1、A P R IL 13 TH 1 9 TH 2 01 9King Bibi k eeps his c ro w nH o w A maz on u ses AIDonald Trump , w restler-in-c hiefSpecial r epor t : pri v ate educ ation s boomC e n tra l b a n k s in th e a g e o f p o p u lismIn ter fer en c e D a y每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公
2、开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 A rc e au , L h eu re d e l a l u n e T im e f lie s t o t h e m o o n .T IM E , A H E R M S O B JE C T. T he E conomist April 13th 2 01 9 5C ontent s continues o v er leaf1C ontent sT he w or ld this w eek8 A round-up of politicaland business n
3、ewsL eader s11 C entr al banksInterferenc e Day12 Isr ael s electionBibi the conjuror12 Elections in IndonesiaThe wrong w ay to win13 Priv ate educationA class apart14 Cross-border paymentsThe migr ants migr aineL etter s18 On N AT O , museums ,R w anda, happinessBriefing21 Indonesia s electionA ref
4、ormer reduc edSpecial repor t :P ri v ate educationA class apartAfter page 44Bri tain25 The Bre xit summit26 R egulating the internet28 China and the LSE29 The far right on the march29 C ouncil housing scomeback30 Islam in BirminghamEu ro p e31 Matteo Salvini snationalist allianc e32 Expropriation i
5、n German y34 Macron s gre at debate ends34 Montenegro s monarch35 Bre xit and Europe seconom y36 Charlemagne The new“protective Europe”T he Americas37 The future of La v a Jato38 Baseball diplomacy40 B ello Lenn Moreno snew economic policyMiddle E ast his termends on November 1st.Julian Assange , a
6、founder ofW ikiLe aks , w as arrested byBritish polic e in the Ecua-dore an embassy in London.Ecuador had gr anted Mr As-sange refuge in 20 12 after hehad jumped bail while facingrape allegations . His relation-ship with his hosts soured aftera change of government inEcuador , where a leftist presi-
7、dent w as replac ed by a moremoder ate one . Mr Assange hassaid he fe ars e xtr adition to theU nited States , where W iki-Le aks is not popular , ha vingpublished re ams of le ak edAmerican military secrets .Turk ey s ruling partydemanded a fresh vote inIstanbul, where it narrowlylost the mayor alt
8、y in electionson March 31st.Italy s deputy prime minister ,Matteo Salvini, announc ed theformation of a new nationalistgroup within the Europe anP arliament, to be called theEurope an Allianc e for P eopleand Nations . However , none ofthe party le aders he hopedwould attend from other coun-tries tu
9、rned up .T hr o w ing a curv eballThe T rump administr ationcanc elled a four-month-oldagreement under which Cubanbaseball players could joinMajor Le ague te ams in Americawithout defecting from theircountry . The administr ationsaid the agreement wouldencour age human tr ackingand help enrich Cuba
10、scommunist government.Jair B olsonaro , Br azil s presi-dent, sack ed the educationminister , Ricardo V lez, whoshared his socially conserv a-tive views . Mr V lez had court-ed controversy by instructingschools to film classes singingthe national anthem andrepe ating Mr B olsonaro scampaign slogan.
11、His replac e-ment, A br aham W eintr aub , aneconomist, has said that cr ackcocaine w as introduc ed toBr azil deliber ately by the left.F utur e back w ar dThanathorn Juangroongruang-kit, the le ader of the FutureF orw ard party , w as chargedwith sedition in relation to aprotest against Thailand s
12、military junta in 20 15. It is oneof sever al repressive steps thathas marred the country s sup-posed return to democr acyafter an election last month.Kassym Jomart T okayev ,Kazakhstan s interim presi-dent following the suddenresignation of NursultanNazarbayev after three decadesin power , called a
13、 snap electionfor June 9th. South K ore a s constitutionalcourt ruled that the govern-ment must end the country sban on abortion, in plac e sinc e195 3, before the end of 2020.Doctors can currently be im-prisoned if they perform theproc edure . However , tens ofthousands of abortions arecarried out
14、e ach ye ar .V oting began in India s seven-stage election. The final phasewill tak e plac e on May 19th andthe results for all seven stageswill be announc ed on May23rd. P olls suggest the rulingBhar atiy a Janata P arty willremain the biggest party .A court in Hong K ong foundnine people guilty of
15、 “publicnuisanc e” charges relating totheir le ading roles in theU mbrella Movement of 20 14,which in volved weeks of sit-ins and demonstr ations inbusy commercial districts insupport of democr atic reform.Among the defendants werethree founders of a groupin volved in the unrest. Immigr ation cr ack
16、 do w nKirstjen Nielsen resigned asthe secretary of America sDepartment of HomelandSecurity . Donald T rump istrying to replac e the depart-ment s top ocials with peo-ple who will try harder to k eepMe xicans out of the U nitedStates . Mr T rump has thre at-ened to close the border entire-ly , despi
