllyIn 。 ur rep。 rt Fintch - A Gauntlet tn Rk:hei, we identified a number imp。 同 ant env i ronmenta l c。 nsiderati。 ns int。 our gauntl
24、et of factors that influence the pace 。 f change and alter a firms framew。 rk,which we expect to help industry insiders, investor s, and Likelih 。 。 d 。 f success through disrupt i旧 n versus partnering with companies gauge where a part iculor fintech effort should positi阳 nincumbe r、 ts. We 白 白 白 ed
25、 t he ci rcums tnces that enable complete itself vis a-vis incumbe r、 ts to maxi mize impact and potential Running 白 ntech disr upti。 n versus inn。 vations that u ltima tely a 吨 better the Blockchain inn。 vati。 n throu h this fram ew。 rk leads us to suited to pa rtner with a nd drn1e the 。 perat ing
26、 improve ment for believe that incu mbents, as 。 pposed to disruptor s, may be best incumbents. While there is wide varia ti。 n in environmen t , suited to harnessi ng the benefits of this technology in a scalable wayconstraints, and competit i wedistilled what we think arethe most (see 坠 坠 且 ）ORGA
27、TA v 飞 t”.AC叫。 。Morgan Stanley I “ FOUNDATIONEx!”bit 3:Blockch ain p。 ssib le timeframe for implementa甘 。 n2017-2020:Sh a ed lnfrast uctu e Emerges2016-2018:2014-2016:Assess Blockchains Value for Financial Assets姐 回 阳 omSOm“vRm“20午 6: Assess Blockchai”s Vawe f， ， 20 16-18:Proof of Con四 ” 20霄 20： 弱 a
28、red Infrastructure Emerges Financial Assets Banks and Flis tee up specific assets as a Pr。 ven assets adopted well beyond i nitial Banks and 。 ther f inancial infrastructure test case for Bl ckchain POC gr。 upintermediaries (Flis), including Central POC Goa l:Assess if Blockchain can scale Develop i
29、nterface for external users Depositories, Exchanges, 主 Illiquid ma rkets (e.g., SME secu rities settlement, ASEAN government bonds） 。 r marketsthat d。 阳 t curre ntly exist(e 岳 ， i nternati nal transfer of assets between m bile wallets in emergi ng marke ts, NYIAXs market for adverti si ng contracts
30、in US) Ad。 ption of some form of Bl。 ckchain technology byva ri。 us effo rts are under way to assess the bus i ness c a 坦 whether the benefits exceed the c。 sts and risks of implemen tati。 n, particularly relative to si mple r alternativessuch as incremental updates to legacy infrastructureincumbent
31、s is Likely. Given the amount 。 f c。 llab。 rati阳 n requ ired, we expect it c uld take several years to replace existing back offke functi ns I pr duce measurable cost臼 vings in the as四 t classes ad pted节 、ere is a p。 tential applicati。 n as pa叫 。 f the cybersecurity t。 。 lkit against escalating cybe
32、rsecurity risk, as Blockchair、technology is c nsidered m re difficult to hack.Al a nd Blockch ain?Al (artificia l inte lligen叫 and Blockchain have been among the bu zzw。 rd elites the past cou ple of year.; We 臼 同 t h elp but wonderif th ey shou ldnt actua lly be com田 titors, or whether they will co
33、mplement one another.Th e core intention of Blockchain as a concept is to create a record that is irrefutable in its accuracy and reliability.But Lik e everyth in g else in life, absolute confidence comes at a pr i ce:exponentially growing comp uting and band widt h requirements, at least Linear gro
34、wth in storage req uirements, significan t secu rity and privacy question s, an d all th ose costs are very front-end loaded (creati咆 f陪 e rider i ncentives), w仙 the pay 仔 coming long term as main tenance costs fallOn the other hand, Al could atually calculate probabilities of accu racy and reliabil
35、ity at increasing levels of confiden 臼 in the long run, is there an economic difference between 99.9% and 100% reliability? And better data, more com p uting powe口 an d greater bandwidth, should i m prove th e ability to delive r h igher confide n四 levels. I mprovi ng the calculation of probabi liti
