1、 Probability Science Development: Thoughts of Great Scientists in Chronological Order Table 1 Thoughts of great scientists in chronological order* NN Country Scientists Primary Thoughts Years of Life or Research Period 1 Italy Gerolamo Cardano Liber de Ludo Aleae (Games of Chance) in 1566 1501-1576
2、2 France Blaise Pascal Propability calculations appearance (1654) 1623-1662 3 France Pierre de Fermat Propability calculations appearance (1655) 1607-1665 4 Germany Hermann Conring State description/ State Studies, first lectures at German Universities in 1666 1606-1881 5 England Jojn Graund Natural
3、 and Political observations made upon the Bills of Mortality (School of Political Arithmetics) 1620-1674 6 Germany William Petty Political arithmetics thoughts 1623-1687 7 Germany Ediund Halley Political arithmetics thoughts 1656-1742 8 Swizeland Jacob Bernoulli Acta Eruditorum, where showed that th
4、e problem of determining the isochrone is equivalent to solving a first-order nonlinear differential equation (1690) 1655-1705 9 Russia Ivan.K. Kirilov Atlas of the All - Russian Empire 1722-1737 10 Russia Vasyli Tatishchev Brief economic notes before the village (1737) 1686-1750 11 Germany Gottfrie
5、d Achenwal Proposed to replace the name of the course “State description (1746) 1719-1772 12 Germany August Ludwig Schletzer State Studies on “Statistics” 1735-1809 13 Russia Mikhail Lomonosov Russian Atlas 1758 1711-1765 14 Germany Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss A mathematical prodigy, Johann Carl Fri
6、edrich Gauss laid much of the groundwork for statistics, particularly in the area of probability theory. He may be best known for the method of least squares, which focuses on managing errors in observations. Gave a proof of the fundamental theorem of algebra: every polynomial equation with real or
7、complex coefficients has as many roots 1777-1855 2 (solutions) as its degree (the highest power of the variable) 15 Belgium Adolphe Quetelet Adolphe Quetelet developed bell curves to describe humans devianceliterallyfrom both physical and moral norms. 1796-1874 16 France Pierre-Simon de Laplace A ph
8、ilosophical essay on probabilities (1902) Elementary illustrations of the celestial mechanics of Laplace (1809) 1749-1827 17 Britain Fransis Galton Known for his pioneering studies of human intelligence 1822-1911 18 Britain Thomas Bayes Theologian and mathematician who was the first to use probabili
9、ty inductively and who established a mathematical basis for probability inference 1702-1761 19 Russia Karl Ferman “Statistical description of the Yaroslavl province” (1805),“Statistical study of the Russian Empire, part 1. On population” (1818) 1844-1933 20 Belgium Adolphe Ketpe Social Physics, or E
10、xperience in Research on the Development of Human Abilities (1836) 1796-1874 21 France Simon-Denis Poisson A treatise of mechanics 1781-1840 22 England A.L. Bowley Started lectures at LSE, Elements of Statistics (1895) 1869-1957 23 Russia P.P. Semyonov Tyan-Shansky All-Russian population census 1827
11、-1914 24 Russia Pafnutny Chebyshev Formulated the law of large numbers 1821-l894 25 Russia Andrei Markov The creator of mathematical theories capable of describing complex phenomena 1856-1917 26 Russia Alexander Lyapunov Generalized the ideas of Chebyshev and Markov and laid theoretical foundations
12、in the practice of selective observation in statistics 1857-1918 27 British Francis Galton Fitted normal curves to data, discovered reversion (later called regression) to the mean, and correlation 1822-1911 28 British Francis Edgeworth The first to compare means of two populations, using a precursor
13、 to the two-sample t test 1845-1926 3 29 USA Florence Nightingale Development and generalization of statistical data. Pioneer development in the field of statistical graphics. While Florence Nightingale is widely celebrated as a nurse, she is also considered one of the great American statisticians.
