1、黄亚生：改革时期的外资Selling China: Foreign Direct Investment During Reform Era(New York: Cambridge University Press, 28003)Carnegie Endowment of International PeaceJanuary 16, 2003Yasheng HuangAssociate Professor, Harvard Business SchoolTopics?An overview of FDI developments?Challenging conventional wisdom?A
2、n institutional perspective?Broad implications1AN Overview: FDI Developments?#0046990?a name=baidusnap7000: $421.1 billion2001: $45.0 billion2002 (01-08): $35.7 billion over $28.8 billion same period in 20012002 A.T.KearneysFDI survey: China outranked United States as the most attractive FDI destina
3、tion?#0046990?Growing weight of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in the Chinese economy: Share of industrial output value: 27.8% in 1999 from 7.1% in 1990Share of value-added tax: 16% in 1999 from 4.3% in 1992Share of export: 47.9% in 2000 from 15% in 19902An Overview: Basic Characteristics?#0046
4、990?Characteristics of FDI inflows before 1997:Low tech and labor-intensive: Much from small firms based in Hong Kong, Taiwan and MacaoEvenly distributed across industries, including in Chinas traditional arts and crafts industriesVery high share of capital formation: Over 60 percent of privatefixed
5、 asset investments in the mid-1990sRising FDI in labor-intensive industries but declining contract production until 1997Rising FDI when China was a net capital exporter: Massive purchases of T-bonds 3Challenging Conventional Wisdom?#0046990?Market fundamentals Investment today in expectation of futu
6、re profits?Absolute vis-vis relative levels of FDI?Why foreign firms were far more optimistic than domestic firms about the future? ?Why market allure to foreign firms more than to domestic firms?#0046990?Economizing on labor costsWhy such a reliance on equity financing as opposed to contract produc
7、tion?Patterns of successful export economies, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Korea4Challenging Conventional Wisdom?#0046990?Resource transfer rationaleMechanisms of know-how transfer in labor-intensive industries: Contractual vehicleQuality control: Close coordination on quality inspection on an arms length
8、basisPurchasing practices?#0046990?Rule of lawContractual flexibility, not rigidity, highly valuedFDI = A long-term contract not desired during uncertaintyLabor-intensive export industries developed successfully in poor legal settings: Taiwan and Korea in the 1960s5An Institutional Perspective: Soun
9、d Macros but Bad Micros ?#0046990?A.T. Kearnys survey: Lack of entrenched competitors cited as anattractive factor?#0046990?At a given level of macroeconomic conditions, FDI is jointly determined by competitive advantages of foreign vis-vis domestic firmsCompetitiveness of foreign firmsRelative fore
10、ign competitiveness =Competitiveness of domestic firms?#0046990?Why domestic firms are uncompetitive?#0046990?The influence of Chinas financial institutions in allocating financial and economic resources6Poor AllocativeEfficiencies?#0046990?6Best of the resources and market opportunities reserved fo
11、r the inefficient firms, the SOEs?#0046990?Poor protection of property rights of indigenous private firms (but better property rights for foreign investors)?#0046990?Market fragmentation?#0046990?Result:SOEs are uncompetitive because of internal constraints: poor incentives, governance problems, pol
12、itical control, etc.Private firms are uncompetitive because of external constraints:political and legal discrimination, credit constraints, market-entry restriction, etc.Domestic firms cannot invest across regions 7Implications of Microeconomic Inefficiencies: Uncompetitivenessof Domestic Corporate
13、Sector?#0046990?Across-the-board uncompetitiveness of domestic firmsIncreases relative competitiveness of foreign firms across-the-boardFDI broadly present in many industries and regionsEven very small foreign firms invest actively?#0046990?Contractual difficulties in labor-intensive industriesExpor
14、t contract = a business opportunity but without resources, eg., foreign exchangeExport-oriented FDI = export contract + resourcesPoor legal status of private firms: 1) foreign vendors wary of extending buyer credit to such a firm; 2) a private firm motivated to be acquired by a foreign firm to acces
15、s better legal treatment8Inefficiency-induced FDI ?#0046990?Primacy of FDI as ownership arrangementWooing FDI while not allowing domestic private firms to acquire SOE assets ?#0046990?a disproportionate privatization role of FDIA whole class of potential bidders for SOE assets excluded ?#0046990?A m
16、ore active role of foreign firms in Chinas de facto privatization drive Privatization = an ownership arrangement (by definition)?#0046990?Many functions of FDIForeign firms can invest cross-regionally but domestic firms cannot: A broad geographic distribution of FDIEquity financing to credit-constra
17、ined private firms to expand their businesses: Venture capital provisions in mature industries political rather than technological risksAcquiring assets from SOEs rich in assets but poor in profits: Privatization functions of FDI9Broad Implications?#0046990?A substantial improvement of private firms
