1、 12 AUGUST 2010 INSIDE Data Drill 2 Week in Review 3 ANZ Risk Dashboards 4 Economic Calendars Events we expect higher inflation in H2 due to poor grain harvests. Meanwhile, housing price increases eased to 10.3% in Jul as the government seeks to cool the real estate market. Producer prices in China
2、and South Korea fell to 4.8% and 3.4% respectively in Jul as commodity prices declined globally. Latest Prev vs. ExpChina Producer Price Index (y/y) Jul 4.8% 6.4% China Consumer Price Index (y/y) Jul 3.3% 2.9% =China China NDRC Housing Prices Jul 10.3% 11.4% Korea Producer Price Index (y/y) Jul 3.4%
3、 4.6% The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% during its meeting on 12 Aug. The central bank kept rates on hold as slowing growth in the US and China clouded South Koreas economic outlook. Latest Prev vs. ExpKorea South Korea 7-Day Repo Rate Aug 2.25% 2.25% = ANZ Emerging Asia Week
4、ly Data Monitor / 12 August 2010 / 4 of 10 ANZ EMERGING ASIA RISK DASHBOARD REAL VARIABLES ANZs Emerging Asia risk dashboard looks at the current momentum measure (the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised return) for key indicators in an historical context. Specifically, for each indicator the dashb
5、oard reports where the current reading lies relative to the distribution of all readings over the last decade. The dashboard colour code appears below. This weeks dashboard updates appear in blocked form. Indication Overcooling OverheatingColourPercentile 0-5% 95-100%5-20% 20-80% 80-95%Stable Increa
6、singDecreasingNote: As retail sales data are not available in India, the Philippines and Malaysia, vehicle sales data is used as a proxy. IP Retail Sales Exports 3m/3m saar 3m/3m saar 3m/3m saar Country y/y (last 12 m) Three Months ago One Month ago Latest y/y (last 12 m) Three Months ago One Month
7、ago Latest y/y (last 12 m) Three Months ago One Month ago Latest Australia - New Zealand - China Hong Kong - - - - India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Vietnam ANZ Emerging Asia Weekly Data Monitor / 12 August 2010 / 5 of 10 ANZ EMERGING ASIA RISK DASHBOARD PRIC
8、E VARIABLES ANZs Emerging Asia risk dashboard looks at the current momentum measure (the 3m/3m seasonally adjusted annualised return) for key indicators in an historical context. Specifically, for each indicator the dashboard reports where the current reading lies relative to the distribution of all
9、 readings over the last decade. The dashboard colour code appears below. This weeks dashboard updates appear in blocked form. Equities data are updated each week. Indication Overcooling OverheatingColourPercentile 0-5% 95-100%5-20% 20-80% 80-95%Stable IncreasingDecreasingNote: For the property price
10、 index, only quarterly data are available in Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. CPI Property Prices Equities 3m/3m saar 3m/3m saar 1-month returns Country y/y (last 12 m) Three Months ago One Month ago Latest y/y (last 12 m) Three Months ago One Month ago Latest Level (last 12 m) Three Mon
11、ths ago One Month ago Latest Australia - - New Zealand - China Hong Kong India - - - - Indonesia - - - - Malaysia - Philippines - - - - Singapore - South Korea Taiwan Thailand - Vietnam - - - - ANZ Emerging Asia Weekly Data Monitor / 12 August 2010 / 6 of 10 ECONOMIC CALENDAR DATA AND COMMENTARY 16
12、AUG: INDIA (JUL) India - Inflation-10-505101520Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10y/y3m/3m saarJul Forecast y/yJul Forecast 3m/3m saarANZ: 10.3% CONSENSUS: 10.4% LAST: 10.6% We expect Indias WPI inflation to have eased to 10.3% (y/y) in Jul from 10.6% in Jun. Demand si
13、de price pressures may have subsided as the successive rate hikes by the RBI should have started to impact inflation expectations. Food price increases, the major factory behind the high inflation figures in recent months, should have moderated slightly due to a normal monsoon season. However, doubl
