1、Unit 1 EMU Has Exchange Rate Policy Implications for Transition Countries Seeking EU MembershipKey Words European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) 欧洲经济货币联盟EMU reference values 欧洲经济货币联盟参考标准The new exchange rate mechanism (ERM 2) 新汇率机制IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department 国际货币基金组织财政部The currency risk premiu
2、m 货币风险溢酬Asymmetric real shocks 非对称性实际冲击An independent monetary and exchange rate policy 独立的货币汇率政策Macroeconomic stability 宏观经济稳定性Budget balance 预算平衡Synchronized cycles 同步的循环Biased toward agriculture and industry 偏重于工农业Non-core EU members 欧盟非核心成员国A managed float (exchange rate arrangement) 有管理的浮动汇率制An
3、 undeclared margin against the deutsche mark 钉紧德国马克，保持一个不公开的差额A pre-announced crawling peg 预先公布的缓慢钉紧汇率制度A currency board arrangement 货币局制度、联系汇率制度External current account 对外经常性项目账户The capital account 资本账户Legal reserve requirement systems 法定存款准备金制度Sterilized intervention 对冲操作The nominal exchange rate
4、名义利率Exchange rate regimes 汇率制度Appropriate flanking policies 适当的配套政策Containment of fiscal imbalances 遏制财政失衡A prudent monetary stance 审慎的货币政策Fixed parity 固定平价Purchasing power parity (PPP) 购买力平价Interest rate parity (IRP) 利率平价Gold parity 金平价Widen the official margins 放宽官方波动幅度Shadow the Euro unilaterally
5、 单方面暗中钉紧欧元Full capital account liberalization 资本项目的完全放开Notes1. Including convergence toward EMU reference values and adherence to the new exchange rate mechanism (ERM2) created for nonparticipating EU members.2. That is, those that have opted out, or been left out, of EMU.3. Albeit4. Entering the EM
6、U currency area entails both cost and benefits for candidate countries.5. Also, the currency risk premium, reflected in the interest rate, would fall and eventually vanish.6. An important potential cost of joining a currency area is that it impairs a countrys ability to absorb asymmetric real shocks
7、 in the absence of an independent monetary and exchange rate policy.7. And, conversely, participation in a currency area leads to trade expansion and thus to more synchronized cycles.8. Their economic structure is only moderately more biased toward agriculture and industry relative to services than
8、that of non-core EU members, except Greece.9. At one end of the spectrum, the Czech Republic follows a managed float subordinate to the inflation target set by the central bank.10. The current macroeconomic situation in these countries is broadly characterized by sustainable growth, underpinned by r
9、apidly increasing labor productivity, and by a deceleration in inflation to low double-digit or high single-digit rates.11. The effect is compounded by a surge in foreign direct investment.12. Insufficient financial and enterprise restructuring has rendered the Czech economy vulnerable.13. All five
10、countries-to varying degrees-will need to make steady progress toward increased wage flexibility, containment of fiscal imbalances supported by a prudent monetary stance, and financial sector restructuring.14. However, accession countries should exercise caution in widening the band during a period
11、of turbulence in the foreign exchange market.15. To preserve credibility, the authorities should declare the countrys commitment to reinstate the former parity following a temporary deviation due to a speculative attack.16. *The other dilemma enters on the requirement of full capital account liberal
12、ization while the candidate countries remain vulnerable to destabilizing capital flows prompted by rapid shifts in investor sentiment.Exercise 21 美国是个移民国家，他号称接纳了那些不愿或不能回到自己祖国去的许多人。The USA is an immigrant country, which claimed to have accepted many people who have opted out, or been left out, to the
