1、 |Special Report |Special analysis of key topics 18 May 2010 Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2010 http:/ A new developing-world order The Great Recession accelerated the shift of global economic power and increased the need
2、for better policy co-ordination among major developing economies A new trade order that fosters South-South trade and reduces the developing worlds dependence on the West is key to building this common platform A new financial order that facilitates the rebalancing of financial flows and promotes gr
3、owth, financial inclusion and stability is also essential Nicholas Kwan, +852 2821 1013 Standard Chartered Bank, Hong Kong Head of Research, East Nicholas.K Tai Hui, +65 6530 3464 Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Regional Head of Research, South East Asia Tai.H Razia Khan, +44 20 7885 6914 Standar
4、d Chartered Bank, United Kingdom Head of Macroeconomic Research Razia.K Kelvin Lau, +852 3983 8565 Standard Chartered Bank, Hong Kong Regional Economist Kelvin.L Special Report | 18 May 2010 I. A new developing-world order 2 The global economy is experiencing a watershed: the Great Recession unveile
5、d a tectonic shift in global economic power from the West to the East. This was clearly reflected in the replacement of the G8 by the G20 as the leading global economic forum in early 2009. This shift is not the result of an economic accident, but the outcome of decades of subtle but steady economic
6、 developments. Over the past three decades, the share of global output (in PPP terms) of the G3 (i.e., the US, the EU and Japan) has shrunk from 56% to 47%, while that of the developing world has expanded from 40% to 49%. Chart I.1: Contribution to world economic growth (2009, PPP-based) 0.6310.2500
7、.0540.004-0.008 -0.009 -0.013-0.056-0.121-0.213-0.386-0.568-0.718-0.866-1.899-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.0ChinaIndiaIndonesiaKoreaSaudiArabiaBrazilSouthAfricaTurkeyMexicoRussiaJapanUSOthersEUTotalSources: IMF, Standard Chartered Research Among the major developing economies, China posted the most ey
8、e-catching growth, increasing its share of global GDP five-fold from 2% to 13% accounting for almost all of the 12ppt net increase in the developing worlds share of global GDP from 1980-2009. Other Asian developing countries also made good progress, almost doubling their share of global output from
9、7% to 13% during the same period. In recent years, increasing attention has also been paid to major developing economies in other regions, including Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey, driven by their rich resources and their strong growth momentum. Based on their politica
10、l significance and their economic size and contribution to world growth in 2009 (as shown in Chart I.1), we will focus our analysis on 10 major developing economies: China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey (abbreviated here as the D10). As
11、indicated in Chart I.2, these 10 economies increased their combined share of global output from 20% in 1980 to 32% in 2009. This share is now bigger than the shares of the US or EU on their own and five times that of Japan. Special Report | 18 May 2010 I. A new developing-world order (cont) 3 Chart
12、I.2: Economic shift 200920%21%6%32%2%19%198022%30%8%20%2%18%USEUJapanD10Other OECDOther developing economiesSources: IMF, Standard Chartered Research The need for a common platform The rise of developing economies should be welcomed by the world, including the West. This is because economic growth i
13、s not a zero sum game, and relatively faster growth in the developing world is a move towards more equitable, inclusive, diversified, balanced and sustainable development globally. However, the change does call for a significant adjustment of the old world order in terms of economics and finance, an
14、d forging a new world order requires bold innovation. The active participation of major new players from the developing world, such as the D10, is essential to this process. Given their varying stages of economic development and their diverse histories, cultures and geopolitical interests, it is not
15、 easy for the major developing economies to find common ground in the global economic and financial sphere. In the current environment, we believe a few key issues of common concern may provide the initial building blocks for a joint platform shared by major developing economies. 1. Trade: Levels of
16、 trade dependency vary across developing economies. But given the collapse in import demand in the major industrial economies last year and the slow, weak recovery expected in the West, there is a pressing need for developing economies to resist threats of protectionism and to explore new sources of
17、 demand and growth. The development of new trade corridors among developing economies and the need to resist trade protectionism are taking on new urgency. (A more detailed analysis of this topic can be found in section II of this report.) Special Report | 18 May 2010 I. A new developing-world order
18、 (cond) 4 2. Finance: The latest crisis has posed serious challenges to the global financial system, and has revealed the need for a rebalancing of financial flows as well as a fundamental revamp of the international financial architecture. Given that developing economies are still under-represented
19、 in many existing international financial forums, there is a risk that their voices and interests will be neglected in the construction of the new global financial order. This is especially true given the tendency of some industrialised countries to act unilaterally while relying on global or region
20、al action to solve local problems. The active participation of developing economies in the construction of the new global financial order is essential not just to the current recovery, but also to long-term financial stability including key issues like the rebalancing of global savings and investmen
21、t, the management of capital flows, the co-ordination and improvement of foreign exchange and reserve management, and the long-term development of capital and financial markets in order to support equitable and sustainable growth. (We discuss these issues in more detail in section III of this report
22、.) Ultimately, the new world order should embrace both the West and the East and both big and small, old and new players. In the interim, a more coherent and co-ordinated platform for the major developing economies is essential to the transition. The past 30 years have seen global output increase 4.
