1、Unit 3,Property Boom,Checking,Checking,Reviewing (Unit 2)disruptive changea snowball effecta turnover of $3.8 milliona cult horror-film makerexert rigorous control男巫令人感到压抑的生活收益源原地不动 每况愈下,Previewing (Unit 3)debaclecommercial propertyprophets scornedregimeadjustable-rate mortgage房地产泡沫宏观经济环境系统性风险投机性买房资
2、产负债表,Checking,Reviewing (Unit 2)disruptive changea snowball effecta turnover of $3.8 milliona cult horror-film makerexert rigorous control男巫令人感到压抑的生活收益源原地不动 每况愈下,Reviewing (Unit 2) 颠覆性的改变 雪球效应 380万美元的营业额 狂热的恐怖电影制造商 实行严格的控制 a wizard a stifling life revenue stream stay put go downhill,Checking,Preview
3、ing (Unit 3)debaclecommercial propertyprophets scornedregimeadjustable-rate mortgage房地产泡沫宏观经济环境系统性风险投机性买房资产负债表,Previewing (Unit 3) 彻底失败 商用不动产 被藐视的预言者 管理体制; 机制 可变利率抵押贷款 housing bubble macroeconomic environment systemic risk speculative home buying balance sheet,Unit 3,Lead-in,These are pictures of th
4、e top six skyscrapers in the world. Can you recognize them? Match the pictures with their names.,1),2),3),5),4),6),4),1),2),3),6),5),Text A Between a Rock and a Living Space,Title,Between a Rock and a Living Space,between _ and _ between the devil and the deep sea between a rock and a hard place 进退维
5、谷,进退两难,Between a Rock and a Living Space,Between a Rock and a Hard Place autobiography of Aron Ralston published in 2004 experience being trapped in Blue John Canyon in the Utah desert amputate his own right arm with a dull multi-tool arm trapped by a boulder 左右为难,Text A Between a Rock and a Living
6、Space,Title,Text A Between a Rock and a Living Space,Structure Analysis,Structure Analysis,Paras 1-3 An introduction of the current situation of property boom and a brief analysis of reasons and lessons learnt. Paras 4-15 A detailed discussion of what policymakers and financial regulators could do t
7、o control the property bubbles and avoid the crisis. Paras 16-20 A summary of the economic situation both in the US and in the Europe after the bursting of the bubbles and what we can learn from it.,Text A Between a Rock and a Living Space,Detailed Reading,Question 1,What does Robert Shillers index
8、tell?,Robert Shiller 罗伯特希勒,born March 29, 1946 an American economist, academic, and best-selling author a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University received the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences,Question 1,What does Robert Shillers index tell?It is an index showing the fluctuat
9、ion of real house prices in America.,real house prices,inflation-adjusted house prices扣除通货膨胀后的房价,Question 2,What conclusion can we draw from studying Robert Shillers index? for the 100 years or so (1890-1990)starting in the late 1990sin the middle of the first decade of the new century,Question 2,Wh
10、at conclusion can we draw from studying Robert Shillers index? for the 100 years or so (1890-1990) Prices go up and down but gain very little overall.,gain,n. rise in rate or price 增加,Question 2,What conclusion can we draw from studying Robert Shillers index? for the 100 years or so (1890-1990) Pric
11、es go up and down but gain very little overall. starting in the late 1990s House prices pretty much double in real terms within a decade.,in real terms,扣除物价因素；按实质计算 grow in real terms 实际增长 national income in real terms 实际国民收入,Question 2,What conclusion can we draw from studying Robert Shillers index
12、? for the 100 years or so (1890-1990) Prices go up and down but gain very little overall. starting in the late 1990s House prices pretty much double in real terms within a decade.,Question 3,How does the author describe the increase in house prices? The run-up in values was not just unprecedented, i
13、t was obviously lunatic.,run-up,n. a substantial increase over a relatively short period of time 迅速增大,unprecedented ,npresidntid,adj. having no precedent; novel 空前的; 无前例的 an unprecedented success 空前的成功,lunatic lju:ntik,adj. very foolish and possibly dangerous极端愚蠢的; 疯狂的 to lunatic extremes 疯狂到极点,Ques
14、tion 3,How does the author describe the increase in house prices? The run-up in values was not just unprecedented, it was obviously lunatic. 房价发生突然性的猛增不仅仅是前所未有的，而且这显然很疯狂。,Question 2,What conclusion can we draw from studying Robert Shillers index? for the 100 years or so (1890-1990) Prices go up and
15、down but gain very little overall. starting in the late 1990s House prices pretty much double in real terms within a decade. in the middle of the first decade of the new century After hitting the summit , house prices start to plummet.,plummet,vi. decrease quickly by a large amount暴跌,Question 4,What
16、 lessons can we learn from the crisis? The risk management and underwriting practices should be changed. risk management风险管理 underwriting practices保险业务,Question 4,What lessons can we learn from the crisis? The risk management and underwriting practices should be changed: more emphasis on affordabili
17、ty more rigorous stress-testing better pricing for borrowers with more equity to put in,affordability,n. ability to pay , capacity to pay支付能力；负担能力；可购性,equity ekwti,In finance, your equity is the sum of your assets, for example the value of your house, once your debts have been subtracted from it. 资产
