收藏 分享(赏)

economic development in africa 2001.pdf

上传人:weiwoduzun 文档编号:1752666 上传时间:2018-08-22 格式:PDF 页数:65 大小:174.34KB
下载 相关 举报
economic development in africa 2001.pdf_第1页
第1页 / 共65页
economic development in africa 2001.pdf_第2页
第2页 / 共65页
economic development in africa 2001.pdf_第3页
第3页 / 共65页
economic development in africa 2001.pdf_第4页
第4页 / 共65页
economic development in africa 2001.pdf_第5页
第5页 / 共65页
点击查看更多>>
资源描述

1、 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA: PERFORMANCE, PROSPECTS AND POLICY ISSUES UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2001 Symbols of United Nations documentsare composed of capital letters com-bined with figures. Mention of such asymbol indicates a referen

2、ce to a UnitedNations document. The designations employed and thepresentation of the material in this pub-lication do not imply the expression ofany opinion whatsoever on the part ofthe Secretariat of the United Nationsconcerning the legal status of any coun-try, territory, city or area, or of its a

3、uthor-ities, or concerning the delimitation ofits frontiers or boundaries. Material in this publication may befreely quoted or reprinted, but acknowl-edgement is requested, together with areference to the document number. Acopy of the publication containing thequotation or reprint should be sent tot

4、he UNCTAD secretariat.UNCTAD/GDS/AFRICA/1TD/B/48/12NoteiiiPageA. Introduction .1B. Recent economic performance 31. Output growth .32. Sectoral developments .7C. Factors affecting growth prospects 111. Investment and savings: trends and patterns 132. External financing and debt .193. International tr

5、ade .26(a) Dependence on primary commodities andexport performance 26(b) Competitiveness of African non-traditionalexports .29(c) Terms of trade 34(d) Market access 42D. Policy conclusions 441. External financing, aid and debt 452. Key international trade policy issues for Africa .473. Domestic poli

6、cy issues 49Notes 54ContentsEconomic Development in AfricaivList of tables and chartsChart1 Total and per capita net capital inflows, 19751999 202 Terms of trade for Africa, 19701998 . 353 World terms of trade of selected groups of primarycommodities against manufactures, 19932000 . 394 African term

7、s of trade for selected primarycommodities against manufactures, 19901999 . 40Table Page1 Average annual GDP growth in Africa, 19651999 .42 Annual rates of GDP growth in Africa, 19901999 .63 Total agricultural and cereal output, 19922000 84 Distribution of agricultural growth in Africa, 19902000 .95

8、 Investment and savings in Africa, 19751999 . 146a Changes in investment ratios and GDP growth inAfrican countries between the 1980s and the 1990s . 166b Changes in savings ratios and GDP growth inAfrican countries between the 1980s and the 1990s . 177 External debt indicators for developing countri

9、es,1990, 19982000 . 248 Africas share in world exports and imports, 19801999 279 Composition of exports from sub-Saharan Africa,1980, 1990, 1997 . 2810 Competitiveness and manufactures exports, 19851998 3011 World prices and terms of trade by commodity group,19752000 38vACP African, Caribbean and Pa

10、cific (group ofStates)AEC African Economic CommunityAERC African Economic Research ConsortiumCI competitiveness indicatorDAC Development Assistance Committee(of OECD)ECA Economic Commission for AfricaEU European UnionFAO Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited NationsFAOSTAT Food and Agricult

11、ure Organization of theUnited Nations statistical databaseFDI foreign direct investmentFUGI Future of Global Interdependence (model)GATS General Agreement on Trade in ServicesGDP gross domestic productGNP gross national productGSP generalized system of preferencesHIPC heavily indebted poor countryIM

12、F International Monetary FundLDCs least developed countriesMENA Middle East and North Africa (region)NIEs newly industrializing economiesOAU Organization of African UnityODA official development assistanceOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopmentRSA Republic of South AfricaSSA sub-S

13、aharan AfricaTNCs transnational corporationsAbbreviationsviTRIMs trade-related investment measuresTRIPs trade-related intellectual property rightsUN-NADAF United Nations New Agenda for theDevelopment of Africa in the 1990sUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade andDevelopmentUNIDO United Nations I

14、ndustrial DevelopmentOrganizationWB World BankWTO World Trade Organization1Economic Development in AfricaA. IntroductionIt is recalled that the Trade and Development Board considersat its annual sessions a substantive report by the UNCTAD secre-tariat on African development in the context of the imp

15、lementationof the United Nations New Agenda for the Development of Africain the 1990s (UN-NADAF). The General Assembly, in its resolu-tion 55/182, requested the initiation by UNCTAD of a contribution,in areas falling within its mandate, to the preparatory process forthe final review and appraisal of

