1、1 T h e W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S O c t O b e r 2 0 1 0 gl OBa l Wind e n ergy Ou Tl OOk 20102 c O n T e n T S The g lobal Wind energy Outlook Scenarios 4r eference scenario 5Moderate scenario 5Advanced scenario 5Global scenario results 5 c apacity growth 6Assumptions on gr
2、owth rates 6Scenario results 6 Production and share of global electricity supply 8Assumptions on turbine capacity 8and capacity factors 8Projections for electricity demand developments 8Scenario results 9 Investment 11 employment 13 c arbon dioxide savings 13 r esearch background 16t he German Aeros
3、pace c entre 16Scenario background 16energy efficiency study 16 World map 18 r egional scenario results 20 Africa 21 c hina 23 eastern europe/eurasia 27 India 30 Latin America 32 Middle east 35 Non-Oec D Asia 37 Oec D europe 40 Oec D North America 44 Oec D Pacific 47 The worlds wind resources 50 int
4、egrating wind power into electricity systems 54Steve Sawyer Secretary General Global Wind Energy Council Sven t eske Director, Renewable Energy Greenpeace International Klaus r ave Chairman Global Wind Energy Council 3 F O r e W O r d t he Global Wind energy c ouncil and Greenpeace International are
5、 pleased to present this 3rd edition of the Global Wind Energy Outlook for 2010, the successor to the Wind Force 10 and Wind Force 12 series which began in 1999. What were once considered wild-eyed prognoses for a new technology have come to be recognised as an impor- tant planning tool for the futu
6、re of the power sector. Global wind power markets have been for the past several years dominated by three major markets: europe, North America (US), and Asia (c hina and India). While these three markets still accounted for 86% of total installed ca- pacity at the end of 2009, there are signs that t
7、his may be changing. emerging markets in Latin America, Asia and Africa are reaching critical mass and we may be surprised to see one or more of them rise to challenge the three main markets in the coming years. c ommercial wind farms now operate in close to 80 countries, and present many benefits f
8、or both developed and developing countries: increased energy security; stable power prices; economic development which both attracts investment and creates jobs; reduced dependence on imported fuels; improved air quality; and, of course, c O2 emissions reductions. each of these factors is a driver i
9、n different measure in different locations, but in an increas- ing number of countries they combine to make wind power the generation technology of choice. What role will wind power play in the coming two decades and beyond? How much of the global electricity demand will it cover? How much c O2 will
10、 be saved by wind power in 2020 and in 2030? And what will it do for energy independence and economic growth? t hese are the questions that the GWeO seeks to answer. We present three scenarios for the development of the sector here, and play them off against two scenarios for electricity demand deve
11、lopment to come up with a range of possible futures for the sector. Our answers to these questions havent changed dramatically since the 2008 edition, although the performance of the industry in the last two years tracked ahead of our Advanced scenario. What has changed is the IeAs r eference Scenar
12、io. In 2006, the r eference scenario projected 231 GW for 2020 now thats up to 415 GW; and for 2030, the r eference scenario projected 415 GW now thats up to 573GW. Of course, we still think those numbers are very low, but we were very pleased to see that the 2010 edition of the IeAs publication Pro
13、jected Costs of Generating Electricity has onshore wind power replacing oil to join coal, gas and nuclear as the main technologies which will compete for market share in the power sector of the future. but that future remains uncertain. t he global climate negotiations have at least temporarily grou
14、nd to a halt after the worlds governments failed to come up with a successor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol in c openhagen last year. In the absence of a clear international framework and without a clear prospect of a global price on carbon emis- sions, our focus has to be on the national and regional
15、 energy policies which drive local development. to quote the US President, t he nation that leads the world in creating new sources of clean energy will be the nation that leads the 21st-century global economy. An increasing number of governments around the world seem to have taken that message to h
16、eart.4 The g l OBa l Wind e n ergy Ou Tl OOk Scenari OS EDP Renovavies5 T h e g l O B a l W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S t he Global Wind energy Outlook scenarios examine the future potential of wind power up to 2020, 2030 and 2050. Development of these scenarios was carried out
