1、Hi3112 International Organisations“Lost Continent” Simulation Exercise and devise questions for further information which I may answer if I decide it is information which your position might reasonably have and which I may answer with incomplete or inaccurate information if I feel it will enhance th
2、e learning experience!You will therefore need to keep in mind this famous diagramWhat we know and know we know What we dont know and know we dont knowInformation which we dont know but can either seek out or we can assess the risk that it will alter our understanding of the situationWhat we know and
3、 DONT know we knowInformation we have but ignored many military and political disaster come from thisWhat we dont know and DONT know we dont knowThe stuff that will really mess up our plansInitial Problem Definition WorksheetOnce you have been assigned a position/group, you should work through the q
4、uestions in the initial worksheet which may help to start your thinking about the process;Position: Player:What do you know about your position?What sort of issues would your position have? What is your agenda? Can you identify three real world cases where a similar position exists/existed?1.2.3.Wha
5、t paralells can you draw from those cases?What attributes define your approach? What tactics would your faction/group use to advance their positionWhat additional information do you need? Can you fill in the 4 Knows? (what we know, and know we know, what we know, but dont know we know, what we dont
6、know, and know we dont know, what we we dont know and dont know we dont know it)Fill out, paste into an email and return to m.cosgraveuccie as soon as possible, and in any event by November 7th Dont worry if it is incomplete you will develop fuller versions of this as the weeks progress. You should
7、save each major version so that you have a record of how your understanding developed to refer back to at the end. I will use the submitted versions to monitor preparation and, more importantly, provide additional guidance if needed. The Position Paper The Initial position paper represents the publi
8、c starting position of your faction. It is the paper in which you lay out your case for public consumption. The initial draft position paper should be between 500 and 1,000 words in length, and should lay out major issues confronting your position in the simulation, and what public actions and optio
9、ns your position might adopt. The paper should lay out the options in an objective, neutral diplomatic style. The initial paper should be available for circulation before the Simulation. You may revise it during the simulation, and you should attach the final version as an appendix to the final essa
10、y. (It does count towards the 4,000 word requirement!)First Simulation Session:In the first simulation session you will present your opening position, and endeavor to sell your preferred option(s) to the group., while exploring the scope for compromise and consensus. Obvious, different players will
11、have differing agendas (otherwise it wouldnt be a crisis, would it?) and you will need to take note of the positions and declared actions of other players. Between Simulation SessionsAfter the first simulation session, you should review your options to reflect the group reaction to your proposals. R
12、ough out your reflections on the progress of negotiations for later editing into a final reflection. Consider what actions have been taken by the other players, and what reactions are appropriate for your role in the simulation. Consider what is in the frame of the practical for your position, and w
13、hat actions or positions you can adopt to advance towards a resolution in which you “win”. Consider what constitutes “winning” or at least a satisfactory outcome for your position. You should rough out notes to document the development of your position -these will help you to finish the final essay.
14、Second Simulation SessionThese will repeat the first session, allowing you to advance your cause and act through diplomatic and other means to secure approval of your preferred policy options. Simulation Budget Finance and Political CapitalThere is no budget as such for the simulation, but finance i
15、s a serious constraint on which options are agreed. You are not expected to cost out options, but you should be cognizant of the magnitude of costs involved, and the likelihood that they would or would not be funded. Positions also need to show an awareness of the amount of political capital you can
16、 expend on the issue, and that politics is the art of the possible. Suggesting, as one UK player did in a non-proliferation simulation, that the UK would unilaterally disarm, however desirable that might be, reveals a poor understanding of the official UK government mindset, and represents a step we
17、ll beyond what is politically possible. The Final Analytic Essay (4,000 words)The final submitted essay should include the initial and subsequent public statements issues by your position as appendices which should be no more than 2,000 words. Topics to be addressed in the body of the essay will inc
18、lude (but are not limited to)Explaining the rationale behind your choice of options, and your reasoning for costing them as you do; in other words, demonstrating that your policy options reflect an understanding of the historical and political limits on what is possibleReflecting on the reaction to
19、your initial position statement.Explicating the reasoning for changes between the initial and final positions.Reflecting on the process of the simulation and on how it has contributed to your understanding of the process of political decisionmaking. Reflecting on how useful it is to draw generalised
20、 “lessons of history” from particular cases. You will probably find it useful to write, or at least substantially draft, the essay in sections:1. Prior to the first simulation session, when you lay out your approach to the position paper. This is not the same as the position paper, but represents yo
21、ur understanding of the thinking behind the public diplomatic position2. Between the first and second sessions, and second and third sessions, when you reflect on the changes you make to your position, and the lessons learned from the first session.3. After the final session when you complete your f
22、inal reflection on the lessons learned from the process. The exact split between these will vary from person to person, but the first will usually be longer than the second and third. If you write along this pattern, after the final simulation session, you really should only have to finish off a few
23、 hundred words, polish the paper and submit it. In the final submission, the layout should be clear it should be obvious what part is the position statements, what part is the analysis and what, if any is the reflection. What you might be doing:Time Period Tasks Writing GoalsTuesday November 4th Sim
24、ulation topic and roles set; note your initial thoughts on topic; read background paper Write short note on initial thoughts up to 500 words? Use initial handout for guidanceNote background reasoning on Initial paper what options you are including and why; Research options, write Initial Draft Paper
25、Develop initial position paper, identify research needs and action them c 1,000 words?No later than Friday November 20th Email Initial Paper to Mike Cosgrave.Nov 21st - 23rd Receive other papers by email and review them Note objections, agreements with other position papers, say why support objectio
26、ns with valid argumentsShort notes 500 words? Possibly more? Monday 23rd Nov Simulation part I present your position, defend it, support or criticise other papersReflect on the outcome of Sim I and on the reasoning behind any changes you feel you should make to your paper, negotiate and lobby suppor
27、tWrite reflection of 500-1000 words consider points you would make in official diplomatic reports or press statementsMonday, 30th Nov. Simulation Part II - “Mid-game” - develop your position, build coalitions, negotiate towards your desired end state.Reflect on outcome of simulation, review course.