16、 the implementation of the UN-NADAF. The present report is being submitted both to the Tradeand Development Board at its forty-eighth session and to the Gen-eral Assembly at its fifty-sixth session.The New Agenda had as its priority objectives the acceleratedtransformation, integration, diversificat

17、ion and growth of the Afri-can economies in order to reduce their vulnerability to externalECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA:PERFORMANCE, PROSPECTS ANDPOLICY ISSUES2 United Nations Conference on Trade and Developmentshocks and increase their dynamism, internalize the process of de-velopment and enhance

18、 self-reliance. It considered that an averagereal growth rate of at least 6 per cent per annum was required forthe continent to achieve sustained and sustainable economic growthand equitable development, increase income and eradicate poverty.The agenda reflected a mutuality of commitments and accoun

19、tabil-ity by the African countries on the one hand and the internationalcommunity on the other.In 1996, the General Assembly conducted a Mid-term Reviewof the implementation of the UN-NADAF, wherein it was recog-nized that the majority of African countries had embarked on aprocess of structural adju

20、stment and a wide range of economic re-forms. Nevertheless, many of the critical social and economicproblems which had led to the adoption of the UN-NADAF re-mained, including an increase in the level of poverty and the factthat key development targets and goals had not been met.African countries re

21、main by and large dependent on the ex-port of a few commodities, and terms of trade losses have furtheraggravated their capacity to invest in human and physical infra-structure. Present levels of national savings and investment areinsufficient to ensure a process of accumulation necessary to placeAf

22、rica on a sustainable growth path. Despite commitments by theinternational community to assist Africa in its efforts to achieveaccelerated growth, the support provided has fallen far short ofexpectations. Indeed, official development assistance has suffereda continuous downward trend, representing l

23、ess than one-third ofthe internationally agreed targets. Furthermore, despite recent ac-tion for the reduction of African debt, including the enhanced HIPCinitiative, a permanent exit from debt problems is proving elusive.This report reviews Africas development in the 1990s andanalyses the domestic

24、and external impediments to sustained andrapid growth in Africa. It discusses inter alia policy options for3Economic Development in Africaenhancing growth and development in Africa in order to meet theobjectives set forth by the international community, including thatof reducing poverty by half by t

25、he year 2015 as contained in theMillennium Declaration. It draws on previous research done inUNCTAD on African development, as well as on new research,particularly with respect to investment, savings and growth, andtrade performance and terms of trade.B. Recent economic performance1. Output growthAf

26、rica as a whole experienced moderate growth from the mid-1960s until the end of the 1970s. While the average growth ratewas well below the rate achieved by a handful of East Asian econo-mies, it equalled or exceeded the growth rates attained by manydeveloping countries in other regions. In particula

27、r there was anotable acceleration of growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)1 dur-ing the 1970s (table 1), supported by a boom in commodity pricesand foreign aid. Investment in many countries in the region ex-ceeded 25 per cent of GDP, and the savings gap remained relativelymoderate.Economic performance

28、deteriorated rapidly in SSA in the late1970s and early 1980s, whereas the slowdown of growth was rela-tively moderate in North Africa. Unlike many countries in otherdeveloping regions which managed to restore growth after the lostdecade of the 1980s, stagnation and decline continued in SSA dur-ing t

29、he first half of the 1990s due to a combination of adverseexternal developments, structural and institutional bottlenecks and4 United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentTable 1AVERAGE ANNUALGDPGROWTH IN AFRICA, 19651999(Per cent)196519691970197919801989199019991990199419951999Africa4.54.22.5

30、2.30.93.5North Africa5.36.74.23.12.14.2Sub-Saharan Africa2.44.02.12.40.83.9Including South Africa4.23.31.72.00.43.2Excluding Nigeria3.53.92.52.30.34.2Source:For 19801999: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001.For 19651979: World Bank data as reported

31、 in the 2000/2001 Annual Report, Global Coalition for Africa.5Economic Development in Africapolicy errors, examined in some detail in earlier work undertakenby the UNCTAD secretariat.2 As socio-economic conditions de-teriorated and spilled over into political and civil unrest, theinternational commu

32、nity launched various initiatives including UN-NADAF, to address the problems faced by the countries in theregion. At the same time, more and more African countries came toadopt structural adjustment programmes supported by the BrettonWoods institutions, encompassing rapid and extensive liberaliza-t

33、ion, deregulation and privatization of economic activity in searchfor a solution to economic stagnation and decline. However, whilestructural adjustment programmes have been applied more intenselyand frequently in Africa than in any other developing region, barelyany African country has exited from

34、such programmes with suc-cess, establishing conditions for rapid, sustained economic growth.This is true not only for countries which are said to have slipped inthe implementation of stabilization and adjustment programmes (theso-called non-adjusters or bad-adjusters), but also most of the core-and

