1、 1 Property Times Madrid Offices 2Q 2010 Upturn in take-up 30 July 2010 Index Executive summary 1 Economic perspective 2 Demand 3 Supply. Prices 4 Main statistics 5 Map of areas 6 Definitions 6 Contacts 7 Author Roco de la Cruz Research Analyst +34 91 770 96 00 Contacts Magali Marton Head of CEMEA
2、 Research +33 1 49 64 49 54 Tony McGough Global Head of Forecasting in spite of the new projects coming onto the market and of the vacant space left by many companies, the take-up volume was a lot higher than expected Many new office projects are on hold or delayed waiting for a secured tenant or f
3、or an improvement in the market conditions Rents continued decreasing but are expected to stabilize in the following months, especially in prime areas, where price adjustments in the past years have been significant (Figure 1) Figure 1 Prime rental prices 0501001502002503003504004505002001 2002 2003
4、 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ( F )2011 ( F ) / s q m / y e a rSource: DTZ Research. Information obtained from closed transactions (not based on market asking prices) Economic perspective 2 The Spanish economy continued to decline during the second quarter of 2010 (-0.5% expected), even thoug
5、h the decrease was slightly less than in previous periods. GDP is excepted to remain similar during the next quarters and reach a positive growth by the end of 2011 Private consumption experienced a slight upturn (0.2%), even though it is expected to return to negative figures during the second half
6、 of the year. Therefore, household consumption remains weak, mainly due to the high rate of unemployment and debt, which affects income and familys confidence negatively. Besides, the increase in VAT in July will contribute to delay the recovery in consumption Prices registered an increase of 1.1% (
7、estimated CPI), as in the previous quarter, even though it is expected to recover gradually during the year due mainly to the increase in VAT Unemployment rate experienced a slightly higher rate at 20% and is expected to reach 20.7% by year end The Euribor experienced a slight upturn during the mont
8、h of June, reaching 1.28%, even though it is still at very moderate rates. This continues to favour families and companies, holding back debts and mortgage rates Difficulties to obtain financing continue, slowing and delaying purchase transactions, investments and developments. Table 1 Spains econom
9、ic indicators % 2008 2009 2010 (F) 2011 (F) GDP 0.86 -3.64 -0.59 -0.22 Private Consumption -0.59 -4.86 -0.72 -0.97 Investment -4.40 -15.25 -7.47 -2.51 CPI (Inflation) 4.08 -0.29 1.43 1.09 Unemployment Rate 11.30 18.00 20.29 20.92 Source: Oxford Economics Demand 3 Office take-up during the second qu
10、arter of the year increased significantly in comparison to the previous quarter (88%), reaching a total of 162,000 sq m. This was mainly due to some large transactions (Table 4) which amounted to a total take-up volume of 49% Demand concentrated mainly in the citys periphery including 54% of take-up
11、 in the Periphery and Outskirts (Figure 2). Likewise, most large transactions took place in these areas, since the greater availability of space and of large spaces make them more appropriate to locate headquarters or consolidate offices into one Within the city centre, the prime area is still much
12、demanded and experiences relatively stable take-up rates. Likewise, 15% of take-up during this quarter took place in the CBD. This was not only due to the areas attractiveness but also to the decrease in prices experienced in the past years The most active sectors during the quarter have been Teleco
13、mmunications and IT, Public Administration, Consumption Goods and Commerce R&R (Table 3) The average space leased was 1,300 sq m. Nevertheless, most transactions were in the range of 200-500 sq m. Some leases of more than 5,000 sq m stood out, almost all of them taking place in the Periphery and Out
14、skirts The option to rent is still preferred by most, registering 96% of the total take-up against 4% of purchase transactions The downwards adjustment of rents in the past years, as well as the greater availability of space and increase in contributions from Landlords have helped to push office dem
15、and, especially for companies wishing to downsize and those looking for smaller offices or for more affordable rents to save costs Office demand during the third quarter is expected to reduce considerably due to the summer period. Nevertheless it will continue to recover at year end Table 2 Take-up
16、by area 02 0 . 0 0 04 0 . 0 0 06 0 . 0 0 08 0 . 0 0 01 0 0 . 0 0 01 2 0 . 0 0 01 4 0 . 0 0 01 6 0 . 0 0 01 8 0 . 0 0 0Q 2 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 0 9 Q 4 2 0 0 9 Q 1 2 0 1 0 Q 2 2 0 1 0s q mC B D R e st o f D i st r i ct R e st o f t h e C i t y P e r i p h e r y O u t sL i r t sSource: DTZ Research Figure
17、3 Take-up by sector Q2 2010 26%17%13%11%9%8%6%10%T e l e co m s & I TP u b l i c I n st i t u t i o n sC o n su m e r g o o d s & R e t a i l e r sP r o f . S e r vi ce sE n e r g yO t h e r se ct o r sB a n ks , I n ve st m e n t & I n su r a n ceR e st o f se ct o r sSource: DTZ Research Supply. P
18、rices 4 Supply Office availability experienced a slight decrease during the past quarter (Table 4). This was due to a sharp increase in take-up, which surpassed the increase of vacant space, of new projects entering the market as well as of space left by companies relocating to more affordable loca
