1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 August 2010 China property weekly Property sales for week ending Aug 2, 2010 China Property Lucia Kwong, CFAAC (852) 2800-8526 Ryan Li (852) 2800-8529 Raymond Ngai, CFA (852) 2800-8527 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited See page 8 for analyst certificati
2、on and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investo
3、rs should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. China developers share price index1994=100 050100150200250300350400Jan-04 Jan-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 May-09 Jun-10Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Sales volume close to normal levels: Primary home sales in th
4、e major cities rose three weeks in a row. Sales volume averaged 2,210 /day in the eight cities we track, up 26% w/w and was 12% below the long-term (2008-09) average daily volume levels. Transaction volume in Beijing rose 134% w/w to 280 units/day off a very low base, and was up 98% w/w if the price
5、-cap projects sold for the week are excluded. For other cities, sales volume increased 15-74% except Shanghai and Hangzhou where sales were almost flat. Secondary transactions also moved up particularly in Hangzhou and Beijing. Strong sales fetched by R excludes Yuhang and Xiaoshan. Includes six mai
6、n districts only; districts such as Shuangliu, Pixian, Wenjiang, Xindu, etc. are excluded. 5 Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 August 2010Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 Figure 1: Policy chart JPM China property index (1994 = 100) 050100150200250300350400Jan-04 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun
7、-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10loan-to-value ratio raised to 70% for purhase of 2nd propertyForbid land sales through private negotiations after Aug 31; to take bk land if set idle for 2 yrs; monthly payment limited to 50% household income 27 bps rate
8、 hike Mortgage rate hike (5.31% to 5.51%); Shanghai raised downpayment rqt to 30%5.5% capital gain tax on resi pty sold within 2 yrs of purchase“8-point“ measures; Resale (flipping) of uncompleted units banned15-point measures;5.5% tax on sales for flat resale witihin 5 yrs of purchase90/70% rulerai
9、sed bank RRR(7% to 7.5%)Enforce idle land penalty“six“ measuresForeign fund restriction followed by capital gain taxIncrease land use charges and resettlement compensationEnforcement of LAT9 RRR hikes in Jan-Nov07 (from 9.0% to 13.5%)27 rate cut and RRR cut + Stimulative measures from local govtRate
10、 hikeIncrease downpayment requirement for 2nd home to 1.1x PBoC rate27 bps rate hike Ban IPO proceeds to buy landAllow foreign companies to register at provincial levelsDeed tax raised to 3% for non-ordinary housingStimulative measures from Chengdu govt108bps rate cut;Reduction of transaction tax on
11、 resale of homes Rmb900 billion public housing plan27bps rate cutrestrictions onforeign homebuying in Beijing lifted; CQ announced tax rebate policyMin. capital rqt lowered to 30% (20% for ordinary hse) from 35% Stimulative measures from Cetnral govt eff Nov1CBRC re-iterates 40% downpayment rqt for
12、2nd home mortgageSale slock-up period restored to five years from two years50% initial land prm payment rqt“11 measures“raised RRR RRR hike 70% land supply on small-size Exclude Vanke for sector NAV discount. 8 Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 August 2010Lucia Kwong, CFA (852) 2800-8526 Analyst Cert
13、ification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with respect to each securi
14、ty or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be di
15、rectly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight Over the next six to twel
16、ve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. Neutral Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the
17、analysts teams) coverage universe. Underweight Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe. J.P. Morgan Cazenoves UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research analysts use the same
18、rating categories; however, each stocks expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE All Share Index, not to those analysts coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analysts teams coverage universe is the sector and/or country
19、shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying analyst(s) coverage universe. Coverage Universe: Lucia Kwong, CFA: Agile Property Holdings Ltd (3383.HK), Beijing Capital Land (2868.HK), China Resources Land (1109.HK), Franshion Properties (China) Ltd. (081
20、7.HK), Glorious Property (0845.HK), Great Eagle (0041.HK), Greentown China Holdings (3900.HK), Hang Lung Group (0010.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), Hongkong Land (HKLD.SI), Shanghai Forte Land (2337.HK), Shimao Property Holdings (0813.HK), Shui On Land Ltd (0272.HK), Sino-Ocean Land (3377.HK)
21、J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010 Overweight (buy) Neutral (hold) Underweight (sell) JPM Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 42% 12% IB clients* 49% 46% 31% JPMSI Equity Research Coverage 44% 48% 9% IB clients* 68% 61% 53% *Percentage of investment banking clients
22、 in each rating category. For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category. Valuation and Risks: Please see the most re
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