1、 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit- /researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse doe
2、s and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment d
3、ecision. 1 HIGHLIGHTS FROM CANADA Estimate / Target Price Changes Astral Media (ACMa.TO, NEUTRAL) C. Moore (Pg. 3) Video Saved the Radio Star; Lowering Estimates Acadian Timber Corp. (ADN.TO, NEUTRAL) A. M. Kuske (Pg. 3) A plethora of positives? Raising Estimates Corus Entertainment Inc (NVS) (CJRb.
4、TO, NEUTRAL) C. Moore (Pg. 4) Quarter Missed but Dividend Raised; Lowering Estimates Canadian Pacific Railways (CP, OUTPERFORM) C. Ceraso (Pg. 4) New Operating Structure Underway, Raising Estimates Lundin Mining Inc (LUN.TO, OUTPERFORM) R. Profiti (Pg. 5) Q3 Impacted by Production Challenges; Sembla
5、na Discovery A Key Highlight, Lowering Estimates Company Updates Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM.TO, OUTPERFORM) A. Soni (Pg. 5) Five mines running well, only Pinos left to fix Goldcorp Inc. (G.TO, OUTPERFORM) A. Soni (Pg. 6) First Read: G beats on low costs, doubles dividend Royal Bank of Canada (R
6、Y.TO, NEUTRAL) G. Dechaine (Pg. 6) Best positioned for a domestic lending slowdown HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE UNITED STATES Equity Quantitative Research Quantitative Analysis P. Patel (Pg. 7) Growth and Value After the Crisis Initiating / Assuming / Reinstating Coverage Black Hills Corporation (BKH, NEUTRA
7、L) D. Eggers (Pg. 7) A Diversified Growth Story, INITIATING Coverage with a NEUTRAL Rating and Target Price of $33 Focus List Procter Reiterate Outperform - Revising Estimates Estimate / Target Price Changes ConocoPhillips (COP, OUTPERFORM) E. Westlake (Pg. 9) Rising Cash Margins Drive Value Despite
8、 Weak Growth, Revising Estimates Visa Inc. (V, OUTPERFORM) M. Orenbuch (Pg. 9) 4Q10 Results Demonstrate Solid Execution Although Durbin Uncertainty Lingers, Raising Estimates Mosaic Co (MOS, NEUTRAL) E. Yip (Pg. 10) Increasing Estimates and TP to $70 (from $59) on Favorable South Fort Meade Legal De
9、velopment; Maintaining Neutral on Valuation Las Vegas Sands (LVS, NEUTRAL) J. Simkins (Pg. 10) The Big Score in Singapore: Huge 3Q Beat Takes Lofty Expectations Up Another Notch, Raising Ests Reiterate Outperform - Revising Ests Mkt Est NA; Prior 452K) - 8:30am ! Kansas City Fed Production (Oct) (CS
10、 Est NA; Mkt Est NA; Prior 11) - 11:00am ! St. Louis Financial Stress Index (Oct 15) (CS Est NA; Mkt Est NA; Prior 0.34) ! UST 7-Year Note Auction - 1:00pm Thursday, October 28, 2010Americas / CanadaEquity ResearchGlobal Product MarketingFIRST EDITION CANADIAN ALERT Thursday, October 28, 2010 To rec
11、eive this product, please specify your Credit Suisse contact and email adrian.mogoscredit- or call (416) 352-4595 2 Company Updates Oracle Corporation (ORCL, OUTPERFORM) P. Winslow (Pg. 13) Investment In Mellanox Is All About Exalove Flowserve Corp. (FLS, OUTPERFORM) H. Mazari (Pg. 13) Buy On Weakne
12、ss: The World Is Not Ending! HIGHLIGHTS FROM EUROPE Rating Changes SOCO International (SIA.L, NEUTRAL) D. Mirzai (Pg. 14) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform; Trading at core value Focus List SAP (SAPG.F, OUTPERFORM) P. Winslow (Pg. 14) Remove from Credit Suisse Europe Focus List; Maintain Outperfo
13、rm Estimate / Target Price Changes Acerinox (ACX.MC, UNDERPERFORM) M. Shillaker (Pg. 15) EPS estimates cut post Q3 results - review Heineken (HEIN.AS, NEUTRAL) A. Bucalo (Pg. 15) EPS estimates cut post Q3 Interim Management Statement - review Company Updates Kazakhmys Plc (KAZ.L, OUTPERFORM) L. Fitz