14、Nightingale traveled as a nurse to a hospital during the Crimean War in 1854 and found the conditions alarmingly unsanitary. She proceeded to use her skills in data collection and analysis, which had been honed by her study of mathematics. Doing this, she provided evidence that the conditions surrou
15、nding the soldiers were likely more deadly than the wounds incurred during battle. She created a polar area diagram that clearly established that facta novel approach at that time. 1820-1910 30 British Carl Pearson Pearsons scholarly work facilitated the use of statistics in scientific discovery. Hi
16、ghlighting the importance of correlation and curves, he developed the chi-square distribution and the method of moments. Pearson founded the statistics department at the University College London in 1911 and wrote “The Grammar of Science” (“Statistics is the grammar of science”) in 1932. Introduced
17、moments, Pearsons correlation coefficient, P-value, Pearsons chi-square test, principal component analysis, among many other things 1857-1936 31 British Ronald Fischer Introduced randomization test, named and promoted the analysis of variance and the design of experiments 1890-1968 32 Germany Wilhel
18、m Lexis Statistics development 1837-1914 33 Italian Corrado Jini Statistics development 1884-1965 34 Russia Aleksandr Chuprov His merits in the development of statistics were recognized not only in Russia, but also abroad. In 1924 A.A. Chuprov was elected an honorary member of the Royal Society of S
19、tatistics 1842-1908 35 France Henri Poincare Analysis situs (1895) Science and Method (1903) 1854-1912 36 Russia Aleksandr Kaufman “Theory and Methods of Statistics” (1916) 1864-1919 4 37 Russia Nikolai Kablukov Theory and methods of statistics: highlights in the history of its development 1849-1919
20、 38 British William Sealy Gosset Development of t-distribution, a method for interpreting information extracted from small samples of data 18761937 39 USA Jerzy Neyman Neyman-Pearson theory (1928) 1894-1981 40 USA Edwards Deming Innovation in organizational and systems management 1900-1993 41 USA Jo
21、hn Tukey Coining of the term “bit” from binary digit 1915-2000 42 British Ronald A. Fisher Groundwork for much of experimental design, statistical inference, and the procedure known as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 1890-1962 43 China Chen Da Labor issues in China; Population Issues He abandoned abstr
22、act suspense and adopted experimental observation, the fundamental aspect of which is the scientific method extrapolated from the natural sciences to the social sciences. 1929-1934 44 Russia Andrey N. Kolmogorov Foundations of the Theory of Probability (1931) 1903-1987 45 USA Eugene Wigner concernin
23、g quantum theory, the joint density function (1932) 1902-1995 46 China Xu Baolu He pioneered the teaching of probability theory and mathematical statistics in China. He has made outstanding achievements in Neiman-Pearson theory, parameter estimation theory, multivariate analysis, limit theory, etc.
24、Xu Baolu is one of the pioneers of multivariate statistical analysis (1934) 1910-1970 47 China/USA Zhou Yuanshen (Yuan Shih Chow) “Probability and Statistics” (1934) 1924-2022 48 USA Gertrude Cox Statistics education and research with a focus on experimental design. Disproportionate subclass numbers
25、 in tables of multiple classification (1935); Covariance used to analyse the relation between corn yield and acreage (1936) 1900-1978 49 Italy Carlo Bonferroni Bonferroni inequalities (1936) 1892-1960 50 China Wang Jueming Founder of the Chinese biostatistics from 1940 51 Great Britain Paul Dirac Ne
26、gative probability 1942 52 Sweden Harald Cramer Mathematical Methods of Statistics (1946) 1893-1985 5 53 USA Joseph L. Doob MLE proof, his fundamental work in establishing probability as a branch of mathematics and for his continuing profound influence on its development (1940) 1910-2004 54 Great Br
27、itain M. S. Bartlett Stochastic processes (1945) 1910-2002 55 Romania Abraham Wald Simplified and developed Doobs proof of the consistency of MLE (1949) 1902-1950 56 USA Irving John Good Probability and the Weighing of Evidence (1950), The Estimation of Probabilities: an Essay on Modern Bayesian Met
28、hods (1965), 1916-2009 57 China Kam kwok-po Outline of Statistics, Research on Chinas economic problems. Using statistics to solve Chinas economic problems 1950 58 China Ching Chun Li Introduction to experimental statistics. The principle of random/double-blind is proposed 1964 59 USA Goodman, L. A.