17、te advic e that thiswould cause economic chaos .Randolph Alles , the he ad ofAmerica s Secret Servic e , isquitting . He had reportedlybeen ask ed to go before therec ent security bre ach at MrT rump s priv ate club, in volvinga Chinese woman with sever althumb drives .Amnesty International s annu-a
18、l report on the de ath penaltyrecorded a drop of ne arly athird in known e x ecutionsworldwide last ye ar . Therewere 690 in 20 18, down from1,06 1 in 20 15. The number ofde ath sentenc es passed bycourts also declined slightly ,though in the Middle East andnorth Africa de ath sentenc esne arly doub
19、led to 1,170. Theregion is responsible for two-thirds of the world s knowne x ecutions . (China is alsothought to e x ecute thousandsof people every ye ar , but k eepsits figures secret.) Of the coun-tries that rele ase figures , Ir an isby far the most a vid e x ecution-er , putting 409 people to d
20、e athe ach ye ar on a ver age for thepast decade . Le s s d e adl ySour ce: Amnesty Inter nationalGlobal k nown e x ec utions04008001,2001,6002009 11 13 15 18Ir an Other sAsset ManagementWealth Management Asset ServicesGeneva Lausanne Zurich Basel Luxembourg LondonAmsterdam Brussels Paris S tuttgart
21、 Frankfurt MunichM ad rid Barcelona T urin Milan Verona Rome T el Aviv DubaiNassau Montreal Hong Kong Singapore Taipei Osaka Tokyogroup.pictetThis advertisement has been approved for issue by Pictet Asset Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority .The value of a
22、n investment can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested.10 T he E conomist April 13th 2 01 9T he w or ld this w eek BusinessSaudi Ar amco raised $12bnfrom its first bond sale oninternational mark ets . Fivedierent bonds were reported-ly sold in an oer that w a
23、she a vily oversubscribed, within vestors submitting $100bn inorders . Saudi s state oil firmwill put the proc eeds tow ardsits $69bn acquisition of thekingdom s majority stak e insabic , a chemical compan y, ade al orchestr ated by the gov-ernment. The bond sale wentsome w ay to restoring in-vestor
24、s confidenc e in SaudiAr abia following the murder ofJamal Khashoggi, a journalist,and an opaque cr ack down ontop ocials and businessmen.Opening up a ne w fr ontAmerica r atcheted up its tr adedispute with the Europe anU nion, w arning that it w aspreparing a list of taris on$11bn-worth of eu goods
25、 inretaliation for subsidies givento Airbus , which the W orldT rade Organisation has ruledare illegal. The wt o is yet todecide on the amount of taristhat America can impose onthe eu in light of that ruling,but Brussels says $ 11bn is ane xagger ation. It is dr awing upits own catalogue of American
26、products that it will levy penal-ties on if W ashington goesahe ad with its thre at. Airbus recommended R enObermann to shareholders asits ne xt chairman. Mr Ober-mann is a non-e x ecutive direc-tor on the aerospac e compan y sboard and used to run Deut-sche T elek om. GuillaumeF aury started his jo
27、b as chiefe x ecutive at Airbus this week,suc c eeding T om Enders . B oeing s share pric e fell sharp-ly , after it tempor arily reduc edproduction of its 737 aircr aft bya fifth following two fatalcr ashes in volving the 737 max8. B oeing said it w anted tofocus resourc es on updatingthe softw are
28、 for the 737 “toprevent ac cidents lik e thesefrom ever happening again” . The imf forecast global eco-nomic growth of 3.3% thisye ar , down from the 3. 7% it hadprojected back in October . Thefund highlighted the risks of ano-de al Bre xit, estimating thatthe resulting border disruptionwould slic e
29、 1.4% o British gdpin the first ye ar and 0.2% fromthe eu s .Br e x it bonus, or bust?Britain s econom y grew by0.3% in the three monthsending F ebruary comparedwith the previous threemonths . That w as a bit fasterthan mark ets had e xpected.Manufacturing output inF ebruary grew to its highestlevel
30、 sinc e April 2008, prob-ably because firms were ge ar-ing up ahe ad of the originalBre xit de adline of March 29th. The thre at of protectionismw as one factor cited by theEurope an C entr al Bank as itreiter ated its pledge not toraise interest r ates in the eurozone until “ at le ast” the end of2
31、0 19 and to continue its mone-tary-stimulus progr amme . Theimf has downgr aded its fore-cast for growth in the eurozone this ye ar to 1.3%. Debenhams , a British depart-ment-store chain, entered abankruptcy plan under whichthe business w as tak en over bycreditors , wiping out share-holders holding
32、s . That in-cludes Sports Direct, whichhad held a 30% stak e.Pinterest , one of a number oftech firms launching note-worth y stockmark et flotationsthis ye ar , provided an initialpric e r ange of between $ 15 and$17 a share for its ipo . Thatcould v alue the social-mediasite at somewhere around$11.
