1、|2022102 2022 1 2 3 2021 AI 3 2022 Second 2022 1.4 2022 Second2020 10 70%0%50%100%2000 1990 2020 2010 1990-2020%International Energy Agency 30 8%4%8%26%39%37%41%34%28%34%28%4%7%6%8%22%10%6%7%1%8%5%7%70-80%2050 71%60%0%100%50%2030E 2050E 2020 2040E71%67%65%57%5 2022 Second 2020/1532071312979314223102
2、6958824280 HEV PHEV242BEV3311962111480 HEV 44 44 CAFC NEV2020 5L/100km2020 200 2022 2030 100%BEV+FCV 2030 50%2039 2040 2050 6 2022 Second 1 2 3 SIC 2025 64%2030 78%90 90 00 4G 5G 70 80 90 00 8/1 90%25-30%5000 93%93%91%91%90%52%38%2030 2020 202526%1.n=3019 SIC 2020 5501932020s 2000s 2010s64%2025 64%7
3、8%2030 78%/7 2022 Second 5G V2X 1 OTA 2/3 OEM 8 2022 Second 2022 2.9 2022 Second(2018-2030)1,%0%10%20%30%40%50%05,00010,00015,00020,00078%16,9806,9681%4%22%93822%47%19%78%10%2018 20196%81%202013%21%82%18%202184%16%2025F90%2030F1,2551,1412,837 2035(2018-2021)%15.014.030.45.04.86.516.712.58.1051015202
4、530352018 2019 2020 20213.34.41.33.01.32.718.2 1.TCO IHS TCO 2021 2030 47%2021 13%10 2022 Second 12 2-3 5-10 IGBT EE ECU DCU ECU 1/2 11 2022 SecondSoC23 2-3 5-10 SoC CPU AI NPU MCU DCU SoC SOA AI AI 2/2 12 2022 Second 15,00050,0005,0007,500 5,000 7,500 7,50012,500 12,75085,000 11,900 7,650 4,25032,3
5、0010,2005,950 25%1.10 Wind 40%2021 12 vs 1%295%284%3 3%300%13 2022 Second 1短期 中期 长期 2021 30-40%14 2022 Second IGBT 1 41.10%33.70%40.30%47.70%0%20%40%60%2019 2020 2021H1 2021(2019-2021)2021 30%IGBT(2021)8%35%10%10%5%4%2%2%2%2%IGBT 30-40%70%IGBT IGBT IGBT SiC 200 750 8-12%1/7 IGBT 1/5 IGBT 5-10 SiC Mo
6、del3 Wind 15 2022 Second 1 1.=/2.22 28 30 10 3.62.9 3.03.82.50100052%42%201859%201941%58%48%168202044%56%506202133%67%2022E811222621 3(2018-2022E)29%25%201981%23%17%8%26%22%7%202022%22%17%13%74%2021 77%2(2019-2021)%22 28 30 2020 300 30(2019-2022E)(2019-2021)%3065551,2982,000050002020 201954%81%20211
7、34%2022E 40%60%2021 201931%32%52%202017%61%8%100%100%100%2021 11 8 3 10 1000 16 2022 Second 2长 期 发展趋势 ECU ECU DCU ECU ECU ECU Tier1 EE ECU OTA CCM BCM LH(BCM RH)OS OTA 3 ICAS)E/E OS EE V60 PHEV ECU 78 ECU 100 17 2022 Second AISoC MCUBSP/Drivers Hyperviser OS RTOSAUTOSAR Classic AUTOSAR Adaptive Plat
8、formAPI Tier1 2 CPU/GPU 2,000500(L3/4/5)2,000(L2)2,0003,000 500 1600 80 400 3000 120 2025/Tier1 Tier1 18 2022 Second ASIC 2 4385809345678131,4592012 2017 2020 SoC CPU+ASIC SoC 2020 500 2022 M7 4 NVDIA Qrin-X 1016 Tops 2022Q3 G9 2 NVDIA Qrin-X 508 Tops ET7 4 NVDIA Qrin-X 1016 Tops 2022Q12022Q1 L7 NVD
9、IA Qrin-X 508-1016 Tops NVDIA Qrin 256 Tops 65W 3.9 Tops/W SoC CPU+GPU+ASICCPU+ASICCPU+FPGA AI ASIC GPU FPGA ASIC Waymo Intel CPU Altera FPGA19 2022 Second 2 Tier2上游 中游 下游 Tier1 OEM Tier1 OEM Tier1 EE Tier1 ADAS License 1,000ADAS 100-15050-100OS 200-30050-80 200-300 AI 200-300 OTA100-150200-300 IP 2
10、0 2022 Second 3L5 L4 L3 L2 L1 2 7 8 9 91 1 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 80 0 1 2-3 4-6 9 16 22 24 26 L3 14681217240246810121416182022242019 2023E 2020 2021 2022E 2024E 2025E 2025 24 44%21 2022 Second AI 3 L1 L22TopsL4 L30L520Tops400Tops4,000+Tops L4 AI 400Tops L5 4000Tops AI ES6/EC6 Mobileye ES6/EC6 Mobileye 2020
11、ONE Mobileye ES6/EC6 Model S Mobileye FSD A8 Mobileye NA Mobileye AI Qrin FSD Mobileye EyeQ5 910 5 GPU FPGA ASIC ASIC ASIC ASIC 254 72 24 256 128 106 75W 36W 10W 350W 30W 25W 7nm 14nm 7nm 7nm 12nm 16nm 22 2022 Second 2022 3.23 2022 Second IPO 24 2022 Second AI 2133 32275832285632762020 2021 2022H196
12、147(2020-2022.6)2021 2022 BMS HUD SoC TBOX OBU RSU 5=25 2022 Second IGBT/JV JV JV 26 2022 Second 2020-05 80 2019-12 2016-06 2016-03 2015-05 1.89 IPO 2014-01 2021 12 4.4 26.47%80 2023+27 2022 Second 2022-06 2021-06 15 C+2021-05 3 C+2021-03 C+2021-02 3.5 C+2021-01 4 C+2021 2 C+L4/L5 45%L2 2015 7 AI IP AI AI AI 28 2022 Second NOMI 70%Innovusion 29 2022 Second IPO IPO 30 2022 Second 2022 4.31 2022 Second 投前 投后/32 2022 Second Ted Jiang Xinxuan Sheng Gloria Wu Andy Zhou Chris Lin Laurain Zhao Deloitte 100 1917 cnzhsocial-media 2022
