1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010 China property weekly Property sales for the week ending Oct 31, 2010 China Property Ryan LiAC (852) 2800-8529 Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 Suzy Tian (852) 2800 8552 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited See page 8 for analyst certificatio
2、n and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investor
3、s should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. China developers share price index1994=100 050100150200250300350400Jan-04 Feb-05 Apr-06 May-07 Jul-08 Sep-09 Oct-10Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Primary sales down 6% W/W: Primary residential sales fell anot
4、her 6% W/W to an average of 2,734 units/day in the eight cities we track. Chengdus sales continues to show positive trend with a +26% W/W growth; sales in Shenzhen (+1% W/W), Beijing (+7% W/W) and Tianjin (+13% W/W) remain stable; Chongqings sales was down 28% W/W mainly due to the front-end loaded
5、effect of the Housing Fair. For the other three cities with Home-Purchase Restriction in place (Shanghai, Hangzhou and Guangzhou), sales continue to trend down with a W/W change of -7% to -28%. Volume is now 10% above the 2008-2009 average level. From ground check we see that certain high-end projec
6、ts received good footfall with transactions continuously happening, but the situation is reversed for mass market development. We continue to think that the volume will continue to trend down in the weeks to come, with price remain stable. 0.9% increase in mortgage rate for first time home-buyers: A
7、ccording to China Securities Post and CCTV, on Oct 30, most commercial banks received verbal notice from the CBRC to raise the mortgage rates applied on first-time home buyers to 0.85x PBoC standard rate, vs. 0.70x previously. Based on the long term PBoC rate of 6.14%, such changes imply a 0.93% inc
8、rease. That said, based on our ground checks in first and second tier cities, it is nearly impossible to get a mortgage based on the 0.70x PBoC rate starting April this year, hence impact should be minimal. National affordability based on 0.85x PBoC standard rate is 37%. High-end project launches ar
9、e dragged: Guangzhou R # Due to system upgrade, some sales may not be able to be properly registered during the week, sales figures might be distorted. 3 Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010Ryan Li (852) 2800-8529 Table 3: Secondary market average daily transactions for the week ending Bei
10、jing M/M Shenzhen M/M Shenzhen ASP (Rmb/sqm) M/M Chengdu M/M Tianjin M/M Tianjin ASP (Rmb/sqm) M/M Hangzhou M/M Hangzhou ASP (Rmb/sqm) M/M 4 wks ending Nov-09 998 55% 788 53% 5,797 5% 192 18% 731 63% 6,115 2% 175 23% 17,337 2% Dec-09 1,319 32% 1,149 46% 6,274 8% 246 28% 630 -14% 6,154 1% 158 -10% 17
11、,359 0%Jan-10 510 -61% 635 -45% 5,901 -6% 160 -35% 302 -52% 6,533 6% 43 -73% 17,732 2% Feb-10 287 -44% 264 -58% 5,648 -4% 71 -56% 163 -46% 6,603 1% 26 -40% 17,171 -3%Mar-10 704 145% 399 51% 5,917 5% 135 91% 254 56% 5,562 -16% 117 352% 19,072 11% Apr-10 1,127 60% 501 25% 5,682 -4% 214 77% 441 74% 6,7
12、12 21% 147 26% 20,974 10% May-10 611 -46% 658 31% 5,896 4% 141 -37% 218 -51% 6,700 0% 38 -74% 19,920 -5%Jun-10 328 -46% 336 -49% 5,937 1% 129 -8% 222 2% 6,810 2% 35 -8% 19,933 0% Jul-10 340 4% 357 6% 5,639 -5% 100 -23% 207 -7% 6,828 0% 41 18% 20,362 2%Aug-10 391 15% 519 46% 5,714 1% 129 29% 232 12%
13、6,741 -1% 51 23% 20,269 0% Sep-10 520 33% 500 -4% 6,240 9% 138 7% 283 22% 7,016 4% 74 45% 20,716 2%Oct-10 541 4% 505 1% 5,937 -5% 154 12% 347 23% 6,997 0% 59 -20% 20,500 -1% W/W W/W W/W W/W W/W W/W W/W W/W July-10 7/4/2010 379 7% 265 -17% 5,460 -6% 66 -48% 150 -7% 6,813 1% 36 -4% 19,433 -1% 7/11/201
14、0 310 -18% 354 34% 5,659 4% 100 2% 151 1% 6,765 -1% 33 -10% 19,973 3%7/18/2010 327 6% 413 17% 5,627 -1% 93 -7% 141 -7% 6,729 -1% 45 38% 21,245 6% 7/25/2010 343 5% 394 -4% 5,809 3% 109 18% 208 6% 7,004 4% 50 12% 20,798 -2%Aug-10 8/1/2010 396 15% 455 15% 6,014 4% 95 -13% 204 -2% 6,553 -6% 57 13% 19,67