14、patrick (Pg. 16) Q3 Production results; in line with guidance Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSa.L, NEUTRAL) K. Fustier (Pg. 17) Q3 results review; EPS ahead of our Chinas October tea leaves head south HIGHLIGHTS FROM NJA Estimate / Target Price Changes PTT Exploration expansion guidance maintained HIGHLIG
15、HTS FROM AUSTRALIA Company Updates Atlas Iron (AGO.AX, NEUTRAL) N. Littlewood (Pg. 20) SepQ as expected, port constraints to ease in DecQ Origin Energy (ORG.AX, NEUTRAL) S. McCullagh (Pg. 20) 1Q Production HIGHLIGHTS FROM LATIN AMERICA Company Updates Vale (VALE, OUTPERFORM) I. Fadel (Pg. 21) All-ti
16、me high earnings beat consensus Industry Updates Brazilian Utilities V. Canheu (Pg. 21) Free-market saturation? Thursday, October 28, 2010 To receive this product, please specify your Credit Suisse contact and email adrian.mogoscredit- or call (416) 352-4595 3 To view Credit Suisse Research on the w
17、eb please click http:/www.credit- If you would like to register for Credit Suisse Research and Analytics please click https:/ or contact your Credit Suisse representative. HIGHLIGHTS FROM CANADA ESTIMATE / TARGET PRICE CHANGES Astral Media (ACMa.TO) NEUTRAL C. Moore CP: C$ 39.35 TP: C$ 42 CAP: C$ 2.
18、1b 416 352 4589 Video Saved the Radio Star; Lowering Estimates ! Strong TV results offset Weaker than expected Radio: Revenue growth of 9% y/y was 3% ahead of our estimates on stronger television advertising revenue. Adjusting for the impact of retroactive copyright payments, EBITDA of $74 million (
19、-3% y/y) was slightly below our $76 million as weaker than expected margins in radio and outdoor was mostly offset by a strong television performance. Adjusted EPS of $0.67 was ahead of our $0.63 on a lower tax rate in the quarter. ! Investment Case: Astral Media should remain a core media holding g
20、iven its well positioned asset mix, strong brands, near-term upside to the recovery and strong free cash flow. Our more balanced NEUTRAL rating is predicated on the limited upside to normalized valuations, earning estimates that in our view reflect Astrals operating leverage potential, and expectati
21、ons for more moderate advertising growth as we progress through F2011. ! Catalysts: Upcoming catalysts for the company include: 1) The potential for dividend increases and more aggressive share buybacks in F2011; 2) Astrals leverage is now 1.9x net debt/EBITDA providing financial flexibility should
22、any M 3) Advertising visibility remains limited although the recovery remains on track in Q1.11 with radio advertising revenues expected up mid single digit and TV advertising trending low double digit; 4) In Outdoor, the company expects to see an expanded rollout of digital boards in Toronto in fis
23、cal 2011 which should support continued momentum in Outdoor. ! Valuation: We have made only minor changes to our estimates to reflect the quarters results. Our 2011 EPS declines slightly to $3.21 from $3.23. 2012 EPS declines to $3.41 from $3.45. Astral is currently trading at 8.6x EV/EBITDA on our
24、2011 estimates with a dividend yield of 1.3%. Full Note Acadian Timber Corp. (ADN.TO) NEUTRAL A. M. Kuske CP: C$ 6.16 TP: C$ 6.50 CAP: C$ 102.1m 416 352 4561 A plethora of positives? Raising Estimates ! Earnings review: Acadian Timber Corp. reported Q3 2010 earnings per share of C$0.09 in Q3 2010. T
25、hat figure was higher than our estimated EPS of C$0.01, the Streets C$0.024 and the indicated -C$0.01 to C$0.07 range. We believe the results highlight some positives. In our view, a more robust recovery for North American exposed timberland companies like Acadian is unlikely until signs of a sustai
