1、1,A,A,2013,1,21,7.6%,6.8%,300,010-60838226,4.5%,3.3%,4.6%,,S1010510120004,20122013,0755-S1010510120038,9.4%,A,5.7%,9.7%,021-68768323,1+6,1,S1010512050004010-S1010511090003,IPO,1,2,10,010-S1010512060002,QFII,RQFII,010-,2012,2013,1.A2.A,2013,20121210. 2012-12-10,. 2012-12-12,3.A4.A,20121217. 2012-12-1
2、7201211224,. 2012-12-24,5.A6.A,2013,1,. 2012-12-3120130107,2013. 2013-01-07,7.A,20130114. 2013-01-14,1,3,4,5,6,9,10,11,13,14,15,16,17,19,2,A. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 15,1/14-1/18 5,.1,2 A,1/14-1/181/14-1/18,.1.1.1,1/14-1/18,.2,1/14-1/18,.2,78 GDP12,GDP500,.3.3.3.3.5.5.6.6.6.6.6,1820 1,12,.6.7.7,2122,1/14-1/1
3、81/14-1/18,.8.8,23,1/14-1/18,.8,24,1/14-1/18,.8,25,30,31,2 A,3,4,5,A.9,26,500,300,. 11,2728,AH,H,. 12. 12,29,300,. 12,. 12. 13,1,2013,1,18,. 2,. 3.10.13.15,01/14,01/15,01/16,01/17,01/18,A,A,12,QFII,RQFII,23001+6,7.6%,6.8%,300,4.5%,3.3%,4.6%,1,1/14-1/18 5,2,A,1/14-1/18,2340,9.0%,232023002280,8.0%7.0%
4、6.0%,6.87%,7.63%,22602240222022002180,MM/DD,5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%,4.52%,3.30%,4.60%,0.0%300,Wind,Wind,3,44%,1/14-1/183.3%,420-2-4,-1.6,-0.9-2.0,-2.7,1.0-2.2,0.5-1.6,1.7-1.0,2.3-0.4,3%3%2%2%1%1%0%,1.2%,0.9% 1.0%0.5%,1.0%,1.5%,2.0%1.9%0.7%,-6,-4.8,-1%-1%,-0.2%,-0.4%,-8,-10,-8.4,1Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,10Y,15Y,20Y,
5、Wind,Wind,DAXCOMEXNYBOT1:901,A,5,Wind,1/14-1/18,6,Wind,1/14-1/18,0,2012,GDP7.5%7.8% 12,519322,GDP,7.9%,7.8%2.0%10.3%,10.2%,7.7%,12,1,2013,1,18,2012/9,2012/10,2012/11,2012/12,2012/12,GDP,%,7.4,7.9,7.8,%,9.214.220.52759.82.4,9.614.520.732111.62.3,10.114.920.71962.90.0,10.315.220.631614.16.0,10.215.120
6、.72005.03.5,CPIPPIM1M2,%,1.9-3.67.314.86232,1.7-2.86.114.15052,2.0-2.25.513.95229,2.5-1.96.513.84543,2.3-1.85.914.05500,Bloomberg2,10Q4,11Q1,11Q2,11Q3,11Q4,12Q1,12Q2,12Q3,06Q4,07Q2,07Q4,08Q2,08Q4,09Q2,09Q4,10Q2,10Q4,11Q2,11Q4,12Q2,12Q4,12Q4,11/01,11/03,11/05,11/07,11/09,11/11,12/01,12/03,12/05,12/07
7、,12/09,12/11,A,1512,7,GDP,YY/QQ,%,54,1512,8,GDP,%,9,3,96,630,GDPGDP,( ),210,303,YY/QQ,CEIC1212,1.53%,CEIC,15.2%,9,%,10,%,2.01.61.20.80.40.0,2012/102012/112012/12,1614121086,YY/MM,210123,CEIC,Bloomberg,1,18,PMI,20122013,2012,2013,2,A,9.4%,A,5.7%,9.7%,A,2011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q2,29.8%25.8%2
8、6.8%16.5%10.2%6.3%,15.7%15.0%14.7%14.5%14.4%14.2%,20.7%15.2%7.5%-18.2%-14.6%-17.2%,29.6%31.9%20.0%8.2%14.8%15.5%,26.8%23.2%12.3%-10.3%0.6%-1.3%,3,AA,2012Q32012Q4(F)2013Q1(F)2013Q2(F)2013Q3(F)2013Q4(F)20112012F(F)2013F(F),4.8%8.3%9.4%9.7%10.7%10.8%24.6%7.3%10.2%,14.3%16.1%15.9%15.7%16.3%16.2%15.0%14.