15、5 -5% 8/8/2010 314 -21% 350 -23% 5,739 -5% 123 30% 220 8% 6,693 2% 46 -19% 19,412 -1%8/15/2010 363 16% 431 23% 5,543 -3% 148 20% 222 1% 6,765 1% 51 11% 21,058 8% 8/22/2010 412 13% 362 -16% 5,442 -2% 139 -6% 246 11% 6,940 3% 45 -12% 20,443 -3%8/29/2010 471 14% 487 35% 5,833 7% 139 0% 270 10% 6,757 -3
16、% 54 19% 20,758 2% Sep-10 9/5/2010 496 5% 854 0% 6,147 5% 152 9% 266 -1% 6,901 2% 61 14% 19,854 -4% 9/12/2010 516 4% 396 -54% 6,605 7% 163 8% 281 6% 6,988 1% 72 17% 20,817 5%9/19/2010 608 18% 437 10% 6,084 -8% 139 -15% 294 4% 7,053 1% 82 14% 21,423 3% 9/26/2010 461 -24% 312 -29% 6,126 1% 100 -28% 29
17、3 0% 7,123 1% 80 -3% 20,772 -3%Oct-10 10/3/2010 546 18% 755 142% 6,008 -2% 144 43% 344 18% 7,146 0% 63 -21% 19,838 -4% 10/10/2010 257 -53% 140 -82% 5,834 -3% 81 -44% 314 -9% 6,778 -5% 55 -12% 20,784 5% 10/17/10 629 145% 280 101% 7,744 33% 166 105% 402 28% 7,067 4% 65 18% 20,623 -1%10/24/10 559 -11%
18、479 71% 5,845 -25% 184 11% 321 -20% 6,971 -1% 54 -17% 20,054 -3% 10/31/10 713 28% 874 82% 4,254 -27% 197 7% 354 10% 7,024 1% 59 10% 21,203 6%Source: Soufun, Focus, city real estate trading centers. 4 Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010Ryan Li (852) 2800-8529 Table 4: Monthly primary sales
19、 Million sqm Beijing Shanghai Hangzhou Guangzhou Shenzhen Chongqing Chengdu Tianjin Jan-08 0.91 1.53 0.20 0.35 0.27 1.13 0.57 0.43 Feb-08 0.39 0.72 0.09 0.23 0.06 0.53 0.32 0.21 Mar-08 0.66 1.84 0.16 0.38 0.19 0.79 0.63 0.53 Apr-08 0.65 1.41 0.20 0.40 0.33 0.89 0.69 0.47 May-08 0.91 1.72 0.30 0.39 0
20、.38 1.25 0.52 0.51 Jun-08 1.00 1.41 0.19 0.67 0.30 0.73 0.41 0.49 Jul-08 0.71 1.19 0.18 0.61 0.26 1.05 0.37 0.40 Aug-08 0.41 1.01 0.13 0.61 0.28 0.57 0.44 0.32 Sep-08 0.74 0.99 0.17 0.51 0.34 0.87 0.46 0.33 Oct-08 0.79 0.86 0.13 0.36 0.34 1.23 0.41 0.43 Nov-08 0.81 1.03 0.17 0.54 0.36 1.01 0.46 0.49
21、 Dec-08 0.81 1.56 0.19 0.49 0.71 1.10 0.55 0.42 Jan-09 0.73 0.81 0.13 0.46 0.52 0.70 0.54 0.29 Feb-09 0.92 1.22 0.17 0.47 0.36 1.41 0.85 0.57 Mar-09 1.69 2.31 0.40 0.64 0.69 1.83 0.92 1.24 Apr-09 2.12 2.57 0.69 0.83 0.79 2.26 1.02 1.08 May-09 1.98 2.69 1.08 0.67 0.76 1.78 1.15 1.28 Jun-09 2.00 2.66
22、1.36 0.72 0.66 1.68 0.67 1.16 Jul-09 2.06 2.68 0.61 1.26 0.55 1.75 0.96 1.34 Aug-09 1.69 2.40 0.84 1.26 0.39 1.73 0.92 1.42 Sep-09 1.67 2.04 0.65 0.91 0.33 2.05 0.96 1.22 Oct-09 1.63 2.44 0.61 1.05 0.50 2.97 1.05 1.09 Nov-09 1.89 2.19 0.56 0.43 0.47 1.91 1.45 1.24 Dec-09 2.03 2.63 0.71 0.89 0.64 2.4
23、1 1.50 1.31 Jan-10 1.28 1.20 0.18 0.58 0.36 1.66 0.30 0.86 Feb-10 0.76 0.60 0.09 0.52 0.09 1.18 0.40 0.37 Mar-10 1.15 1.26 0.25 0.62 0.26 1.98 0.69 0.89 Apr-10 1.46 1.44 0.41 0.54 0.29 2.59 0.78 1.08 May-10 0.63 0.73 0.07 0.55 0.12 1.20 0.58 0.63 Jun-10 0.53 0.88 0.06 0.54 0.15 1.36 0.44 0.50 Jul-10
24、 0.65 1.07 0.19 0.38 0.14 1.49 0.35 0.63 Aug-10 0.79 1.40 0.32 0.41 0.26 1.89 0.54 0.71 Sep-10 1.18 1.63 0.50 0.47 0.42 2.30 0.82 0.84 M/M %Chg 49% 17% 57% 13% 61% 22% 52% 19% Y/Y % Chg -29% -20% -13% -49% 26% 12% -21% -31%YTD % Chg -43% -48% -60% -43% -59% -2% -39% -32% Source: Soufun, City real es
25、tate trading centres, J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 5: Supply outlook GFA available for sale# Avg take-up in 9M10 Months of supply based on 9M10 sales Avg Take-up in past 12 months Months of supply MM sqm MM sqm Sales/mthly take-up MM sqm Sales/mthly take-up Guangzhou 5.21 0.49 10.6 0.54 9.7 Shenzhen
26、 2.57 0.24 10. 0.30 8.Beijing 12.86 0.94 13.7 1.16 11.0 Shanghai 6.48 1.13 5.7 1.43 4.5 Hangzhou* 2.80 0.21 13.3 0.28 9.9 Chongqing 9.31 1.68 5.5 1.85 5.0 Chengdu 5.74 0.55 10. 0.83 6.9 Source: City real estate trading center websites, J.P. Morgan estimates. #Defined as units with presale permits bu
27、t not sold and unsold stocks. *Includes six major districts; excludes Yuhang and Xiaoshan. Includes six main districts only; districts such as Shuangliu, Pixian, Wenjiang, Xindu, etc. are excluded. 5 Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010Ryan Li (852) 2800-8529 Table 6: Summary of home-purch