18、Enhanced domestic competitivenessContract production now feasible: ?Export processing increased by 67% between 1998 and 2000. ?Direct garment exports by private firms increased 1.4 times in 1999. Labor-intensive FDI decreasedFDI increased in absolute terms but decreased in relative terms?FDI only ac
19、counted for less than 20 percent private sectoralinvestments in 2001Quality of FDI improved: More high-techA greater concentration of FDI in high value-added industries10Broad Implications?#0046990?Two contrasting growth models in China: Zhejiangand JiangsuIdentical initial conditions: 1) Income lev
20、el, 2) Economic openness, 3) Stock of social capital, 4) Geographic locationsZhejiang: Far successful than Jiangsuand far less relianton FDI as a growth driverIdentical in FDI policies but differed in their internal policies toward private firmsZhejiangfar more supportive of the private sector than
21、JiangsuZhejiang: Some of the best domestic firms in ChinaJiangsu: Massive debt default by SOEsand failings of TVEs11Broad Implications?#0046990?China vis-vis IndiaSuperior macro performance of China, but China endowed with some substantial advantages over IndiaPuzzle: India today boasts some of the
22、best performing domestic firms but China is falling way behind in microeconomic performance12RELATIVE FDI SIZE, MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, AND FDI CONTROLS 1993-1997Business environment for foreign investorsEase of foreign Business Corruption acquisitions on 1-10 environment perception FDI flows/gr
23、oss fixed Gross domestic Current account scale (country ranks ranks, 1996-rank, 1997 capital formation, 1993-savings rate, balance/GDP, out of 46 countries, 2000 (out of 60 (out of 52 1997 (%)1994-1997 (%)1994-1997 (%)1996)countries)countries)Singapore276916.47.6950.92Mexico344715.30.537.7621.35Chin
24、a14.644412.745.6941.76Malaysia14.1243239.98-0.754.73United12.4414-1.618.5614.71KingdomHong Kong10.2318-1.358.831.92Philippines8.6354015.5-8.55.89Canada8.28551.717.4420.37United6.3811615.57-1.618.56StatesIndonesia6.14464633.506.29Brazil5.32-03836.777.7120.13Thailand3.76303937.97-6.285.05Taiwan2.7825.
25、6-2.721315.94India2.4454521.15-2.646.6135.71-1.783.64Korea1.06293413THREE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES WITH THE LARGEST FDI VALUES FROM HONG KONG IN THREE COUNTRIES (PERCENT) Indonesia (1976)Malaysia (1977)Taiwan (1974-1979)China (1993)Industry with largest Electronics23.4Hong Kong FDI52.9Chemicals55.3P
26、lastic Textile57.912.1Textileproducts11.2TextilesndIndustry with 2Food largest Hong Kong FDIElectronics manufac-14.69.1Chemicalsand turing28.8electrical appliances8.3Chemicals Metal 53.39.2or electrical productsand Garment Industry with 3rd largest electronics*4.7and Hong Kong FDI24.7footwear20.913.
27、6All other industriesTop 3 industry 79.175.346.786.4concentration of Hong Kong FDI* The two industries tie at 8.3%14INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTION ROLES OF SOEs IN CHINAS MACHINERY INDUSTRY, 1997 SOEsCollective Overseas-Private Foreign-Chinese firmsfirmsfunded FIEsfunded FIEs26Long-term 19.12investment/
28、net fixed 8.21asset ratio (%)3.382.0333.46Operating income (100 million yuan)8.988.360.2-10.8316.11Investment income (100 million yuan)1.590.480.150.00115FIEs EXPORT SHARES OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN THREE FIEsshare of total exportsECONOMIES (PERCENT) Contract exportsChina (1995)Indonesia (1995)Taiwan (198
29、0)Garment Garment Garment Labor-60.533and and and footwearfootwearfootwearintensive 5.7industriesLeather Leather Leather 73.219.7and fur and and fur productsrelated products9.6productsLumber and Furniture75.1Furniture14bamboo products2.7Electric, measuring, and Electronics Electronics photographic a
30、nd electrical and electrical Capital-or apparatus78.850.583.4appliancesappliancestechnology-Computer intensive and parts91.8industriesMachinery 86.1and vehicle partsPaper and Paper and Pulp paper 53.429.8paper paper and paper productsproductsproducts4.54Chemical Chemical 31.6Chemicals34.9ma42.3teria
31、ls and materialsproductsAll manufacturing 47.120.629.0industries16RELATIVE POLICY TREATMENTS: A SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION?Tax concessions?Debt forgivenessSOE?But allow some privatization ?Favored access to credit, foreign exchange, technologyMore ?Allow bankruptcies?Superior legal and political favor
32、ablestatus?Woo foreign investment in heavy industries?WTO accession?Further codification?Liberalization terms to be implementedPolicy ?Scale down tariff benefitstreatmentI?Dengs Southern tours ?Private entrepreneurs FDIwelcomed into the ?Allow stock ?Regional FDI liberalization?Allow direct Communis
33、t Partymarket export?Lift some ownership listingrestrictions?Constitutional revision?Bank credit quota abolished?More credit to ?Limited Private non-state firmsprivatizationSector?Shut down Less regional stock favorablemarkets19921995199619971998199920002001Time17FINANCING STRUCTURE OF THE BEIJING WARNER GEAR (MILLION YUAN)Equity contributionTotal equityEquipmentInventoryCashTechnologyTotal capitalization 247.155.8 38.3Beijing Gear(61%)Equity: 91.4(37%)Debt: 155.7 (63%)17.5002.81035.6Borg-Warner27.6(39%)5.218