18、净值,Question 4,What lessons can we learn from the crisis? The risk management and underwriting practices should be changed: more emphasis on affordability more rigorous stress-testing better pricing for borrowers with more equity to put in,Question 5,What are the reasons for this property boom? Prope
19、rty market is very attractive for banks. Property exerts a siren-like attraction for banks.,Siren,In Greek mythology, the Sirens were dangerous yet beautiful creatures, who lured nearby sailors with their enchanting music and voices to shipwreck on the rocky coast of their island. 希腊神话 塞任 半人半鸟的女海妖 常
20、用美妙歌声引诱水手,令船触礁沉没,Question 5,What are the reasons for this property boom? Property market is very attractive for banks. Property exerts a siren-like attraction for banks.对于银行,房产有着海妖一般的诱惑力。,Question 6,Why is property so appealing to banks? First, property loans are relatively light on capital and back
21、ed by real assets. 房屋产权贷款在基于不动产的基础上相对较容易得到资金。 Second, in retail bank mortgages are thought to anchor long-term relationships with customers. 在银行的零售业务中,抵押贷款被认为是一项能有助于银行与客户建立长期关系的业务。 Third, lending on commercial property is lumpy enough for a single big deal to get sales teams to their targets. 对商业房地产
22、的贷款也由于数额巨大能够一次性地使销售团队达到他们的目标。,Question 7,What are the prophets mentioned in Para. 4?,prophet,n. an authoritative person who divines the future先知; 预言者,Question 7,What are the prophets mentioned in Para. 4? property valuers in Dubai 迪拜的产权估值专家 regulators in Britain and America 英美两国的官方监管机构 whistle-blowe
23、rs inside banks 来自银行内部的揭秘者,Question 8,What did the prophets do? property valuers in Dubai Advised banks that the market was overheating. regulators in Britain and America Issued similar warnings. whistle-blowers inside banks Presented a forecast of a flat housing market.,Question 9,How were the prop
24、hets scorned? property valuers in Dubai Were ignored. regulators in Britain and America Were disregarded. whistle-blowers inside banks Fared litter better.,fare,v. proceed or get along 进展 Whistle-blowers inside banks fared little better.来自银行内部的揭秘者进展得也不顺利。,Sentence Translation,An ex-employee of Count
25、rywide, a particularly gung-ho American lender, recalls presenting a forecast of a flat housing market to a meeting at the bank in 2006 and being shouted down by salespeople, who argued that if they priced for credit risk on that basis they would be out of business.,gung-ho ghu,adj. very enthusiasti
26、c and dedicated起劲的，热心的,a forecast of a flat housing market,公寓房屋市场的预测,shout down,v. to drown, overwhelm, or silence by shouting or talking loudly (通过大声说话来)淹没其他声音,credit risk,Credit risk refers to the risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make payments which it is obligat
27、ed to do.信用风险；信贷风险,Sentence Translation,An ex-employee of Countrywide, a particularly gung-ho American lender, recalls presenting a forecast of a flat housing market to a meeting at the bank in 2006 and being shouted down by salespeople, who argued that if they priced for credit risk on that basis t
28、hey would be out of business. 一位来自美国一家特别活跃的贷款公司的雇员回忆起曾在2006年向一场会议提交了公寓房屋市场的预测，但是他的报告被销售人员的声音所淹没，这些销售人员认为如果他们在那个基础上为信用风险定价，他们将会被踢出这个商业圈。,Question 10,What are the three levers that policymakers can resort to in order to better regulate a property market? The first lever is the institutional framework
29、controlled by the government things like tax breaks, housing subsidies, land supply and the laws on recourse in the event of default. The second lever is the system of mortgage financing. The third lever is the idea of macroprudential regulation which is already common in some parts of the world.,Se
30、ntence Translation,The first is the institutional framework that is controlled by governments things like tax breaks, housing subsidies, land supply and the laws on recourse in the event of default.,recourse rik:s,n. something or someone turned to for assistance or security 追索权; 依赖,Sentence Translat
31、ion,The first is the institutional framework that is controlled by governments things like tax breaks, housing subsidies, land supply and the laws on recourse in the event of default. 第一种杠杆是由政府控制的体制框架 像税收减免、住房津贴、土地供应和有关违约追诉的法律等等。,Questions 11,What are the characteristics of the Danish system? It fea
32、tures specialized mortgage lenders that observe strict loan-to-value limits.It protects borrowers from interest-rate risk by offering long-term fixed-rate mortgages.It has an implicit government guarantee.,loan-to-value,n. the ratio between the sum of money lent in a mortgage agreement and the lende
33、rs valuation of the property involved 房产信贷价值比率,fixed-rate mortgage,A fixed-rate mortgage (FRM), often referred to as a “vanilla wafer“ mortgage loan, is a fully amortizing mortgage loan where the interest rate on the note remains the same through the term of the loan, as opposed to loans where the i
34、nterest rate may adjust or “float“. As a result, payment amounts and the duration of the loan are fixed and the person who is responsible for paying back the loan benefits from a consistent, single payment and the stuff to plan a budget based on this fixed cost. 固定利率抵押贷款,implicit,adj. being without