13、ir countries.2 科研工作需要具备吃苦耐劳的精神。The work of scientific research entails the spirit of tough.3 在全球经济金融化的趋势下，实体经济与虚拟经济越来越不能同步发展。With the trend of financialization of global economy, the real economy and virtual economy cannot develop synchronize more and more. 4 有人主张农、轻、重并举，不可偏重于其中任何一项。Someone maintain
14、s the agriculture and the light industry and the heavy industry should be paid the same attention, and cant be biased toward any one.5 仅仅只用了50多年的时间，金融从属于贸易的局面便被彻底扭转了。Only in more than 50 years, the situation that finance subordinate to trade is turned totally.6 该国的经济以低膨胀、高增长为特征。The economy of this c
15、ountry is characterized by low inflation and high growth. 7 有人担心，广东国投（GITI）的破产会有损于国家的信誉。Some is worried that the bankrupt of GITI will impaired the credit of the country.8 我本人对金融衍生产品在我国的应用持谨慎的态度。On my own, I maintain a prudent stand to the application of the financial derivative products in our coun
16、try.Exercise 3The fist days and weeks of the Euro were heady times for many in the banking industry, particularly for those involved in clearing and settlement.欧元诞生之初，许多银行，特别是那些清算业务量比较大的银行都存在着如何适应的问题。For the EBA Clearing Company it was important to capture the experiences of those operating in the n
17、ew Euro environment. We therefore carried out a survey that highlighted how the dynamics of the Euro have affected the payment business of the clearing banks. The exercise highlighted several issues, such as payment trends, end-of-day settlement and liquidity management, and changing practices in co
18、rrespondent banking.对于EBA清算公司来说，在欧元出现以后，如何学会在新环境下生存，如何获取经营经验，都是重要的问题。正是在此背景下，我们开展了一项调查，以揭示欧元的变化会对清算银行的支付业务产生何种影响。调查涉及以下问题：支付手段的变化趋势，每日终了时的结算，流动性管理以及银行业经营模式的变化。After 8 weeks of live experience for the participants in EBA Euro Clearing System, also known as EURO1, EBA Clearing met not only heads of pa
19、yments but also treasures, back-office operators, organization managers, IT consultants and correspondent bankers.对EBA欧元清算系统（也称为EUROI）的参与者进行8周的实地调查后发现，EBA清算公司不仅遇到了支付量很大的客户，而且遇到了诸如拥有巨额财富的人、后台操作者、组织管理者、IT顾问和其他银行家之类的客户。From 4 January to 9 April this year, the total number of transactions processed by E
20、uro1 amounted to 3,648,140 payments. The uptake in the number of payments processed was particularly impressive and makes the EBA the largest system in Europe in Terms of daily transactions.从1月4日起，至当年4月9日，通过EBA欧元清算系统进行的交易额累计达到3,648,140欧元。如此巨额的支付量令人印象深刻，并使EBA成为欧洲日交易额最大的清算系统。Unit 4 China Needs the Big
21、 MoneyNotes1. This shortage of professional fund managers makes for a market overwhelmingly dominated by small investors.2. But, if theres to be an increase in the number of entrants to the market, it will have to be matched by a rise in the number of share buyers.3. The State Council recently clear
22、ed state enterprises to swap their debt for equity.4. The asset-management companies of the four major state-owned banks will have to adopt various strategies to off-load the assets on their books.5. A move possibly paving the way for the phased introduction to the market of so-far unlisted shares.6
23、. The demise of the quota system for candidates for listing may well bring a growing number of companies to the market7. But China still needs to think further afield to create a large set of institutional investors.8. Portfolio9. Different types of asset allocations could be devised to fit the risk
24、-vs.-reward objectives of contributors.10. That would give them the liquidity they lack in the B-share market and introduce another set of hard-nosed investors.11. The central bank keeps track of the money brought in and the stocks purchased.12. Showing the benefits China could gain from easing the