19、tions or those looking to reduce space The greatest space availability continues to concentrate in the periphery, since the number of new developments is greater. Nevertheless, prime areas continue to register fairly unusual vacancy rates in comparison to previous years. For example, the Castellana
20、Four Towers continue to suffer of high vacancy, as well as other buildings in the city centre Around 50,000 sq m of office space were delivered during the first quarter of the year (Table 5), including two refurbishment projects (C/ Mndez lvaro 20 and C/ Goya 14), as well as new developments such as
21、 Va Norte, in Las Tablas Some projects are still being delayed or cancelled due to the current financial difficulties and market conditions, waiting for a better economic situation and the markets recovery, which could guarantee them higher occupancy rates Furthermore, some developments are still un
22、derway active, such as Phase II of Adequa (28,000 sq m), Julin Camarillo 16-20 (8,000 sq m), Albasanz 14 (10,000 sq m) or Castellana 79 (19,400 sq m) Prices In broad outline, rents continued adjusting downwards (Table 2). Rents in prime areas experienced a new downfall, adjusting to demand and to th
23、e areas high availability due to the urgency of many landlords to rent their offices, in cases where they have been vacant for a long time Prices are expected to stabilize during the second half of the year, especially in prime areas Figure 4 Availability 0 , 0 01 , 0 02 , 0 03 , 0 04 , 0 05 , 0 06
24、, 0 07 , 0 08 , 0 09 , 0 001 0 0 . 0 0 02 0 0 . 0 0 03 0 0 . 0 0 04 0 0 . 0 0 05 0 0 . 0 0 06 0 0 . 0 0 07 0 0 . 0 0 08 0 0 . 0 0 09 0 0 . 0 0 01 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0Q 2 2 0 0 9 Q 3 2 0 0 9 Q 4 2 0 0 9 Q 1 2 0 1 0 Q 2 2 0 1 0s q mA va i l a b i l i t y A va i l a b i l i t y R a t i o%Source: DTZ Researc
25、h Figure 5 New supply -5 0 . 0 0 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 1 5 0 . 0 0 0 2 0 0 . 0 0 0 2 5 0 . 0 0 0 3 0 0 . 0 0 0 3 5 0 . 0 0 0 4 0 0 . 0 0 0 4 5 0 . 0 0 0 5 0 0 . 0 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ( F )2011 ( F )s q mN e w S u p p l y F u t u r e su p p l y source: DTZ Research Table 2 Rental prices Areas
26、 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Variation /sq m/year /sq m/year (%) CBD 354 288 -19 Rest of District 260 216 -17 Rest of City 192 176 -8 Periphery (M-30) 156 168 8 Outskirts (M-40) 144 131 -9 Source: DTZ Research. Information obtained from closed transactions (not based on market asking prices) Main statistics 5
27、Table 3 Office market Main statistics 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 Variation % 1Q10-2Q10 Variation % 2Q09-2Q10 Tendency 3Q 2010 Take-up (sq m) 55,000 43,000 150,000 86,000 162,000 88.4 194.5 Available space (sq m) 826,000 854,000 872,000 928,000 928,500 0.1 12.5 Availability Rate (%) 7.30
28、 7.55 7.67 8.12 8.10 -0.2 11.0 Prime Rents (/sq m/year) 354 324 319 312 288 -7.7 -18.6 Source: DTZ Research Table 4 Main rental transactions Location Area Surface (sq m) Tenants activity C/ Mara Tubau, 9 Periphery 17.400 Telecommunications Av/ Aragn, 402 Outskirts 14.600 Airports P.E. Dehesa de Vicl
29、varo Outskirts 11.000 Telecommunications C/ Torrelaguna, 56 Rest of City 9.200 Public service Paseo de Recoletos, 37 CBD 7.650 Bank C/ Torrelaguna, 79 Rest of City 6.600 Energy C/ Albasanz, 16 Periphery 5.200 Technology Consultancy Source: DTZ Research Map of areas. Definitions. 6 Map of areas Defi
30、nitions Take-up: Rental or purchase (owner occupied) transactions carried out during the period, including pre-leases, and turn key projects Availablity: Total office space available in the market, of finished buildings and premises (immediate availability) Availability rate: Total space available a
31、s regards the total office stock in the market New supply: Projects which construction finished during the period, including pre-let spaces and turn-key projects Rents: Average rental prices by areas measured in /sq m/year and calculated based on closed transactions during the period, not market ask
32、ing prices The Madrid office market is divided in 5 areas: CBD: or “Central Business District“, it is the main business area in the capital and includes exclusive office buildings. Rest of District: it is located mainly in the CBDs surroundings, in the city centre. Rest of City: the rest of building
33、s located within the M-30 ring-road, with exceptions (Va de los Poblados, Ciudad de las Comunicaciones, Arroyo de la Vega sur) Periphery: generally includes areas located between the M-30 and M-40, besides Mndez lvaro Outskirts: it comprises the business parks in the periphery (outside the M-40) alo
34、ng the main roads. Contacts 7 Madrid Office Agency Jorge Zanoletty +34 639 629 027 Barcelona Agency Carlos Bors +34 637 12 21 30 Global Corporate Services James Bradley +34 629 51 69 24 Project Management and Technical Assessment Property Management Marta Lpez-Mateos +34 680 663 083 marta.lopez-
35、 Investment Marco Ferrando +34 609 01 44 19 Valuations Olga Martn +34 638 70 31 08 Disclaimer Este informe no debe utilizarse como base para realizar transacciones inmobiliarias, sin ir acompaado del consejo cualificado y especfico de un profesional. Aun estando los datos rigurosamente verificado
36、s, DTZ Asesores Inmobiliarios Internacionales no puede aceptar responsabilidad alguna por la prdida o perjuicio resultante de la inadvertida existencia de errores en el informe. Se prohbe la publicacin, reproduccin, parcial o total de cualquier informacin contenida en este informe, as como hacer referencia al mismo, sin consentimiento previo. En cualquier reproduccin de informacin, se citar como fuente a DTZ Research. DTZ July 2010
