1、Carbon Budget Account Proposal and Its Implications 碳预算账户方案及其含义Yongsheng Zhang/张永生 Senior Research Fellow/研究员 Development Research Center of the State Council, P.R.China 科技部“绿色发展与科技创新”高层论坛 18/11/2010，中国,北京,Structure1.Carbon Budget Account Proposal 2. On historic responsibility 3. On the start year o
2、f historic responsibility 4. Implications of the proposal to China,1. Carbon Budget Account ProposalBasic ideaTo achieve carbon equityTo clearly define “common but differentiated responsibilities” with per capita principle.Why per capita cumulative principle? If a countrys per capita cumulative emis
3、sions is greater than the world average level, it means it imposes extra hazard to the other countries and occupies the development space of the other countries, and should pay for its extra emissions. To establish an Emission Account (NEA) for each country according to eachs (i) emissions entitleme
4、nts, (ii) actual emissions, and (iii) traded emission quotas. The balances of NEAs exactly represent each countrys “differentiated responsibility”.,Time Horizon,Time Horizon of Emission Entitlements Allocation,Note：T0 represents industrial revolution or other point; T1 current point（e.g. 2010）; T2 a
5、 future point（e.g. 2050）。,Three steps:Step 1: apply per capita principle in T0-T1 to define each countrys historic emission entitlements, and turn the unclear “historic responsibilities” to clear emission deficits (deficits Vs. surplus).Step 2: to scientifically set global emission target in the fut
6、ure (from T1 to T2), and then allocate the emission quotas among all countries according to per capita principle. The total balance of two periods T0-T1 and T1-T2 is a countrys total emission cap by T2.,Step 3: to establish an open-and-compatible systemInternationally: any existing collaborative mec
7、hanism can be used, as long as their effectiveness is eventually reflected on each countrys balances of NEA IETS, JI, CDM, International Public Emission Reduction Funds, technology transfer and R&D, othersFor instance, if a country made contribution to the Intl Funds, then its account balance will b
8、e raised proportionally. If a country got money from the Funds, then its account balance needs to be decreased proportionally.Nationally: all countries can choose their domestic approach, as long as they meet their emission caps by T2. ETS, carbon tax, hybrid system, emission regulation, etc. each c
9、ountry can determine the number of its annual emission permits and make credible emission reduction road map.,Advantages of the Proposal Full coverage: all countries can be covered. Effectiveness: the global reduction target is built into the proposal.rights of developing countries can be well prote
10、cted. CDM: (i) additionality problem: balances of both developed and developing countries change at the same time.(ii) CDM can be further extended to a two way mechanism. Can be used in either two track or combined track.,Preliminary Results:Developed countries have deficit and developing countries
11、have surplus, clearly reflecting the “differentiated responsibilities”.The years different countries can continue to emit (measured in 2006s emission) Annex 1 countries: - 30 years None-Annex 1 countries: 90 yearsChina: 47 years; India: 224 years Brazil: 125 years; Indonesia: 164 years,5) What are o
12、pen for further discussions in the proposal?1. When to start to calculate historic accumulated emission: 1760s? 1900? 1950s? 1980s? 1990? Either is ok, as long as the developed countries can justify the starting point!2. How the developed countries to clean their emission deficits? Various ways: buy
13、 emission quotas from developing countries, JI, CDM, Intl Public fund, technology transfer, assistanceetc.3. How long for the developed countries to clean their carbon deficit? Till 2050? 2100? Open for discussion!4. The global target: 2C, 3C, or 4C? 350?450ppm? 550? Either is ok, as long as the tar
14、get is scientifically set and is feasible to be achieved.,2. On historic responsibilityIn response to some typical arguments from developed countries,“Our grandfathers did not know the hazard of the GHG emissions”. But: there is a legal principle of objective responsibility, e.g. in the US, a pollut
15、er cannot escape a penalty by claiming unawareness of the environmental damages caused. the grandfather-made emissions are still in the atmosphere, imposing harm to the people, especially to the people in the third world.,“It is unfair to ask the current generation to take responsibility for their g
16、randfathers emissions”Without their grandfathers historic emissions, the people in the industrial countries could not have the wealthy life. The current population are the beneficiaries. If the developed countries dont pay, then who will pay? It means the poor countries have to pay for the grandfath
17、ers emissions (suffering, & expensive adaptation).,“Developing countries should not stick on historic responsibility, but should avoid the mistakes we made and look forward the future”These are two different issues: historic responsibility & the future growth model. More emissions space does not mea
18、n the developing countries will go a high carbon growth model in the future.,“We are democratic country and the congress would never accept too much historic responsibility or agree to have deep cut”realistic but unreasonable. A more effective global governance is needed. Responsibility has nothing
19、to do with if a country is democratic or not.,3. On the start year of historic responsibilityWhy 1990 cannot be justified as start year of historic responsibility?A popular argument: “1990 should be the start year of historic responsibility since the IPCC first published its assessment report in 199
20、0”.,Firstly, the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” was established as early as in 1992. The term of “differentiated responsibilities” refers to the emissions all countries made from the industrial revolution to 1992, NOT from 1990 to 2010. The Rio Declaration (1992) states: “
21、In view of the different contributions to global environmental degradation, States have common but differentiated responsibilities. The developed countries acknowledge the responsibility that they bear in the international pursuit of sustainable development in view of the pressures their societies p
22、lace on the global environment and of the technologies and financial resources they command.” (Principle 7). Similar language exists in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change: “parties should act to protect the climate system “on the basis of equality and in accordance with their common but d
23、ifferentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.”,Secondly, the emissions industrial countries historically made since industrial revolution (before 1990) is still imposing hazard to developing countries: the most vulnerable population.Theoretically, the start year of historic responsibil
24、ity should begin from the industrial revolution. Nonetheless, considering of the data availability, it may start from 1900 or something.,4. Implications to China Per capita principle means China can never adopt Business-as-usual growth model in the future. Chinas per capita accumulated emission can only reach the world average per capita level, NOT the current high level of real emission in the developed countries.China will have huge pressure under the per capita principle.China should try its hardest to mitigate.,Thank you!,