25、entry of foreign investors.Exercise 21 改革开放政策为中国经济腾飞于民族振兴铺平了道路。The reform and opening policy paves the way for the prosperous of Chinese economy and national development.2 经济问题不能一蹴而就，而必须采用分阶段的方式来逐步解决。The economy question cannot accomplish in one move, but must phase to solve progressively.3 过多的不良贷款造
26、成金融机构在经营上十分困难。Too much bad loans make for the financial institution to be very difficult in management.4 对这方面的问题我们必须考虑的长远一些。We need to think further afield about the question in this aspect.5 新近任命的央行行长是一个精明务实的实干家。The new-appointed governor of the Chinese Peoples Bank is a hard-nosed man of action. 6
27、 自从这种新的衍生产品问世以来，我们就一直在追踪观察市场的反应。Since the launch of this kind of derivative product, we have been keeping track of the feedback of the market.7 财政政策和货币政策应该相互配合、彼此协调。Financial policy and monetary policy should match and coordinate each other.8 旧有规章的停止使用意味着它已经不适应于新的形式。The demise of the old rules means
28、 they are not fit for the new situation.9 为了减轻学生们的压力，目前各个学校都在给学生“减负”。In order to off-load the students pressure, each school is easing student at present.Exercise 3Chinas rulers have made a promise that most governments could keep without any trouble-to slow their countrys economic growth. They have
29、 said they want output this year to grow by a mere 9%, rather than the 13% a year achieved in 1992 and 1993. Their reason is inflation, officially estimated (i.e., underestimated) at 25%. This must fall, the government says-and it will, it says, to 10%. The difficulty is that China-now, in some way,
30、 a market economy-still lacks most of the instruments for managing aggregate demand that are taken for granted in other market economies. Although the government does seem to be getting more of a grip on money supply, it is also being forced to cool the economy by decree.中国政府管理层已做出承诺认为，世界上绝大多数政府都可以毫
31、无困难地降低其经济增长速度。他们已表示希望本年度GDP增长仅为9，而不是1992年和1993年所达到的13%。原因就在于官方估计的（即被低估的）通货膨胀率已达到25。中国政府表示这一数字必须下降至他们所认为的10。其中的困难表现在：从某些方面来看，中国目前的市场经济仍然缺少管理社会总需求的有力工具，而这些工具在其它国家的市场经济中是普遍存在的。尽管该国政府似乎确实对货币供应量进行了更多的控制，但是它也正被迫以行政手段来为整个经济进行降温。On any measures, China, though big, remains very poor. That is one reason to ex
32、pect that its rapid growth can continue. Compared with East Asias miracle economies, China suffers several disadvantages: Its arable land per farm worker is low; Chinas state-owned enterprises are still not strong; Chinas exporter, esp. of manufactures, are much more dependent on foreign capital tha
33、n their counterparts in other East Asian economies; and so on.从任何尺度上来看，中国都是总量很大而又仍然非常贫穷。这就是预计其快速增长能够继续保持的一个原因。与创造东亚奇迹的其他国家相比，中国具有以下几方面的劣势：人均可耕种面积较低；国有企业还不是很强大；与其他东亚国家相比，出口商尤其是制造商对外资的依赖程度更大；等等。Unit 6 A Capital Roles for AllTextP42倒数第一段 至 P45倒数第三段另外，新兴市场银行经常遭受他们国家的投融姿周期所带来的一系列风险。比如：那些银行发现那些易受流动性风险影响的外
34、汇在他们本国资产中占有优势地位，尤其是当汇率大幅度波动和市场动乱的时候，就更难使它保持一定水平的金融资本。无论风险的特点是什么，对所有银行来说保护自己最好的方法是正确的识别风险，准确测度和定价它，有效控制它并保持较高水平的各项准备金，无论是在好的情况下还是在坏的情况下。非常明显，对所有银行来说，发掘更好的方法来管理评估那些被完全合并的多样复杂风险的资本是非常具有挑战性的。实际上许多银行更加关注的是评判其自身的风险特征并估计在正常时期和合理压力下应付不利后果所需的资本数量。更多久经事故的银行通过分析模型来保持领先的地位。充足资本的评估将继续作为银行机构风险管理的第一要务。银行高级管理人员更进一步
35、的是不仅要估算他们流动资本水平，而且要估算他们适当的资本结构。从理想上看，这些分析将引领有关经济战略、风险特征和未来资本需求的统一决策过程。随着银行在识别与量化其风险上更加熟练，他们应该会在强化风险披露以及更好的告之让投资者方面得心应手。当银行股东最终内承担机构的风险，他们也经常在评估稳健性和 对银行的前景做聪明的业务决策方面不处于有利位置。透明度的缺乏阻碍了资本经常性和有效的流动，减少或毁坏资本的价值。披露可以加强市场决策管理，鼓励更好的提供在资产评估和风险管理战略和内部控制方面的信息。调整者们面对的一个开发资本标准的主要挑战是那些被银行机构披露的一系列更加广泛的风险。这些标准必须改进高风险
36、和低风险披露与弱强机构之间的差异化。最近，资本监管的首要工具是由巴塞尔协定颁布，在1988年被巴塞尔银行监督委员会修改的最小资本金率。在过去的几年里，风险管理办法在快速的发展，而巴塞尔协定相对发展缓慢。因此，非常明显的是，对于大多数成熟的金融机构来说，巴塞尔协议的长期相关性与有效性正日趋淡化。进一步的说，银行监督者计划发展资本结构中的三大支柱：资本充足的要求，资本检查和市场纪律。资本监督的基础是银行评估其总资本充足性与其风险特征和资本水平与结构战略的程序。监督者希望银行操作上面提到的由巴赛尔协定规定的最小资本准备金率和审慎评估能帮助告之有多少。监督者也寻找早期干预阻止资本下滑到审慎水平以下和银