29、, Kruskal, W. H. Measures of Association for Cross Classifications from 1979 60 USA Berger, James O. Statistical Decision Theory 1980 61 China Pao-Lu Hsu The complete works of Hsu pao-lu . Mr. Xu did a series of theoretical pioneering work in statistical inference and multivariate analysis, introduc
30、ing many branches of mathematics, such as Matrix theory, function theory, measure theory, etc., it makes the theoretical basis of many problems in statistics more profound, and gradually forms a mainstream direction in statistics-mathematical statistics. 1983 62 USA R. P. Feymnan Integral formulatio
31、n of quantum mechanics (1987) 1918-1988 63 China Du You “The universal dictionary” is a special account of the evolution of the ancient rules and regulations, from the ancient times of Yellow Emperor, to the end of Emperor Xuanzong of Tang Tianbao (Sukjong, Daizong and later changes, sometimes also
32、attached to notes), divided into nine categories, with food first, in order to election, official, ceremony, music, soldiers, torture, state and county, border defense, each category and each molecular head. The origin and development of the rules and regulations in the past dynasties are described
33、in detail 1988 6 64 Australia Eugine Seneta Non-negative Matrices and Markov Chains from 1981 65 USA Miller, Rupert G. Jr. Imultaneous Statistical Inference (1981) 1933-1986 66 USA Anscombe, Francis John Computing in Statistical Science through APL 2000 67 China Liu Jun Monte Carlo Strategies in sci
34、entific computing. In the area of statistical theory, Liu Jun founded the sequential Monte Carlo method and constructed an important theoretical framework for the methods and design of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). “Gibbs conservative string sampling and pointer”, proposed by Liu Jun, is one
35、of the two important methods used by biologists to search for ingenious patterns in DNA and protein sequences. 2001 68 China Chen Hansheng Land issues in modern China. Industrial capital and Chinese Peasants. He insisted on Marxist stand, viewpoint and method, analyzed and studied Chinese agricultur
36、e, peasants and rural issues, and demonstrated the social nature of Chinese rural semi-feudalism and Semi-colony with first-hand rural investigation materials, point out the way of agricultural development in China. 1897- 2004 69 USA David Blackwell David Blackwell was a statistician and teacher who
37、se influence on game, probability and information theory can still be found in the classroom today. He chaired the Department of Statistics at UC Berkeley, one of the worlds top centers for mathematical statistics, where he was the first tenured African American professor. He was also the first Afri
38、can American inducted into the National Academy of Sciences. 1919-2010 70 British George Box Expertise in data transformations 1919-2013 71 USA Janet Norwood Enhancement of critical government statistics 1923-2015 72 Austria Johann Pfanzagl Mathematical Statistics： Essays on History and Methodology
39、2017 73 USA John Venter One of the most influential and famous scientists of today. In February 2001, Venter and his team published a human genome 2001 7 sequence after using a technique known as Expressed Sequence Tags, or ESTs. 74 Canada Yi, Grace Y. Statistical Analysis with Measurement Error or
40、Misclassification： Strategy, Method and Application 2017 75 Canada, USA Ramsay, James, Hooker, Giles Dynamic Data Analysis： Modeling Data with Differential Equations. 2017 76 Austria Filzmoser, Peter, Hron, Karel, Templ, Matthias. Applied Compositional Data Analysis： With Worked Examples in R 2018 7
41、7 USA Van der Laan, Mark J., Rose, Sherri. Targeted Learning in Data Science： Causal Inference for Complex Longitudinal Studies 2018 *Here we emphasize the scientist that were mentioned through the course References 1. Qi, L.1999. Viewing Modern Statistics from the Perspective of Statistics History
42、(in Chinese). The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics, 20(102), pp. 105-109. 2. Stephen M. Stigler. 1986.The history of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. 3. Zhou Duofang. 2020. Research on the subject and development law o
43、f statistics in China based on text content analysis. Jiangxi University of Finance and economics, pp. 49-51. 4. Wang Jixue. 2018. Statistical History, current situation and trend analysis. Yunnan University,pp.8-9. 5. William A. Guy. 1885. Statistical Development, with Special Reference to Statistics as a Science. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, Jubilee Volume (Jun. 22 - 24), pp. 72-86 (15 pages), Published By: Wiley 6. Stephen M. Stigler.1996. The history of statistics in 1933. Statist. Sci. 11 (3) 244- 252. https:/doi.org/10.1214/ss/1032280216