23、5 times, Repeating this economic success over the next 30 years will require much closer co-operation among both industrial and developing countries. A new world order is not just inevitable, but also very much in need and it needs to be a good one. Special Report | 18 May 2010 II. A new trade order
24、 5 Global trade has exploded in the past few decades, with emerging economies gaining share at the expense of advanced economies. This phenomenal growth was accompanied by imbalances which, for the most part, have been heavily concentrated among a small group of regions and countries namely, the lar
25、ge current account deficits in the US, and the corresponding surpluses in China, Japan, and the oil-exporting Middle East and Russia. The need to rebalance global trade forms a key part of the new world order, but there is no quick fix. For one, we believe cyclical adjustments to the latest crisis a
26、re no permanent solution to these structural imbalances. The good news is that there is no lack of incentive for developing economies to seek change in the post-crisis world with the industrial economies now having to save more and spend less, developing economies will want to find ways to boost gro
27、wth, both individually and collectively. Trade protectionist sentiment is likely to rise, especially in industrial economies, where the recovery is weak and job remains scarce. We also expect rising pressure on currencies to strengthen in Asia and the Middle East. To reduce their reliance on Western
28、 demand, Asia and the oil-exporting regions need to consume, invest and trade more among themselves. It is important for developing economies to adjust their economic structure to changes in global trade dynamics. In particular, we call for further South-South trade liberalisation, ideally by signin
29、g more free trade agreements (FTAs) to minimise trade diversion and maximise trade creation. Chart II.1: Global export volume has exploded, especially in emerging economies Index, 1991=100 50150250350450550Jan-91Jan-93Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09World export volumeAdvanced econom
30、ies export volumeEmerging economies export volumeWorld GDPSources: IMF, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Chart II.2: Emerging economies gain export share at the expense of developed economies % of world merchandise exports by region 01020304050601948 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
31、2008North America AsiaEurope Latam Middle East AfricaSources: WTO, Standard Chartered Research The global trade boom World export volume, as shown in Chart II.1, has tripled since the early 1990s, substantially outpacing world GDP growth over the same period. Behind this phenomenal growth has been a
32、 combination of global developments: Asias rapid industrialisation and Chinas WTO accession (and the realignment of global supply chain operations around these developments); the large positive supply shock as emerging markets have integrated into the global trading system; the expansion of North-So
33、uth trade flows on the back of the spending spree in the West; and the opening of new South-South trade corridors, especially riding on the global commodity boom. All of these factors, together with a low base to start with, have allowed export volumes in developing economies to rise five-fold from
34、their levels 20 years ago, with particularly steep gains observed over the past decade. Chart II.2 shows that the market-share gains by developing Special Report | 18 May 2010 II. A new trade order (cont) 6 economies most evidently developing Asia, and more recently the Middle East, Africa and Latin
35、 America have come at the expense of North American and European exports. Table II.1: Export value by country (USD bn) USD bn 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 Brazil 51 55 60 97 138 161 198 China 184 249 326 593 969 1,219 1,428 India 33 42 49 77 121 147 177 Indonesia 50 65 59 71 104 118 139 South
36、Korea 132 172 162 254 325 371 422 Russia 75 106 107 183 304 354 472 Saudi Arabia 39 78 72 126 211 235 313 South Africa 26 30 30 46 58 70 81 Turkey 27 28 36 63 86 107 132 Mexico 117 166 161 188 250 272 291 US 682 782 693 815 1,026 1,148 1,287 BRIC 343 452 543 950 1,531 1,881 2,275 D10 734 991 1,062 1
37、,698 2,566 3,054 3,653 World 5,501 6,456 6,493 9,219 12,112 13,987 16,070 Sources: WTO, Standard Chartered Research Table II.2: Share of world export value (%) % of world total 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 Brazil 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 China 3.3 3.9 5.0 6.4 8.0 8.7 8.9 India 0.6 0.7 0.8 0
38、.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 Indonesia 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 South Korea 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 Russia 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 Saudi Arabia 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.0 South Africa 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Turkey 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Mexico 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.8 US 12.4 12.1 10.7 8.
