1、 OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 1 OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 Summary in English How will economic and social developments drive environmental change to 2030? What policies are needed to address the main environmental challenges? How can OECD and non-OECD
2、countries best work together to tackle these challenges? The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 provides analyses of economic and environmental trends to 2030, and simulations of policy actions to address the key challenges. Without new policies, we risk irreversibly damaging the environment and the
3、 natural resource base needed to support economic growth and well-being. The costs of policy inaction are high. But the Outlook shows that tackling the key environmental problems we face today - including climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity and the health impacts of pollution - is both
4、 achievable and affordable. It highlights a mix of policies that can address these challenges in a cost-effective way. The focus of this Outlook is expanded from the 2001 edition to reflect developments in both OECD countries and Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa (BRIICS), and ho
5、w they might better co-operate on global and local environmental problem-solving. OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 2 KEY MESSAGES The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 is based on projections of economic and environmental trends to 2030. The key environmental chal
6、lenges for the future are presented according to a “traffic light” system (see Table 1). The Outlook also presents simulations of policy actions to address the key challenges, including their potential environmental, economic and social impacts. Table 1. The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 Green
7、Light Yellow Light Red Light Climate change Declining GHG emissions per unit of GDP Global GHG emissions Increasing evidence of an already changing climate Biodiversity Delayed 2020 = all countries apply the tax, starting only in 2020; Phased 2030 = OECD countries apply the tax in 2008, BRIC in 2020
8、 and Rest of the World (ROW) in 2030; All 2008 = all countries apply the tax, starting in 2008; 450ppm = scenario to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at 450 ppm CO2-eq; For all USD 25 tax cases, the tax is escalating by about 2% per year after the initial year of introduction. OECD ENV
9、IRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 4 The consequences of environmental policy inaction If no new policy actions are taken, within the next few decades we risk irreversibly altering the environmental basis for sustained economic prosperity. To avoid that, urgent actions are n
10、eeded to address in particular the “red light” issues of climate change, biodiversity loss, water scarcity and health impacts of pollution and hazardous chemicals (Table 1). Without further policies, by 2030, for example: Global emissions of greenhouse gases are projected to grow by a further 37%, a
11、nd 52% to 2050 (Figure 3a). This could result in an increase in global temperature over pre-industrial levels in the range of 1.7-2.4 Celsius by 2050, leading to increased heat waves, droughts, storms and floods, resulting in severe damage to key infrastructure and crops. A considerable number of to
12、days known animal and plant species are likely to be extinct, largely due to expanding infrastructure and agriculture, as well as climate change (Figure 4). Food and biofuel productiontogether will require a 10% increase in farmland worldwide with a further loss of wildlife habitat. Continued loss o
13、f biodiversity is likely to limit the Earths capacity to provide the valuable ecosystem services that support economic growth and human well-being. Figure 4. Sources of losses in mean species abundance to 2030 0-50607080901002000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030 2000 2030Remaining diversityLoss to nitrogenL
14、oss to infrastructureLoss to fragmentationLoss to forestryLoss to climateLoss to agriculture%OECD BRIC ROW WORLDFigure 3. Total greenhouse gas emissions (by region), 1970 2050 010203040506070800102030405060708019701980 1990 2000 20102020 2030 20402050GtCO2eqOECDBRICROW197019801990 2000 201020202030
15、2040 2050GtCO2eqOECDBRICROWTotal Baseline GHG reduction of 39% by 2050, compared to 2000 A. OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline B. 450 ppm stabilisation policy simulation Note: BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China. ROW = Rest of world. OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 20
16、08 5 Figure 5. People living in areas of water stress, by level of stress, 2005 and 2030 (millions of people) 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 200520302005203020052030Medium Low NoSevereOECDBRICROW4 000Millions of people Water scarcity will worsen due to unsustainable use and management of
17、the resource as well as climate change; the number of people living in areas affected by severe water stress is expected to increase by another 1 billion to over 3.9 billion (Figure 5). Health impacts of air pollution will increase worldwide, with the number of premature deaths linked to ground-leve
18、l ozone quadrupling (Figure 6) and those linked to particulate matter more than doubling. Chemical production volumes in non-OECD countries are rapidly increasing, and there is insufficient information to fully assess the risks of chemicals in the environment and in products. The greatest environmen
19、tal impacts will be felt by developing countries, which are less equipped to manage and adapt. But the economic and social costs of policy inaction or delaying action in these areas are significant and are already affecting economies including in OECD countries directly (e.g. through public health s
20、ervice costs) as well as indirectly (e.g. through reduced labour productivity). The costs of policy inaction for biodiversity loss (e.g. fisheries) and climate change could be considerable. Key policy options There is a window of opportunity now to introduce ambitious policy changes to tackle the ke
21、y environmental problems and promote sustainable development. Investment choices being made today need to be steered towards a better environmental future, particularly choices that will “lock-in” energy modes, transport infrastructure and building stocks for decades to come. The following actions a
22、re essential: Use a mix of complementary policies to tackle the most challenging and complex environmental problems, with a strong emphasis on market-based instruments, such as taxes and tradable permits, in order to reduce the costs of action. Prioritise action in the key sectors driving environmen
23、tal degradation: energy, transport, agriculture and fisheries. Environmental ministers cannot do this alone. Environmental concerns need to be integrated into all policy-making by relevant ministries including finance, economy and trade, and reflected in all production and consumption decisions. Ens
24、ure that globalisation can lead to more efficient use of resources and the development and dissemination of eco-innovation. Business and industries need to play a lead role, but governments must provide clear and consistent long-term policy frameworks to encourage eco-innovation and to safeguard env
25、ironmental and social goals. Figure 6. Premature deaths from urban ozone exposure for 2000 and 2030 0 1020304050607080901020302000PacificEuropeNorth AmericaAsiaBrazilRussiaChinaSouth Asia(including India)Rest of the worldWorldOECDPremature deaths per million inhabitantsOECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO
26、2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 6 Improve partnerships between OECD and non-OECD countries to address global environmental challenges. Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa (BRIICS) in particular are key partners given their growing influence in the world economy and increas
27、ing share of global environmental pressures. Further environmental co-operation between OECD and non-OECD countries can help spread knowledge and technological best practices. Strengthen international environmental governance to better tackle trans-boundary and global environmental challenges. Stren
28、gthen attention to the environment in development co-operation programmes, and promote more coherent policies. What will the environment be like in 2030 if no further action is taken? OECD countries have made significant progress in addressing many environmental challenges over the past few decades.