17、 as collabo- ration between the Global Wind energy c ouncil (GWec ), Greenpeace International and the German Aerospace c entre (DLr ). Projections on the future of wind energy development have contributed to a larger study of global sustainable en- ergy pathways up to 2050 conducted by DLr for Green
18、peace and the european r enewable energy c ouncil (erec ) 1 . What will the growth of wind power look like? t here are many variables that will determine its path, and we are presenting three different scenarios for each region, and for the world as a whole, looking first towards 2020, and then onwa
19、rds to 2030 (see annex table for more long-term projections up to 2050). each scenario starts with a range of assumptions which will influence expectations for the wind energy industrys development. r e Fe rence Sc enari O t he most conservative r eference scenario is based on the projections in the
20、 2009 World energy Outlook from the International energy Agency (IeA). t his takes into account only existing policies and measures, but includes assumptions such as continuing electricity and gas market reform, the liberalisation of cross-border energy trade and recent policies aimed at combating p
21、ollution. t he IeAs figures only go out to the year 2030, but based on these assumptions, DLr has extrapolated both the overall r eference scenario and the growth of wind power up to 2050. MOd era Te Sc enari O t he Moderate scenario takes into account all policy measures to support renewable energy
22、 either already enacted or in the planning stages around the world. It also assumes that the targets set by many countries for either renewables, emissions reductions and/or wind energy are successfully implemented, as well as the modest implementation of new policies aimed at pollution and carbon e
23、mission reduction, and increased energy security. It also takes into account environmental and energy policy measures that were part of many government economic stimulus packages implemented since late 2008. Up to 2014 the figures for installed capacity are closer to be- ing forecasts than scenarios
24、. t his is because the data available from the wind energy industry shows the expected growth of worldwide markets over the next five years based on orders for wind turbines already committed, existing legislative programmes and targets, as well as known manufacturing capacity expansion plans. After
25、 2014 the pattern of develop- ment is more difficult to anticipate. a d vanced Sc enari O t he most ambitious scenario, the Advanced version exam- ines the extent to which this industry could grow in a best case wind energy vision. t he assumption here is a clear and unambiguous commitment to renewa
26、ble energy as per the industrys recommendations, along with the political will nec- essary to carry it forward. While again, the development after 2014 is more difficult to predict, this scenario is designed to show what the wind energy sector could achieve if it were given the political com- mitmen
27、t and encouragement it deserves in light of the twin crises of energy security and global climate change. g l OBa l Sc enari O re Su l TS t he GWeO scenarios show that even with the continuation of current policy measures to encourage wind power devel- opment and serious government efforts to meet e
28、xisting targets, the resulting Moderate scenario growth will put the development of wind power on a dramatically different trajectory from the IeA-based r eference scenario. With the political will to fully exploit each countrys wind resource and reap the accompanying economic, environ- mental and e
29、nergy security benefits, the Advanced scenario could be reached, which would see substantial wind power growth in many regions of the world. Wind power would then be instrumental in achieving a genuine energy revolution, putting the world on the path to a sustainable energy future. We are now at a c
30、rossroads for making these decisions, which will determine the future of our energy systems as well as, to a great extent, the future of our planet. 1 See http:/www.energyblueprint.info6 T h e g l O B a l W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S c apacity growth aSS u Mp Ti On S On gr OWT
31、h ra Te S Market growth rates used in these scenarios are based on a mixture of historical figures, current policies and trends, new market development, discussions of future energy policy and other factors. While cumulative annual growth rates of more than 25% per year, as envisaged in the Advanced