39、8 8.5 8.2 8.0 BRIC 6.2 7.0 8.4 10.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 D10 13.3 15.5 16.5 18.4 21.2 21.8 22.7 Sources: WTO, Standard Chartered Research Table II.1 shows the change in the value of exports from the D10 developing economies over time. While they collectively exported less in value terms than the US over a
40、 decade ago, these economies are now exporting almost three times more than the US. Exports from the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have ballooned from half those of the US to almost double. China alone surpassed the US in 2007. Table II.2 shows that D10 economies now account for o
41、ver one-fifth of world exports (within this grouping, the BRIC economies have become more dominant over the years). Most of the D10 economies have gained market share since the late 1990s, while the US share has declined. Mexico is also a clear exception, while Indonesia and South Africa, both havin
42、g merely maintained stable market share over time, could also be seen as underperformers (see Box II.1). Special Report | 18 May 2010 II. A new trade order (cont) 7 Box II.1: A tale of two countries not gaining export share (yet) Indonesia Industrialisation potential has yet to be tapped From the 19
43、70s until 1986, Indonesia adopted an import substitution industrialisation (ISI) strategy to reduce its dependence on imports. The government heavily protected domestic industries through tariffs and subsidies, financed by oil and gas export receipts. However, as oil prices fell sharply in the mid-1
44、980s, the government began to shift towards an export-oriented industrialisation (EOI) strategy, learning from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Indonesian government continues to adopt the EOI strategy today, although trade protection measures on products that heavily affect peoples basic needs
45、(mainly rice and some other foodstuffs) still exist. As in India, Indonesias sizeable domestic demand has taken much of the credit for the economys resilience during the latest crisis. However, its lower level of industrial development has also played a part. This makes Indonesia unlikely to be a to
46、p surplus gainer from further South-South trade liberalisation outside of commodity exports, but still a key source of domestic demand and a beneficiary of cheaper imports. Indonesia still has much to learn from policies elsewhere on how to tap its massive industrialisation potential foreign investo
47、rs, especially from within Asia, are eagerly looking at countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam as alternative manufacturing bases as the cost of doing business in China rises. For now, Indonesia ranks only 122ndin the World Banks latest Doing Business Survey, beating only the Philippines, Cambodia
48、and Laos within ASEAN. South Africa Lose some, but gain more by linking up with BRICs African exports are dominated by oil, reflecting the importance of oil exporters and the regions poor export performance otherwise. As a result, trade flows are concentrated mostly in a handful of resource-rich Afr
49、ican countries. Given the structure of their economies, many African countries have to import the majority of their manufactured goods (notably capital goods), as their own manufacturing sectors face constraints such as infrastructure deficiency or energy shortages which hamper their competitiveness. Africa, contrary to its developing-economy partners, has still not moved up from the bottom of the international production chain. Exports remain concentrated in commodities. Africa