29、 Pollution from industrial sources has been reduced, forest coverage and the number and size of natural protected areas have increased (although the quality of protected areas is not always high, and there are still too few marine protected areas), ozone depleting substances have largely been phased
30、-out and the use of natural resources, water and energy has to some extent been decoupled from continuing economic growth (i.e. become more efficient per unit of GDP). Policies that successfully led to these achievements should be maintained and scaled-up. However, in most cases, the increasing pres
31、sures on the environment from population and economic growth have out-paced the benefits of any efficiency gains. The remaining environmental challenges (see Table 1) are of an increasingly complex or global nature, and their impacts may only become apparent over long timeframes. Among the most urge
32、nt of these challenges for both OECD and non-OECD countries are climate change, biodiversity loss, the unsustainable management of water resources and the health impacts of pollution and hazardous chemicals. We are not managing our environment in a sustainable manner. The picture of economic and env
33、ironmental trends in the coming decades will differ from region to region. By 2030, the world economy is expected to nearly double and world population to grow from 6.5 billion today to over 8.2 billion people. Most of the growth in both income and population will be in the emerging economies of Bra
34、zil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa (the BRIICS) and in other developing countries. Rising income and aspirations for better living standards will increase the pressure on the planets natural resources. The economic prospects of many of the poorest countries are threatened by unsus
35、tainable use of natural resources, uncontrolled pollution in rapidly-growing cities and the impacts of climate change. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change as they lack the necessary financial and institutional capacity to adapt. The global importance of rapidly emerging ec
36、onomies is growing as they become major economic and trade partners, competitors, resource users and polluters on a level that compares to the largest of OECD countries. The primary energy consumption of Brazil, Russia, India and China together is expected to grow by 72% between 2005 and 2030, compa
37、red with 29% in the 30 OECD countries. Unless ambitious policy action is taken, greenhouse gas emissions from just these four Without more ambitious policies, increasing pressures on the environment could cause irreversible damage within the next few decades. OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN
38、978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 7 The cost of inaction is high, while ambitious actions to protect the environment are affordable and can go hand-in-hand with economic growth. countries will grow by 46% to 2030, surpassing those of the 30 OECD countries combined. Already, 63% of the population in Brazil
39、, Russia, India and China together are living under medium to severe water stress; this share will increase to 80% by 2030 unless new measures to better manage water resources are introduced. Policy action is affordable, and the cost of inaction is high Protecting the environment can go hand-in-hand
40、 with continued economic growth. The Outlook estimates that world GDP will grow by nearly 99% between 2005 and 2030 under a Baseline projection reflecting no new policies. Without policy changes, the environmental consequences of this growth will be significant. But good environmental policies can l
41、ead to “win-win” opportunities for the environment, human health and the economy. To demonstrate this, a hypothetical global “OECD Environmental Outlook policy package” (EO policy package) of a number of specific policy actions to address several key environmental challenges simultaneously was put t
42、ogether. The EO policy package would imply a reduction of just over 1% in world GDP in 2030, such that world GDP would be about 97% higher in 2030 than today, instead of nearly 99% higher. On average, this would mean a loss of 0.03 percentage points in annual GDP growth globally to 2030. Tackling a
43、specific environmental problem can in some cases offer co-benefits in terms of reduction in other environmental pressures, and solutions to global problems can also help to address local environmental problems and vice versa. For example, measures to reduce vehicle emissions can both reduce greenhou
44、se gas emissions and improve local air quality, while better insulation for homes and offices can cut energy bills for households and reduce pollution from energy production. For example, the climate policy simulation of a 450ppm CO2eq stabilisation pathway also found that, in addition to reducing g
45、reenhouse gas emissions, the ambitious climate change policies would also lead to reductions in sulphur oxides of 20-30% and in nitrogen oxides of 30-40% by 2030. Similarly, regulations to limit agricultural water pollution from nitrogen fertilisers can also reduce atmospheric emission of nitrous ox
46、ide, a potent greenhouse gas. Governments have the responsibility to create appropriate incentives for businesses and consumers to make choices that can help prevent future environmental problems. The investment choices being made today will determine future environmental outcomes. For example, the
47、types of energy infrastructure put in place today will lock-in for decades to come emissions of greenhouse gases. Investments in transport infrastructure today will also affect future mobility options and their environmental impacts. The energy efficiency of our building stock for the coming decades
48、 or even centuries is determined by the construction and building efficiency regulations in place today. Fast growing economies offer enormous opportunities for investments in new energy efficiency technologies. For example, China is building new coal-power plants at a rapid pace, and its urban resi
49、dential building stock is expected to more than double in the next 20 years. A policy package to address some of these key environmental challenges could cost as little as a loss of 0.03 percentage points in annual average GDP growth globally to 2030. OECD ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030 ISBN 978-92-64-04048-9 OECD 2008 8 For many of these actions, there will be long delays before their benefits are realised; and in turn, many short-sighted policy decisions tak