37、行评估提供另一个识别在他们变成主要问题前关键要素的有用工具。有了这些想法，监督者在试图发展更多的检查资本充足度的系统方法。P45倒数第三段Notes1. not to mention bank supervisors and central bankers whose job is to oversee the soundness and stability of the international financial system.2. The increasing strains under which banking systems in Latin America, Asia and
38、elsewhere are currently operating have underscored the important role of capital. We have witnessed the dramatic effects of weak banking systems on both developed and developing economies and the repercussions on financial markets everywhere.3. The role of capital is to act as a buffer against futur
39、e, unidentified even relatively remote losses that a bank may incur. A bank must hold enough capital to cushion both depositors and senior lenders against losses, while leaving the bank able to meet the needs of its customers. Banks must maintain capital commensurate with the amount of risks that th
40、ey take and hold enough to weather financial storms4. liquidity5. Another major issue that underscores the need for strong capital level is the increasing diversity and complexity of risks to which banks are exposed today.6. Banks are taking on credit risk in a variety of forms, whether via margin l
41、eading or transactions in over-the-counter derivatives, which expose them to large amounts of counter-party risk.7. futures brokerage8. It will be particularly challenging for banks in emerging market countries with high-risk profiles and opaque financial statements to prove to clients and stakehold
42、ers they are operating in a safe and sound manner.9. Many banks are, in fact, focusing more attention on assessing their own risk profiles and evaluating the amount of capital they need to cope with adverse outcomes in normal times and under reasonable stress scenarios.10. As banks become more skill
43、ed at identifying and quantifying their risks, they should be well positioned to enhance risk disclosures and better inform investors.12. Thus, it has become apparent that the long-term relevance and efficacy of the Accord is waning for the most sophisticated institutions.13. As banks develop discip
44、lined internal approaches to evaluating capital adequacy and capital plans, and enhance disclosures, supervisors will be able to place greater reliance on all three and reduce regulatory inconsistencies.14. To achieve this, we must fashion a set of standards that does not greatly distort incentives
45、and is more meaningful in todays complex market.15. By year end, we hope to have made great strides in furthering our objectives. A well-designed framework that holds true to these objectives is in the best interest of banks, their supervisors, investors and customers.Exercise 21 凯恩斯的学说并非适用于解决所有的经济问
46、题。Keyness theory do not always hold true for all economic problems. 香港媒体盛传，上海为建立国际金融中心势必要与香港一争高下。Hong Kong media famed that shanghai will via with Hong Kong in order to establish a international financial center.近年来在金融创新方面进展迅速In recent year, we have made great stride in financial innovation.索罗斯（Geor
47、ge Soros）在俄罗斯败走麦城之后，对冲基金在投资者中的声望开始走向衰落。After George Soros failing in Russian, the reputation of hedge fund in investors heart began to wane.金融管理当局应该知道在风暴袭来之时如何应付复杂的局面。The financial administration authority should know how to cope with the situation when storm comes.中国实行改革开放政策在全球范围产生了巨大的反响。The carry out of Chinese reform and opening policy has implemented the great repercussion around the world.股市和房地产的过度投机必将招致重大的损失。The excessive speculation in stock market and real estate market will incur great l