35、doubt or reserve 无保留的；绝对的,Questions 11,What are the characteristics of the Danish system? It features specialized mortgage lenders that observe strict loan-to-value limits. 这种模式的特点在于由专业从事抵押贷款业务的银行对放贷比率进行严格控制。 It protects borrowers from interest-rate risk by offering long-term fixed-rate mortgages. 它
36、通过提供长期固定利率按揭来保护借方不受利率风险的影响。 It has an implicit government guarantee. 它拥有政府对银行做出的完全担保。,Question 12,What might be the consequences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? It disenfranchises some - first-time buyers and the self-employed tend to suffer most.,disenfranchise ,disinfrntaiz
37、,v. deprive of voting rights or other rights that most other people have剥夺 (某人群的) 权利,Question 12,What might be the consequences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? It disenfranchises some - first-time buyers and the self-employed tend to suffer most. It deprives first-time buyers
38、 and the self-employed of their right to raise a bank loan. 对人们能借多少进行生硬的限制不仅剥夺了那些首次购买者的公民权利, 也使得那些个体劳动者受到最大伤害 。,Question 12,What might be the consequences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? It risks encouraging them to find a way around the rules by topping up their borrowing wi
39、th more expensive, unsecured financing. 对人们能借多少进行生硬的限制会促使他们绕过规则，通过更高成本和不安全的融资方法来提高他们借款额度。,Question 12,What might be the consequences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? Some lenders also fret that if underwriting becomes too prescriptive, borrowers are relieved of taking responsi
40、bility for their own actions.,fret,v. worry unnecessarily or excessively烦恼；焦急,prescriptive,adj. pertaining to giving directives or rules 指令性的; 规定性的,Question 12,What might be the consequences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? Some lenders also fret that if underwriting becomes t
41、oo prescriptive, borrowers are relieved of taking responsibility for their own actions. It is also worried by some lenders that if banks impose too strict rules to guarantee the payment of loans, the borrowers would not bear responsibility for their own actions.,Question 12,What might be the consequ
42、ences of imposing rigid limits on how much people can borrow? It deprives first-time buyers and the self-employed of their right to raise a bank loan. As a consequence, they are encouraged to seek more expensive and unsecured method of financing. Some lenders also fret that if underwriting becomes t
43、oo prescriptive, borrowers are relieved of taking responsibility for their own actions.,Question 13,Why is macroprudential regulation hard to implement?,macroprudential regulation,The term characterizes the approach to financial regulation aimed to mitigate the risk of the financial system as a whol
44、e.宏观审慎监管,Question 13,Why is macroprudential regulation hard to implement? First it is difficult to spot the bubbles before they burst. And as soon as the property booms get going, they are hard to calm down. Also this kind of regulation might be more suitable for emerging markets than developed mark
45、ets.,Question 14,Why do regulators have to resist pressures when the property boom is under way? Thanks to transaction taxes, property bubbles are helpful to exchequers and the jobs market when they first get going.,exchequer ikstek; eks-,n. the funds of a government or institution or individual 国库;
46、 财政部,Question 14,Why do regulators have to resist pressures when the property boom is under way? Thanks to transaction taxes, property bubbles are helpful to exchequers and the jobs market when they first get going. 由于交易税的功劳，地产泡沫在产生初期对国库和求职市场非常有利。,Question 15,What is the current situation in America
47、 after the property crisis? The worst effects are probably over in America. The most affected banks are smaller lenders and the government is willing to provide support to residential markets. The dropping housing price might slow down the economic recovery.,Question 16,What is the current situation
48、 in Europe after the property crisis? The long-term effects might linger for years in Europe. Housing price continues to fall; Certain European banks and governments ability to cope with losses are really doubtful; The risk of interest-rate rises gradually occurs.,Text A Between a Rock and a Living
49、Space,Paraphrasing,Rewriting,Disentangling the various causes of the property bubble is extremely difficult,.,disentangle,If you disentangle a complicated or confused situation, you make it easier to understand or manage to understand it, by clearly recognizing each separate element. 理解(复杂混乱的状况) Its
50、 impossible to disentangle the myth from reality. 分清神话和现实是不可能的。,Rewriting,Disentangling the various causes of the property bubble is extremely difficult,.It is not easy to find out the reasons for the property bubble,Rewriting,. or risks encouraging them to find a way around the rules by topping up their borrowing with more expensive, unsecured financing. or increases the risks for those resorting to a more expensive, unsecured way of financing in order to bypass the regulation.,