9、7%16.0%,-17.7%2.0%8.9%9.6%14.4%4.8%5.0%-12.1%9.4%,13.1%4.1%7.5%7.9%9.0%17.5%22.6%12.3%10.0%,-2.0%2.8%8.1%8.7%11.3%11.0%12.1%0.0%9.7%,Wind,1,3,18,1+6,18,1+6,3.72010,2,33.5,20084,1,2012,53%,56.9,2012,213,2012,28.3,2011,9.8,180%50020124,1,A,11,12,500,CEIC,21,22,CEIC,10A111,2700,12,2,80009000,0,wind,12,
10、5,2009-01,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,2009-04,2009-07,2009-10,2010-01,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,2010-04,2010-07,2010-10,2011-01,2011-04,2011-07,2011-10,201301,2012-01,2012-04,2012-07,2012-10,2013-01,10-01,10-04,10-07,10-10,11-01,11-03,11-05,11-07,11-01,11-04,11-07,11-10
11、,12-01,12-04,11-09,11-11,12-01,12-03,12-05,12-07,12-07,12-10,13-01,12-09,12-11,13-01,1,0,A,13,14,80006000400020000-2000-4000-6000,11- 11- 11- 11- 12- 12- 12- 12- 13-,1098765432,%,:1:7:14,mm-dd,01 04 07 10 01 04 07 10 01,01-04 03-04,05-04 07-04,09-04,11-04 01-04,15,Wind1,1216,Wind,300200100010020017,
12、Wind,(,)25002400230022002100200019001800,100500-5018,Wind,EPFR_China12,60%50%40%30%20%10%0%,/,35003000250020001500,806040200,:,Wind,Wind,1,2,10,6,1/4,1/11,1/18,1/25,2/1,2/8,2/15,2/22,3/1,3/8,3/15,3/22,01,02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,12,01,02,03,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,12,13,13,13,A12,QFII,
13、RQFII,A,910,RQFII,A670,3%800,2700,12,QFII,374.43,QFII RQFII,QFII,RQFII,3000,QFII,RQFII,3,191000800600400200,2015105,20,1,2,mm dd,0,Wind,0,Wind,298%7,17.12%,3.18%,A,219%,1/14-1/18,227.0%,1/14-1/18,8%7%6%5%,6.0%5.0%4.0%,4.66% 4.57%,5.31%,5.83%,5.50%,3.79%,4.80%,5.85%,4%3%2%1%0%,Wind,A,3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%
14、,Wind,3D,3D,30%PM2.5,237.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%,1/14-1/18,2430% 27.77%25%20%15%,15.70%14.58%4.52%,1/14-1/18,3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%2013,Wind1,10%5%0%,Wind,2012,4.08%3.94%3.66%3.47%,2012,20132012,1,1,12,4,1,3008,A25,50%40%,1,1949,12,30%20%10%0%10%20%30%WindIT852,10,6,12,41,12,8,70,8,6,54,70,1.2%,57,43,12,12,-1.4%,1
15、2.4%,1112,2013,1-12CCIndex328 CCIndex527 CCIndex2299,1,A1#,5%,42.5,13%,19,12,10%,2.2,5%20133000-500010%,11,BPI,BCTI,BCI BDI,12%,10002012,3,2012,2013,12,12,-73.80%-22.59%-19.71%23.60%-181.96%-38.34%22.75%-56.63%-3.79%-33.57%-13.79%10.37%-21.62%-29.25%39.92%,-59.13%-23.50%-25.76%44.10%-349.01%-30.95%1
16、7.21%-62.61%-4.64%-46.76%13.63%42.63%-38.91%-29.25%5.65%,-42.16%3.66%0.63%80.92%-267.57%-5.61%42.43%-28.04%27.03%-23.69%55.62%73.73%-13.81%-14.12%36.42%,2.71%2.80%8.08%8.60%3.38%36.06%8.21%20.40%47.86%23.13%18.04%8.84%8.50%31.44%15.52%,-8.20%,-14.20%,11.86%,18.26%,10,10,-,9,A,12,12,-14.42%-9.92%70.7
17、3%-14.65%,-26.49%-15.58%58.74%-15.70%,-0.26%8.44%71.75%18.31%,50.34%35.73%45.65%37.04%,30.43%17.26%-0.86%,20.00%32.80%-0.83%,30.00%48.59%27.99%,0.37%10.40%1.54%,7.8%,10,11,69.71%-11.89%10.75%20.17%-107.81%,-2.66%-18.79%-1.26%25.22%-85.38%,23.21%11.52%28.73%44.36%-84.27%,47.54%28.15%40.45%13.77%20.44
18、%,12,Wind,12,12,500300500,500,500,2610.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%,500,300,500,300,Wind96.68,Bloomberg96.17,H,GICS,bloombergAH,A,H11,A,27,AH,28,H,21.81.61.41.210.80.60.40.202943.532.521.510.50,Wind,A/H,300,1.210.80.60.40.20,Wind,A/H2007,Wind,2007,TTMPE,303000020000100000-10000-20000-30000-40000Wind1
19、2,A,28.7%2013,30,3.9%,0.5,22,2013,1,18,25,300,1031403020100,T-15,T,T-10,T,T-5,T,T,T,T+5,-10-20,Wind,14,T+5,2013-01-18,4201320132013,2013,2 3,2012,20132013,2,1800,2013201313,1,A2013(2013-2015)2013,20132013201320132013,7,2013,5%,/,2013201320132013201320132013,123,22,3.15,2013,20132013220122013,2013201
20、3,1 21 2,28%,Android,2013,2013Wind14,A120135,2013,1,24,PMI,1Wind15,-,“,”,Analyst CertificationiiiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the pe
21、rsonal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii)no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.“”,/,(,),(1),(2)/20131,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6300,63
22、00,300300300300300,-10% 5%10%10%-10% 10%10%,48,1568,8,1,100125,22,200122,518048,26,Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S.This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities RegulatoryCommissi
23、on. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant toRule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC,no-action letters thereunder.,Z20374000,1934“,”,15a-6(a) (2),15a-6,