33、3bn, less than the $ 12bn itw as reck oned to be worth byin vestors in 2 017. Uber also prepared its prospec-tus , ahe ad of its long -aw aitedipo . The ride-hailing firm willha ve noted Lyft s flotation.Two weeks after its mark etdebut, L yft s share pric e fell byalmost 11% in a day , to end up16%
34、 below the ipo pric e of $72.In a surprise turn of events , thejudge he aring the trial of JohnV arley , a former chief e x ecutiveof Barclays , and three otherformer senior e x ecutives at thebank, discharged the jury . Themen fac ed allegations of fr audrelating to a de al with Qatariin vestors to
35、 shore up the bankin 2008, which they all den y. Standard Chartered agreed topay more than $ 1bn to settleallegations with American andBritish regulators that it violat-ed sanctions on Ir an and othercountries . It is one of the big-gest fines to date levied on abank for busting sanctions . Senior R
36、 epublicans airedmisgivings about DonaldT rump s desire to give HermanCain a se at on the board of theF eder al R eserve . Mr T rump didnot formally nominate MrCain, a former R epublicanpresidential hopeful and pizzamagnate , nor has he ociallyproposed Stephen Moore , alow-tax crusader . But bothpot
37、ential choic es raise ques-tions about whether Mr T rumpw ants to politicise the F ed. Spaced outMr T rump , me an while ,incre ased the pressure on theF ed to cut interest r ates , say-ing its monetary-tighteningpolicies had “re ally slowed”American growth. P ursuing apath of e asier monetary polic
38、ywould result in “ a rock et ship”econom y, said Mr T rump .L eader s 11Critics of e c ono mics lik e to say that its abstr act theories lackre al-world pay-os . There is a glaring counter-e xample: theglobal rise of c entr al-bank independenc e in the past 25 ye ars . Inthe 1970s it w as normal for
39、 politicians to manipulate interestrates to boost their own popularity . That led to a plague of infla-tion. And so rich countries and man y poorer ones shifted to asystem in which politicians set a broad goalste ady pric esandleft independent c entr al bank ers to re alise it. In a single gener a-t
40、ion billions of people around the world ha ve grown used to lowand stable inflation and to the ide a that the interest r ates on theirbank deposits and mortgages are under control.Today this suc c ess is thre atened by a confluenc e of populism,nationalism and economic forc es that are making moneta
41、rypolicy political again. President Donald T rump has demandedthat interest r ates should be slashed, speculated about firing theboss of the F eder al R eserve and said he will nominate StephenMoore and Herman Cain, two unqualified cronies , to its board.Bre xiteers rubbish the competenc e and motiv
42、es of the Bank ofEngland, while in Turk ey President R ec ep T ayyip Erdogan hasbeen in a tug -of-w ar with the c entr al bank. India s governmenthas replac ed a capable c entr al-bank chief with a pliant insiderwho has cut r ates ahe ad of an election. And as we report thisweek, man y top jobs at t
43、he Europe an C entr al Bank ( ec b ), includ-ing the presidency , are up for gr abs , and somecould become part of a wider political struggleover who runs Europe s institutions (see Fi-nanc e section). There is a genuine need for re-flection on c entr al banks objectives and tools .But dangerous for
44、c es are afoot that could ha vealarming consequenc es for economic stability .The problem of politicisation last becameacute in the 1970s . After the post-w ar BrettonW oods currency system collapsed, c entr al banks failed to tameracing inflation because politicians , who pulled the strings ,were r
45、eluctant to be ar the short-term cost of higher unemploy-ment. Two decades of runaw ay pric es and crises led to a new or-thodo xy that c entr al banks should be given oper ational autono-m y to pursue an inflation target. In the euro zone , Japan andBritain c entr al banks became legally independen
46、t in the 1990s .In America the White House refr ained from even publicly dis-cussing F ed policy (see F ree e x change). This consensus survivedthe cr ash of 2007-08 and is one re ason wh y global inflation hasbeen only 4% a ye ar on a ver age over the past two decades .The fr aying of c entr al ban
47、ks independenc e has sever alcauses . One is populism. Le aders lik e Mr T rump combine thepolitician s desire for low interest r ates with a reckless urge toundermine institutions . Another is the scope of c entr al banksactivities , which e xpanded after the financial crisis . Most nowhold huge po
48、rtfolios of government bonds while , at the sametime policing the financial industry . And the record of c entr albanks is far from perfect. B ecause they ha ve probably been toohawkish (despite their uncon ventional policies) the recoveryfrom the crisis has been slow , undermining voters faith in t
49、hetechnocr ats whose loy alty is supposedly to the public interest.All this mak es it e asier to view them as political. Me an while , thememory of the crises that led to independenc e has faded.Pressure is manifesting itself in dierent w ays in dierentplac es . Mr T rump has launched an attack on the F ed. Althoughhis legal authority to sack Jerome P owell, its chairman and aT rump appointee , is not cle ar , if he wins re-election in 2020 hewill be able to nominate a new F ed chairman and two more go-vernors . In Europe a fl
