1、风险与保险原理第一章：Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.（风险这里指的是可能受到下行损失的概率，有三个特征）1. Risk not subjective - a state of the real world2. Risk can exist whether or not it is perceived3. Risk can be imagined where possib
2、ility of loss does not existUncertainty refers to a state of mind characterized by a lack of knowledge or doubt about the future.（不确定性指的是缺乏了解、怀疑未来的一种心理状态）The degree of risk： 分为必然、不可能和可能事件Peril: the cause of loss（损失的原因）Hazard: a condition that creates or increases the chance of loss（导致损失概率变化的条件）Hazar
3、d 分为（ Physical 实质性的 Moral 道德上的 Morale 心理层次的 legal 法律上的）第一层：风险的分类1. Financial and non-financial（财务和非财务的）2. Static and dynamic（静态和动态的）3. Fundamental and particular（基本和特定的）4. Pure and speculative（纯粹的和投机）第二层：Pure and speculative（重点考察）1. Speculative risks involve the possibility of loss or gain. They are
4、 voluntarily accepted because of the possibility of gain.（投机风险是自找的，有可能获利有可能损失，自愿接受）2. Pure risks involve the possibility of loss or no loss only. （只可能损失）3. In general, insurance deals with pure risks only.（保险只解决纯粹风险）第三层：纯粹风险的分类1. Personal risks（个人风险）2. Property risks（财产风险）3. Liability risks（责任风险，是我国
5、的新晋风险）指的是现有资产或者未来收入损失的概率，也就是因为有意或无意的损害或者对他人权利的侵犯而导致被估损失或者法律责任增加。4. Risks arising out of failure of others（因他人失败而产生的信用风险）第四层：（个人风险）Personal risks consist of the possibility of loss of income or assets as a result of the loss of the ability to earn income. （失去收入能力而引起收入或财产受损的风险）In general, earning powe
6、r is subject to four perils: 1. premature death, （早逝风险）2. dependent old age, （年老风险）3. sickness or disability（生病和残疾风险）4. Unemployment.（失业风险）第 2 章：Risk management is a scientific approach to the problem of dealing with the pure risks facing individuals and organizations.风险管理的定义：解决个人或者组织所面对纯粹风险的科学办法，即预
7、测风险，最小化损失。保险起源于 corporate insurance buying（公司保险购买） ，如今风险管理包括 decision theory, risk financing, and risk control. （决策理论、风险融资、风险控制）风险管理工具（Risk Management Tools）1.Risk Control 风险控制：广义上包括减少组织所面临风险导致的损失Avoidance（规避）avoidance takes place when decisions are made that prevent a risk from even coming into exi
8、stence.（即风险决策使得风险无法生成）Reduction（减少）define a broad set of efforts aimed at minimizing risk. （致力于最小化风险的努力）2.Risk Financing 风险融资（保证资金足够应对损失）guarantee the availability of funds to meet those losses that do occur. Retention（自留）： exposures that are not avoided, reduced, or transferred are retained. （没有被规避
9、，减少或者转移的风险成为自留风险）分为 Intentional / Unintentional（非/ 故意）：通常是没有意识到风险的存在，往往都是不好的Voluntary / Involuntary Retention（非/ 自愿）：一般是有办法解决风险，除非不可能规避减少转移Funded / Unfunded（非/筹资） Transfer（转移）通常用1.Purchase of insurance 买保险2.Hedging 对冲3.Hold harmless agreements 免责协议4.Subcontracting certain activities 分包5.Surety bonds
10、 保证书 Risk sharing 风险分担（特殊的自留和转移）finance, insurance and risk control 金融、保险、风险控制是风险管理的核心The Risk Management Process 风险管理的步骤1. Determination of objectives 确定目标2. Identification of risks 风险确认3. Evaluation of risks 风险评估4. Consideration of alternatives - selection of the tool 工具选择5. Implementing the decis
11、ion 决策实施6. Evaluation and review 评估第三章insurance has two fundamental characteristics:什么是保险1.Transfer of risk from the individual to the group.转移风险从个体到群体2.Sharing of losses on some equitable basis.平摊损失，分摊风险Individual Perspective 个人角度定义保险Use a small certain cost to cover a large uncertain financial los
12、s.用小成本覆盖大不确定损失The law of large numbers 大数定律（必考）作用：预测准确性；用大数定律去实践Social Perspective 社会角度定义保险Eliminate risk by combining a large number of homogeneous exposures to make the losses predictable. 通过集成大数风险使得损失可预测来降低风险risk transfer emphasizes the individuals substitution of a small certain cost for large u