32、 scenario, are unusually high in most industries that manufacture heavy equipment, the wind industry has consistently experienced much higher growth. In fact, the global wind markets have grown by an average 28% per year in terms of total installed capacity during the last decade. In the GWeO Advanc
33、ed scenario, the average annual growth for cumulative installed capacity is assumed to start off at 27% in 2010, and then gradually decline to 9% by 2020. by 2030, they will have dropped to 4%. Growth rates as anticipated by the IeA in the r eference scenario start at 17% in 2010, drop to 3% by 2015
34、, stabilising at that level. t he growth rates for the Moderate scenario range from 26% in 2010 to 9% in 2020 and to 5% in 2030. It should also be borne in mind that while growth rates even- tually decline to single figures across the range of scenarios, the level of wind power capacity envisaged in
35、 20-40 years time means that even small percentage growth rates will by then translate into large figures in terms of annually installed megawatts, especially in the advanced and Moderate sce- narios. Scenari O r e Sul TS t he IeAs r eference scenario suggests contrary to the clear upwards trend we
36、have witnessed in the past that growth rates for wind power would decrease substantially in the coming years, and that 2010 would see an addition of only 26.8 GW, which would represent a decrease of the annual market by 30% in 2010 (compared to an increase of 41% in 2009). t he annual market would t
37、hen continue to shrink until 2015 and only recover to reach its 2009 levels again just before 2030. t he cumulative wind power capacity accord- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2030 r eference MW 93,864 120,297 158,505 185,258 295,783 415,433 572,733 t Wh 206 263 347 406 725 1,019 1,405 Moderate MW 93,
38、864 120,297 158,505 198,717 460,364 832,251 1,777,550 t Wh 206 263 347 435 1,129 2,041 4,360 a dvanced MW 93,864 120,297 158,505 201,657 533,233 1,071,415 2,341,984 t Wh 206 263 347 442 1,308 2,628 5,429 g l OBal c u Mul aTiv e Wind pOWer c ap aci Ty 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Reference Moderate
39、Advanced GW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 20307 T h e g l O B a l W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S r egi On al Breakd OWn : MOd era Te Sc enari O 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2030 2020 2010 2009 g W Oecd europe Oecd n orth a merica c hina india Oecd pacific n on- Oecd a sia easte
40、rn europe/ eurasia l atin a merica a frica Middle east 2009 76 39 26 11 5 0,5 0,5 1 0,8 0,1 2010 87 50 40 13 6 0,7 0,9 2 1 0,1 2020 251 220 200 46 37 24 12 28 12 2 2030 447 407 404 108 81 120 71 72 42 25 r egi On al Breakd OWn : r eFerence Sc enari O 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2030 2020 2010 2009
41、 g W Oecd europe Oecd n orth a merica c hina india Oecd pacific n on- Oecd a sia eastern europe/ eurasia l atin a merica a frica Middle east 2009 76 39 26 11 5 0,5 0,4 1 0,8 0,1 2010 86 45 33 12 5 0,6 0,9 2 1 0,1 2020 184 106 70 24 11 4 6 5 3 2 2030 234 141 95 31 19 16 13 11 8 6 r egi On al Breakd O
42、Wn : a d vanced Sc enari O 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2030 2020 2010 2009 g W Oecd europe Oecd n orth a merica c hina india Oecd pacific n on- Oecd a sia eastern europe/ eurasia l atin a merica a frica Middle east 2009 76 39 26 11 5 0,5 0,5 1 0,8 0,1 2010 87 50 41 13 6 0,7 0,9 2 1 0,1 2020 279 27
43、9 250 65 48 55 16 37 19 11 2030 515 622 513 161 109 140 87 93 67 348 T h e g l O B a l W i n d e n e r g y O u T l O O k S c e n a r i O S ing to this projection would stand at 415 GW in 2020 and 572 GW in 2030. For this to happen, annual additions would need to decline substantially, especially in
44、c hina, although there is no indication of this happening at present. Overall, the r eference scenario seems disconnected from current developments, and curiously pessimistic. While the r eference scenario suggests that between 20 and 26 GW of new capacity will be added each year between 2010 and 20
45、20, reaching 41 GW/year only in 2030, the Moderate scenario envisages the addition of 40.2 GW two decades earlier (in 2010), followed by 63 GW/year by 2015, close to 90 GW/year by 2020, and almost 150 GW/year by 2030. t his translates into 100 GW more installations per year than the r eference scena
46、rio by 2030, even though the annual market growth rate would by then have dropped off to a modest 4% per year. In terms of total installed wind power capacity, 830 GW would be reached in 2020 (twice as much as under the r eference scenario), and close to 1,800 GW by 2030 (more than three times as much). In the a dvanced scenario, the difference would be even more striking. Annual market growth rates here start at 27% for 2010, and then decrease to 17% by 2015, 9% by 2020 and