28、write final conclusionsMon 7th Dec Last class, opportunity to review/discuss simulation.Write last 500 words, gather previous writing and polish it into a final paperTuesday 16th December, 3pm TBC Submit Final Paper 2 copies, to Secretaries Office, 5 Perrot Ave.You may submit early; visiting student
29、s who will have left before the due date may submit by email and mail in printed copies. Lost Continent Autumn 2009The “Lost Continent” is a hypothetical setting for a network of interlinked crises in a tropical continent in the Indian Ocean. The continent is approximately 1,000 miles from North to
30、South and 500 miles on its East-West Axis. There is a belt of jungle (see vegetation map) and some desert but the bulk of the continent is open, tropical grasslands. The infrastructure is roughly comparable to central Africa; poor and underdeveloped, and has been seriously damaged by the civil war i
31、n zones of conflict. There are six international positions in the simulation. These are the UN Secretary General and the 5 Permanent Members of the UNSC. The UN SG will not only serve as “chair” of the peace process, but will also exercise his/her good offices to advance the process; and endeavor to
32、 advance the liberal internationalist agenda shared by most UN staff and supporters. The P5 will have various agendas which they will need to pursue. SGUSA Russia UKFranceChinaThe continent is divided into 5 statesA AdaboranEthnically divided, with the bulk of the nations wealth controlled by the Or
33、ange people living in the Orange River valley, which is navigable as far upriver as X. The purple majority are poorer, and were systematically discriminated against since independence. Economy dominated by oil exports from the Orange River basin Adaboran is a significant exporter of oil, historicall
34、y providing 10%-12% of US oil imports; the economy is dominated by US oil companies, whose security staff were accused of being active participants in the recent Civil War. Factions1.Purple People Liberation Front southern and coastal purple region, broadly Marxist/socialist in orientation2.Purple D
35、emocratic Peoples Party Royalist purple faction, strongest in mountains, harkens back to semi-legendary pre-colonial Purple Kingdom in mountains, supports return of exiled royal heirs, constitutional monarchy, has some support in USB BrongoloandPlans to address poverty issues and development needs b
36、y building dams on the Rivers N and M which will reduce flow downstream to Sambuca and Cardomon/Southern Adaboran. In dispute with multinational pharmaceutical companies and US based university research groups over biopatents. Some govt officials accused of selling out on biopatents to pharmaceutica
37、l multinationals; 1.The Brongoland Labour Federation and the Popular Peoples Party accuse Government Brongoland Freedom Party of failing to push development fast enough, and of taking kickbacks from multinationals for engineering and defence contracts; significant numbers of poorly paid migrant work
38、ers brought in to work on infrastructure projects, C CardomonIn dispute with Brongoland over water rights on River M, Blue people of NE have historic links with Blue people in Southern Sambuca, disputes ownership of Blue Islands with SambucaFactions: Blue; spillover of Islamic factions from Darujist
39、an, border dispute with Brongoland over desert Oases in western desert. Seeks to encourage Purple tribe to move north across Purple River and out of Cardomon. Purple population of N. Cardomon is swollen by c. 800,000 Purple refugees from Adaboran Civil War. Exports copper, aluminum and rare earth el
40、ements used in microtechnology; controls 90% of world reserves of cardonomium, which is essential in mobile phones. Human Rights groups accuse the government of “practically exterminating” desert nomads to remove their claims to mineral rights. All exports go through port city of Blue in blue region
41、FactionsBlue Liberal Party, free trade, democracy, opposes Conservative, pro-military government. (not active in simulation)S SambucaSocialist Islamic Republic under President XXXX, in conflict with Brongoland over water issues on the River N and with Adaboran over treatment of Orange minority south
42、 of River N. Blue People in southern peninsula have seperatist aspirations, some seek federal constitution for Sambuca which gives them more control, others seek seek seperation and federal republic with blue portion of Cardomon, small traditionalist Blue faction control holy city of G, and oppose s
43、eperatist/federalists in favour of asserting “historic” Blue rule over Sambuca, a claim which dates back to pre-Islamic period. Regarded as sponsor of terrorism by USA, former Soviet Client state, threatens exports of oil etc from Adaboran through southern straitsFactions: 1.Federal Party (mostly Bl
44、ue, opposition, strongest in Blue peninsula, which has xtian minority)D DarujistanA Pro-Western Military government provides bases for US navy in southern port; it faces internal opposition from a small Islamic Fundamentalist faction, which is strongest in highlands, where there is also a strong dru
45、g cartel growing and exporting opiates. Government forces focus on dealing with Islamicist fighters, while allowing drug cartels fairly free reign in return for occasional assistance in highlands. Drug cartels in cities deal with export of drugs and have links to international drugs gangs who also i
46、mport weapons illegally. Drug related crime dominates crime in major coastal cities, and is linked to police corruption. There is internal political opposition by supporters of former democratic government (PPPD popular peoples party of Darujistan) which was overthrown on grounds of corruption by mi
47、litary. This state probably has nuclear weapons (accquired from North Korea). Recently, elements in the military government appear to be moving closer to China offering military basing and trade agreements. Military govt plans to copy Brongoland plans for major hydro-electric plants, which has provoked strong statements from Cardomon demanding negotiations about water rights in the East River region. Factions1. PPPD popular peoples party of Darujistan