14、e-digit inflation will continue to be seen in fuel and power prices, suggesting that some supply side pressures remain. 18 AUG: MALAYSIA (JUL) Malaysia - Inflation-10-50510152025Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10CPI, y/yCPI, 3m/3m saarJul forecast y/yJul forecast 3m/3
15、m saarANZ: 1.8% CONSENSUS: 1.8% LAST: 1.7% Malaysias CPI inflation should have increased fractionally to 1.8% (y/y) in Jul from 1.7% in Jun, driven by a slight increase in food prices, in line with the rest of the region. Meanwhile, sequential growth momentum has continued to trend downward, and we
16、do not expect to see much upside to the headline number over the near-term. Core prices should also remain stable as we do not expect any change in government subsidies going forward. 18 AUG: MALAYSIA (Q2) Malaysia - GDP-8-6-4-2024681012Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Q2
17、GDPforecastANZ: 8.4% CONSENSUS: 8.0% LAST: 10.1% We expect Malaysias GDP growth to have slowed to 8.4% (y/y) in Q2 from 10.1% in Q1, as activity has shown signs of moderation in the past three months. Industrial production, manufacturing sales and exports all rose at slower rates in Apr to Jun than
18、in the first three months of the year, reflecting softer demand growth both domestically and externally. These factors are likely to have led to slightly lower increases in investment for the quarter as well. Given the uncertainty regarding the global recovery, this moderation is likely to continue
19、into the second half of the year ANZ Emerging Asia Weekly Data Monitor / 12 August 2010 / 7 of 10 ECONOMIC CALENDAR 19 AUG: TAIWAN (Q2) Taiwan - GDP-15-10-5051015Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10 ANZ: 8.8% CONSENSUS: 10.0% LAST: 13.3% Taiwans GDP is expected to have grown
20、by 8.8% (y/y) in Q2, down from Q1s 13.3%. The economy will have continued to perform well in Q2, led by exports and investment. Consumption will have remained resilient with a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. Going forward, GDP growth is likely to slow further due to base effects, and infla
21、tion pressures will intensify as demand remains robust and on-shore liquidity remains ample. 20 AUG: HONG KONG (JUL) Hong Kong - Inflation-8-6-4-202468101214Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09Apr-09Jul-09Oct-09Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10y/y3m/3m saarJul Forecast, y/yJul Forecast, 3m/3m saar ANZ: 2.9% CONSENSUS: 2
22、.8% LAST: 2.8% Headline CPI inflation may have increased slightly to 2.9% (y/y) in Jul, from Juns 2.8%, led by rising prices on food and private rental prices. These groups account for 26.9% and 23.9% of Hong Kongs consumption basket respectively. We think inflation remains a threat for Hong Kong in
23、 H2 due to negative real interest rates, which will encourage depositors to seek higher return, thereby placing greater pressure on asset prices. ANZ Emerging Asia Weekly Data Monitor / 12 August 2010 / 8 of 10 ECONOMIC CALENDAR DATA RELEASES: 13 19 AUG Date Country Data/Event Time (SG/HK) 13 Aug Si
24、ngapore Retail Sales (Jun) 13:00 13 Aug Hong Kong GDP (Q2) 16:30 15 Aug South Korea Export Price Index (Jul) Import Price Index 11:00 16 Aug China Conference Board China June Leading Economic Index (23-Apr) 10:00 16 Aug Philippines Overseas Remittances (Jun) 16 Aug India Monthly Wholesale Prices (Ju
25、l) 14:30 17 Aug Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (Jul) Electronic Exports 13:00 17 Aug Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (Jul) 16:30 17-19 Aug South Korea Department Store Sales (Jul) Discount Store Sales 18 Aug Malaysia CPI (Jul) 17:00 18 Aug Malaysia GDP (Q2) 18:00 19 Aug Taiwan GDP (Q2) 16:30 19 Aug
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