13、ncertain loss.风险转移强调个人以小成本规避大风险pooling or risk sharing emphasizes the role of reducing risk in the aggregate. 风险分摊强调通过大数减少风险Elements of an Insurable Risk 可保风险的要素1. Large numbers of exposure units 大量风险单位2. Definite and measurable loss 损失可测量3. The loss must be fortuitous 损失是偶然的4. The loss must not be
14、catastrophic 不能是巨灾的Classification of Private Insurance 私人保险的分类1. Life Insurance 寿险2. Accident and health Insurance 意外健康险3. Property and liability insurance 财产责任险第四章Minimax Regret Strategy 最小化最大遗憾策略这个策略里不考虑概率，适用于不买保险时最坏结果难以被接受的情况Risk Characteristics as Determinants of Tool 风险管理工具决策模型第五章Types of Compa
15、ny by Product 保险公司的分类，依据产品1. Life insurers 寿险2. Property and Liability insurers 财产与责任险3. Health and Accident insurers 健康意外险Distinction Between Agent and Broker 代理人和经纪人的区别High FrequencyLow FrequencyHigh SeverityAvoidReduceTransferLow SeverityReduceRetainRetainAgent 代理人：an individual authorized by an
16、insurer to create, modify, and terminate contracts of insurance.（保险公司的代表，代理人帮助保险公司创造、修订和终止保险合约，有权暂时缔结风险合同，出现问题保险公司负责）Broker 经纪人：a representative of the insured who solicits business from insurance buyers but who is compensated by the insurer.（投保人的代表，站在客户的立场上以自己的能力为受托人行事，出现损失，承担责任）Cash-Flow Underwrit
17、ing 现金流量承保的意义指的是有些保险公司承保过程是亏损的，但是因为投资收益较大，因此仍然带来收益。第六章Market failure Economic Theories of Regulation 监管的经济学理论1. Market Failure Theory（市场失灵理论）2. Capture Theory3. Public Choice TheoryAreas Regulated 被监管的领域1.Solvency 偿付能力监管，各类储备金2.Market Regulation 市场监管3.Rates 比率监管Solvency Regulation Reserves 偿付能力监管之储备
18、金（三类储备金） Life insurance policy reserves 寿险储备金 P it is not the possibility of death that is insured, but of untimely death.保险的对象是不合乎时宜的死亡，或者说是过早的死亡3. There is no possibility of partial loss. Therefore all policies are cash payment policies.没有部分损失，因此都是现金赔付政策。Current Life Insurance Products 现在的寿险产品Univ
19、ersal Life 万能险Variable Life Insurance 变额寿险第十三章Life Insurance Premium Computation 寿险保费的计算1 年的政策交多少钱5 年的费用等于过去 5 年的总折现值除以第一年活着的人数储备金等于未来收益的现值减去未来保费的现值第十四章Incontestable Clause 不可抗辩条款1. Insurer cannot contest the policy after it has been in effect for two years during the lifetime of the insured.在保险实施两年
20、后不可以解除合同（抗辩）2. After insurer has had a reasonable opportunity to investigate validity of the contract, social advantages outweigh undesirable consequences.当公司有足够的机会发现而未发现，过期，社会将关注被保人利益，而非公司，即使此时能証明有欺诈早已存在！Grace Period 宽限期1. A grace period of 31 days after the due date is allowed for the payment of a
21、 premium.保费支付后的 31 天内2. If insured dies during the grace period, the premium is deducted from the benefits paid to the beneficiary. 宽限期内被保险人挂了，保费就从收益里面扣Reinstatement 复议1. If a lapsed policy has not been surrendered for its cash value, it may be reinstated within 5 years from the date of lapse.5 年内可复
22、议，如果利益低于现值2. Reinstatement requires that the insuredprovide evidence of insurability 要提供可保证据pay overdue premiums plus interestreinstate any indebtedness with interestSuicide Clause 自杀条款1. Death by suicide is excluded only during the first two years of the contract.前两年挂掉，无效2. Some companies limit exc
23、lusion to one year.有的时候一年第十五章不丧失现金价值 Non-Forfeiture Values当保单正式生效并经过一段时间后，投保人因为种种原因，不愿意或者不能继续持续交费，保单此时已经产生的现金价值，不会因此而消失，仍旧属于投保人。1. Cash option 用保单已经产生的现金来交保费2. Paid-up reduced amount 保额降低3. Extended term insurance 相当于保险期限变短共同灾难条款 Common Disaster Clausewhere the insured and the beneficiary have died
24、and there is no evidence that they died other than simultaneously, life insurance proceeds shall be distributed as if the insured survived the beneficiary. 如果保险人与受益人同时挂掉，判定保险人先挂如果有证据表明受益人比保险人活得久，哪怕一丢丢也算，也算受益人的政策贷款条款1. Insured may obtain a loan from the insurer equal to the policy cash value被保险人可以从保险公司获得一笔等价于现金价值的贷款