26、ned US housing market recovery appear. In light of the nature of the timber industry and specific factors, we do not place undue emphasis on quarterly results. ! Selected highlights: Notable items included: (a) ADN expects pulpwood prices to remain stable through Q4 with likely softening in demand l
27、ate in the year; (b) ADN remains cautious on softwood sawlog market as facing weak demand and soft pricing through Q1 2011; (c) Q3 2010 EBITDA was C$4.8m (27% of sales) versus C$1.3m (9% of sales) in Q3 2009; (d) Acadian was able to obtain a commitment letter for a 5-year US$72.5m loan to refinance
28、the maturing loan at a 3.4% rate (potential incremental cash flow of C$1.3m from interest cost savings); and, (e) harvest levels slightly increased from a total of 341.3k m3 in Q3 2009 to 348.7k m3 in Q3 2010. ! Longer-term value: Generally, we like timberlands assets over an extended period of time
29、. In the near term Acadian may outperform as a result of some potential restocking issues, however, we remain less confident about the valuation until firm evidence of a sustainable recovery is demonstrated. ! Valuation: Our earnings estimate for 2010, 2011 and 2012 increased to C$0.36, C$0.43 and C
30、$0.54 from C$0.29, C$0.41 and C$0.52, respectively. Our Neutral rating and C$6.50 target price are primarily obtained by our longer-term financial model that forecasts multiple harvests and planting cycles until 2025 and utilizes a discounted cash flow valuation. Finally, we apply a 3.1% yield based
31、 on the forecasted dividend to obtain our C$6.50 target price. We reiterate our Neutral rating. Full Note Thursday, October 28, 2010 To receive this product, please specify your Credit Suisse contact and email adrian.mogoscredit- or call (416) 352-4595 4 Corus Entertainment Inc (NVS) (CJRb.TO) NEUTR
32、AL C. Moore CP: C$ 22.08 TP: C$ 23.50 CAP: C$ 1.8b 416 352 4589 Quarter Missed but Dividend Raised; Lowering Estimates ! Higher Operating Costs: Corus reported Q410 results before markets opened Wednesday (27th October) and hosted a conference call. Overall revenue growth of +4% y/y was slightly bel
33、ow our +5% y/y estimate while underlying EBITDA (excluding retroactive copyright payments) of $54 million (-10% y/y) missed our $62 million forecast on higher operating costs in radio and television. EPS (ex restructuring) was $0.18 below our $0.27 on the EBITDA underperformance. ! Investment Case:
34、We believe Corus should remain a core media holding given its asset mix, strong free cash flow and near-term upside from the advertising recovery. Our more balanced Neutral rating is predicated on earning estimates that now reflect the recovery, more limited upside to normalized valuation and more d
35、ifficult advertising comparisons as we progress through F2011. Following the quarter we have lowered our 2011 EBITDA slightly to $289 from $293 million and EPS estimate to $1.66 from $1.68. Our 2012 EPS estimates is reduced to $1.83 from $1.93. ! Catalysts: 1) Corus increased their dividend 25% to $
36、0.75 p.a. The dividend now represents a payout ratio of 43% of our EPS estimate; 2) The Oprah Winfrey Network is launching in early 2011 and should provide a lift to specialty advertising revenue in H2.11. Early advertiser feedback suggests the new service has good potential; 3) Advertising visibili
37、ty remains limited although the growth recovery appears on track for Q1.11 with radio tracking up mid to high single digits; 4) Share buy backs are not a near-term priority owing to Managements desire to retain flexibility should any M Semblana Discovery A Key Highlight, Lowering Estimates ! Event:
38、LUN reported adjusted 3Q10 FD EPS of $0.11. Results were below our estimate of $0.19 and consensus of $0.17. Revenues of $215Mln were lower than expected (our estimate $291Mln) on lower than expected copper and zinc volumes (17Kt and 17.8Kt, versus our 18Kt and 21.7Kt, respectively). ! View: Slight
39、negative; copper guidance lower. Unexpected delays in mining two high-grade stopes impeded production in Q3, as did geotechnical issues and 10-days of industrial action at Aguablanca. LUN does not expect to entirely make up the shortfall in FY10. As a result, copper/nickel guidance was lowered to 81
40、.5Kt/6.5Kt (from 84.5/7.5Kt). Preliminary plans for FY11 indicate copper production, including LUNs attributable share at Tenke Fungurume, of 115Kt; zinc production of 125Kt; and lead production of 40Kt. New FY11 copper production guidance was about 10% higher than our estimate and we have adjusted
41、our model accordingly, along with higher exploration expense. As a result, our FY10/11 EPS goes to $0.49/0.78 (from $0.52/0.90). ! President and CEO Phil Wright has advised the Board of Directors that he plans to retire sometime during the first half of 2011. The Board has appointed a committee to a
42、ddress a succession and transition plan. ! Catalyst: Promising new discovery at Neves Corvo. LUN announced discovery of a new copper-rich massive sulphide deposit, named Semblana. Semblana is the first potential new orebody since the discovery of Lombador in 1988. Although early stages, Semblana is
43、close to existing infrastructure, remains open in almost all directions, and could help offset maturing Neves deposit as the source of high-grade copper at Neves Corvo. ! Valuation: Our TP of C$7.50/share is based on a 60/40 weighting of 0.9x our NAVPS of C$8.38/share and 5x FY11/12 EV/EBITDA. Full
44、Note COMPANY UPDATES Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM.TO) OUTPERFORM V A. Soni CP: US$ 72 TP: US$ 86 CAP: US$ 12b 416 352 4587 Five mines running well, only Pinos left to fix ! Event: Q3/10 adj. EPS of $0.44 below CS BKH recently resolved all rate cases related to the Wygen III coal plant and is curr
45、ently building 380 MW of regulated and IPP generation in Colorado, supporting 2010-12 annual earnings growth of 14%. ! Leverage to commodity prices and power demand recovery. BKH has exposure to market drivers across its business including regulated off-system sales, merchant generation, E in additi
46、on to a slightly below group dividend yield of 4.5%. Our 2010-12 EPS estimates are $1.94, $1.95, and $2.52; we reach our $33 target price through a sum-of-the-parts valuation employing business specific traditional multiples. Full Note Thursday, October 28, 2010 To receive this product, please speci
47、fy your Credit Suisse contact and email adrian.mogoscredit- or call (416) 352-4595 8 FOCUS LIST Procter Reiterate Outperform - Revising Estimates ! What is new: We believe three factors are overshadowing very good 3Q10 results: ! EBITDA margins: There are two issues: i) Margins missed for the qtr. T
48、his is minor. When you adjust for the gross add beat, margins beat expectations. Most investors are happy to take the near-term margin dilution for higher subs. ii) EBITDA estimates for 2010 have to come down again. This is a bigger issue. Our 2010 EBITDA estimates have come down every quarter; howe
49、ver, it has been driven by a steadily improving sub forecast. Pre-CPGA margins have improved on a y / y basis for the last 3 qtrs. In addition, CPGA has declined steadily as gross adds have grown. Net-net: while near-term margins are falling, the value of the enterprise is rising. ! CLWR: There are two potential bad outcomes - both are unlikely in our view: i) Sprint could bid for all of CLWR; ii) lack of resolution could drag on indefinitely (Sprint w