36、 es can be achieved w ith the falling costs afforded by Moores Law while investment is underta ken on an ad hoc basis. Investment andim provement can be made iteratively, allowing for a clearer path and time to paybackWe have seen the probabilistic approach to transat1on secu rity and already s回 sub
37、stant i al sucess wi thin the trad 1t1ona l payment networks, Like those operated by Visa an d MasterCard. On the other hand, by working to i mprove behi nd-the scenes t ransaction assessments, those networks have been able to keep verall fraud losses low.Even relative n ewcomer Square has been able
38、 tokeep its losses below 10bps even as 1t has given away the ability to accept cred it and debi t cards -th町 Literally give awayreaders, and they requ ire no cred it check s (for ind i v地 als r ther ver i fi臼 tmerdar t/corsur 1er fraud.We think M ores Law and im proved data analytics could pus h tho
39、se lo白 白 lower.Hence， 。 u r qu田 t i on:Can Al be used in conjunct ion with I nternet of Things, Cloud Com puting, Big Data, and all the cu rrentbuzzwords to im prove the application of b lockchairORGA ,TA v 飞 t”.AC叫。 。户 也 军 ”队e ta2A尊 也li 益 。li x mM ， aEEE 4 国圃钮 也 幽2 电 gE号 刊 E l ESZ ；m7 唱 鹏 a哩压 v E每
40、白ER白 ag呈 阳 幅时EaA 。 ”的Eli Ma a隅网 R Eg， 电e弓的 ， z晴HM叩睛 CS S e丛”。bMorganStanley I . . .凰 ” FOUNDATIONBloc kc h a i n 12 M ont hsHow?Headlines Have Bee n Proliferat ingWhilst Blockchain ， 。 rdistnbuted ledger te chnolo町 ， has been aroundOn - Wh ere, W h at a n dExhibit4:Number f times Bl c2,200 listed is
41、suers and -1 million d创 y tradesEquity Trading Settlemen t阳 uwolion Securities pre11e11甸 回 ” 吧 P,m世 甸 Ripples 。 wn er。 目 b。 rder payment soluti。 ns and global g 。 目 settlement netw。 rk are am。 ng th。 se Blockchain techn。 l。 gies enabled by ILP. Leveraging Bl。 ckchaintechnology and the c叩 ptocurrency
42、 XRP, Ripple aims to facilitate faster and m。 re sure cross七 。 rder payments ,l。 wering costs and unlocking liquidityNota h。 me n1n yet: Ripple IS still in the proess of rolling out the ILP to m。 re payment networks by writing m。 re netw。 rk specific plug-ins In addition, even though the netw。 rk is
43、 m。 re secure, user 。 erm i nals can still be hacked Currently blockchair、 tec。 hn。 l。 gyreliesbalances . Work still need to be done to make key management m re robust “耐 晒 “ “ “o） c 飞 电 、SOurc:e nt回 国 c Protocd R例 eM叫 田 St回 Rl!sem-chORGA ,TA v 飞 t”.AC叫 lMorganStanley I “ FOUNDATIONEx!”bit 20:Rippe
44、ILPs potential as an blockchain technol 50% f all n des in a network .In other words, hacking would 悦目 tremely difficult to set up, and m re importantly, prohibitively expensiveHas Blockchain ever boon hacked?Yes. It 1s possible to hack Blockcham , especially in networks with fewer nodesThe most fam
45、ous hack was the DAO Attack 1n June 2016, which led t。 ”US$60mn Ether theh The hack exploited vulnerability in an application called ”DAO that was running on the Ethereum smart-contract Bl。 ckchain platform.A number of Bitcom exchar唱 es have also been hacked, and are vulnerable in the traditional se
46、nse as they 。 hen store user dataprivate keys“) in a centralized locati on. “Key“ management is therefore criti日 l to mana ging security of the network . What happened 侃町 tho Ethe 剧 m hack?The hack caused a philosophical split and led to the creation of Ethereum and Ethereum Classic.Ethereum include
47、s a “hard fork” that reversed the US$60mn theft through a change in c。 de. The m。 ve was contr。 versial as it undermined a very E。 re featu re of Blockchain: its im mutability. Still, a majority of the Ethereum members voted for this option. The minority -who thinks immutability of the network sh。 u
48、ld be respected even i n a hack - stuck with what is now known asthe Eth ereum Classic, where the US$60mn theh is pr目 er v回 n record . What ab “electricity cost?Most m坷 。 r crypt。 currenci田 （ eg. Bitc。 1n and Ether) today rely on Proof-of -Work (PoW) to validate transactions. Miners cleartrans actions by solving a complex math puzzle. O内 ly the
