1、经济评论null 2010年第 1期 ECONOM ICnull REVIEW null No. 1null 2010SNo46null null null 基于 SVAR模型的研究赵昕东*null nullK1: 房地产价格与宏观经济有着紧密的联系b本文利用 1999年 1季度至 2009年2季度的居民消费价格指数a国内生产总值a货币供给与住宅价格指数的季度数据,应用结构向量自回归模型估计了供给冲击a需求冲击与货币政策冲击对中国房地产价格变动的动态影响以及房地产价格冲击对通货膨胀率a国内生产总值增长率与货币存量增长率变动的动态影响b结果显示正向的房地产价格冲击最终导致通货膨胀率和国内生产总值
2、增长率上升到一个新的高度,使货币供给增长率下降到一个较低的水平;而正向的供给冲击a需求冲击与货币政策冲击最终均导致房地产价格增长率上升到一个新的高度b1oM: 房地产价格null 宏观经济变量null 结构向量自回归模型Ba -b WGDP9 q5F 6, /,KT =B1 s -9 q ,BV VVm4 AbBTV NF 698 | 69, 9 p9T,rTV31 7 SVC bm3null GDP9 qMm4null GDP9 qMN Yf N Yf _N ;i 9 q9 Ynm5m6bm5,_N M29 q9 21C/,31 S b WM29 q5F /,h 69/,KT =B9 q ,
3、BV VVm6 AbN Vn,N9qF h P ; | l ;,h ;bm5null ;i 9 qMm6null ;i 9 qMN Yf N Yf 8 ,_N KYn qGDP9 q 6B, P ;9 q/BbN 6 Bt,; ?O69, V ?F Ynb(=)46 N Ysm7- 12sY N9 qM a p ; Yf b_ i“ F N9 qBQ h,Vm7 V A_ PN9 q9 6,21 7 S ,v41 Yh b WN9 q5F 6,h 6,KT =B9 q ,BV VVm8 AbTV BZ 6TN, 6BZ wYn P rTv Yn L= l /7h prTbm7nullN9 qM
4、m8nullN9 qM Yf Yf Vm9 V A_ p PN9 q9 6,21,31 7 S p Y th b V VVm10 A, WN9 q11F 6,21v 31 6iT =B s -9 q bm9nullN9 qMm10nullN9 qM p Yf p Yf m11,_ ; 11 PN9 q 6,i21rK, 707 S/,31 7 S ; Yh , WN9 q5F 6,h 6,KT =B9 q ,BV VVm12 Ab_ ; KrT PN9 q 6Bbm11nullN9 qMm12nullN9 qM ; Yf ; Yf 8 ,_ a p ; K (N9 q 6BbBalSVAR 9
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