28、ase restrictions (in ascending order of level of restrictions) With residency Without residency Family with NO home-ownership Family with ONE home-ownership Family with TWO home-ownership Family with NO tax payment proof Family with tax payment proof there are currently no restriction on secondary h
29、ome * Guangzhou: In addition to the above, announcement measures also restricted home-ownership for citizen aged below 18 Keys: NONE: NO new-home purchase allowed ONE: At most ONE new-home purchase allowed TWO: At most TWO new-home purchases allowed Source: Soufun, , sina, local government websites
30、Figure 1: Policy chart JPM China property index (1994 = 100) 050100150200250300350400Jan-04 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10loan-to-value ratio raised to 70% for purhase of 2nd propertyForbid land sales through pri
31、vate negotiations after Aug 31; to take bk land if set idle for 2 yrs; monthly payment limited to 50% household income 27 bps rate hike Mortgage rate hike (5.31% to 5.51%); Shanghai raised downpayment rqt to 30%5.5% capital gain tax on resi pty sold within 2 yrs of purchase“8-point“ measures; Resale
32、 (flipping) of uncompleted units banned15-point measures;5.5% tax on sales for flat resale witihin 5 yrs of purchase90/70% ruleraised bank RRR(7% to 7.5%)Enforce idle land penalty“six“ measuresForeign fund restriction followed by capital gain taxIncrease land use charges and resettlement compensatio
33、nEnforcement of LAT9 RRR hikes in Jan-Nov07 (from 9.0% to 13.5%)27 rate cut and RRR cut + Stimulative measures from local govtRate hikeIncrease downpayment requirement for 2nd home to 1.1x PBoC rate27 bps rate hike Ban IPO proceeds to buy landAllow foreign companies to register at provincial levelsD
34、eed tax raised to 3% for non-ordinary housingStimulative measures from Chengdu govt108bps rate cut;Reduction of transaction tax on resale of homes Rmb900 billion public housing plan27bps rate cutrestrictions onforeign homebuying in Beijing lifted; CQ announced tax rebate policyMin. capital rqt lower
35、ed to 30% (20% for ordinary hse) from 35% Stimulative measures from Cetnral govt eff Nov1CBRC re-iterates 40% downpayment rqt for 2nd home mortgageSale slock-up period restored to five years from two years50% initial land prm payment rqt“11 measures“raised RRR RRR hike 70% land supply on small-size
36、* Excluding Vanke, Renhe and CCL Source: Company data, Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates. 7 Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010Ryan Li (852) 2800-8529 Figure 2: China Property: NAV discount chart (ex Vanke) -80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%May 03 Jul 04 Sep 05 Nov 06 Jan 08 Mar 09 May 10+1 St
37、d dev+2 Std devLong Term Avg: -22%-1 Std dev-2 Std devSource: Bloomberg , J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Figure 3: China Property: Forward P/E chart (ex Vanke) X +2 Std dev+1 Std dev-1 Std dev0102030405060Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10Average = 17.3xSource: Bloomberg,
38、J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Figure 4: China Property - Forward P/BV (ex Vanke) X +2 Stdev+1 Stdev-1 Stdev-2 Stdev0.01.02.03.04.05.06.003 04 05 06 07 08 09 10Average = 2.1XSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. 8 Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 November 2010Ryan Li (852) 280
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42、the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in t
43、he analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research an
44、alysts use the same rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the se
45、ctor and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Ryan Li: C C Land (1224.HK), Hopson Development Holdings (0754.HK), KWG Property Holding Ltd. (1813.HK), Poly (HK) Investments Limited (011
46、9.HK), Renhe Commercial Holdings (1387.HK) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2010 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 43% 12% IB clients* 49% 45% 33% JPMS Equity Research Coverage 43% 48% 8% IB clients
47、* 69% 60% 50% *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rati
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