35、good-adjusters.The widespread pessimism about African prospects was some-what dispelled by a fairly broad-based economic upturn whichstarted in the mid 1990s and allowed the average income growthrate to exceed the population growth rate for four consecutive years,thereby resulting in gains in per ca

36、pita income across the continentfor the first time for many years (table 2). The performance of SSAwas even stronger without Nigeria, where growth remained belowthe average of the other countries in the region. Similarly the Re-public of South Africa (RSA) had a relatively poor performance,particula

37、rly towards the end of the decade. Growth in RSA andNigeria together, which account for about 50 per cent of the totalGDP of the continent excluding North Africa, was about 2.2 percent per annum during 19951999, while the remaining countriesin SSA had a moderate growth rate of 4.2 per cent per annum

38、 overthe same period. Nevertheless, there was a generalized slowdownat the end of the decade throughout the region, including North6 United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentTable 2ANNUALRATES OF GDPGROWTH IN AFRICA, 19901999(Per cent)1990199119921993199419951996199719981999North Africa3.42

39、.02.00.53.91.56.52.65.63.9Sub-Saharan Africa2.51.8-0.30.00.94.35.33.83.22.7Including South Africa1.10.4-1.20.62.13.74.73.22.02.0Excluding South Africa and Nigeria1.41.2-1.0-0.51.14.75.54.13.73.1Source:World Bank, World Development Indicators 2001,Washington, D.C.Note:Growth rates are calculated from

40、 regional aggregates of GDP in constant (1995) dollars.7Economic Development in AfricaAfrica, which appears to have continued through 2000, when thegrowth rate of SSA fell to 2.7 per cent, barely matching the growthrate of population.3Despite the recent upturn, per capita income in SSA at theturn of

41、 the new century is 10 per cent below the level reached in1980, and the gap is even larger compared to the level attainedthree decades earlier. Economic growth remains well below the UN-NADAF target of 6 per cent per annum. For the region as a whole,only two countries, i.e. Mozambique and Uganda, me

42、t this targetduring the past decade. Growth rates needed to attain the more re-cent target of reducing African poverty by half by 2015 are estimatedto be even higher than the UN-NADAF target of 6 per cent. On thebasis of recent trends, these targets are unlikely to be reached.42. Sectoral developmen

43、tsIndustrial growth has fallen behind GDP growth in SSA since1980. Taking period averages, the elasticity of industrial value addedwith respect to GDP was 1.10 and 1.03 during the 1960s and 1970srespectively, but it declined to 0.75 for the 1980s and to 0.65 forthe 1990s. This constitutes an importa

44、nt shift from the emphasison industrialization associated with the much-criticized “urban bias”of the earlier decades. De-industrialization, at least in some Africancountries, appears to have been associated with trade liberalizationand the decline of state-owned enterprises which, in many coun-trie

45、s, had constituted the major segment of large-scale industry. Asthings stand now, industrial growth in SSA is becoming more andmore dependent on agricultural growth either through backwardlinkages or through demand originating from rural population.5Agriculture has always been crucial for African ec

46、onomicgrowth. For the 1990s, average annual agricultural growth rates for8 United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentTable 3TOTALAGRICULTURALAND CEREALOUTPUT, 19922000(Index numbers, 19891991 = 100)199219931994199519961997199819992000AfricaAgriculture104.2107.1109.7112.8124.0122.1126.8129.21

47、28.8Cereals98.0101.6110.2105.5129.3115.1123.5121.0118.0North AfricaAgriculture105.3107.1106.6105.1132.3120.7129.3132.9130.8Cereals105.186.194.282.5155.589.0122.8106.594.2Sub-Saharan AfricaAgriculture104.2107.4110.4115.0121.5122.0125.8128.0127.9Cereals98.4106.1109.9112.0123.4119.3123.2123.0122.0Sourc

48、e:FAOSTAT database. Indices for agriculture and cereals in North Africa are weighted aggregates of country data.9Economic Development in AfricaAfrica, SSA and North Africa were 2.6, 2.5 and 2.8 per cent re-spectively (table 3). While the growth rate of agricultural outputwas slightly below the growt

49、h rate of population in SSA (2.6 percent per annum), it exceeded by a large margin the populationgrowth in North Africa (1.6 per cent per annum), thereby produc-ing a significant increase in per capita agricultural output. Cerealoutput, on the other hand, fell behind population growth in bothSSA and North Africa.Figures in table 4 show that there is considerable variationamong countries regarding agricultural growth. While 30 countriesexperienced declines in per capita agricultural output between 1990and 2000, in 10 countries there were moderate increases (i.e.

展开阅读全文
相关资源
猜你喜欢
相关搜索

当前位置:首页 > 企业管理 > 经营企划

本站链接:文库   一言   我酷   合作


客服QQ:2549714901微博号:道客多多官方知乎号:道客多多

经营许可证编号: 粤ICP备2021046453号世界地图

道客多多©版权所有2020-2025营业执照举报