1、西北内陆区农业生态系统资产负债研究以甘肃省凉州区为例? 2009?5? ?17? ?3? Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, May 2009, 17(3): 593?598 DOI: 101. 3724/SP.J.1011.2009.00593 * ?以甘肃省凉州区为例 1,21*11颉 鹏 蔺海明 黄高宝 柴 强 (1. ? ? 730070; 2. ? ? 730030) ? ? 本文以甘肃省凉州区为例, 分析了其绿洲农业区 19492005年生态系统可持续发展能力的资产负债动态变化, 探究西北内陆区绿洲农业生态系统可持续发展能力, 预测其可持续发展程
2、度及未来趋势。结果表明: 甘肃省凉州区农业生态系统的资产在 19491970年为急速下降阶段, 由 14.14下降至 4.93, 下降 65.13%; 1970年以后为缓慢增长阶段, 至 2005年增长到33.33。负债自 1949年以来, 一直呈负增长趋势, 由?0.91 增长至?56.67, 负增长了 61.27倍。净资产也呈明显的先降后升趋势, 19491970 年, 以环境资产占优势, 表现为资产盈余, 且呈递减趋势, 至 20世纪 70年代初期, 净资产接近于 0; 1970年以后 , 以负债量占优势, 表现为资产赤字, 且呈递增趋势, 尤其在 20世纪 80年代后期以后, 几乎呈直
3、线上升, 但自 2000年以后, 负债量有所减少。2005 年凉州区农业生态系统可持续发展能力资产负债分布表的结果表明, 生存、发展、环境、社会和智力 5大支持系统的共 30项源指标中有 10项列入 “资产”栏目, 17 项列入“负债”栏目, 凉州区净资产为?23.34。本研究结果表明, 凉州区农业生态系统处于不可持续状态, 但其生态环境的自然资产库存量已经开始增加 , 人类再次向可持续发展方向迈进。 ? 西北内陆区 绿洲农业生态系统 资产负债 资产盈余/赤字 可持续发展 甘肃凉州 ?: F062.2; Q141 ?: A ?: 1671-3990(2009)03-0593-06 Analys
4、is of assets and debts of agro-ecosystems in northwest China A case study of the oasis agro-ecosystem of Liangzhou District, Gansu Province 1,2111XIE Peng, LIN Hai-Ming, HUANG Gao-Bao, CHAI Qiang (1. College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China; 2. Research Office of Gan
5、su Provincial Government, Lanzhou 730030, China) Abstract The dynamics and magnitude of assets and debts of oasis agro-ecosystems in Liangzhou District, Gansu Province were analyzed for the period of 19492005. The analysis explored sustainable development capacity and predicted future oasis agro- ec
6、osystem development in Northwest China. The results show a rapid decline in the environmental assets of the agro-ecosystem from 1949 to 1970, dropping on the average from 14.14 to 4.93, which is 65.13% reduction. There is also a slow increment to 33.33 from 1970 to 2005. A steady negative growth exi
7、sts in environmental debt from ?0.91 to ?56.67, increasing 62.27 times from 1949 to 2005. Net environmental assets exhibit a decreasing/increasing trend for the period under study. Environmental assets are strategic, gradu-ally driving weakening asset surplus from 1949 to 1970, and dropping to zero
8、in the 1970. Since 1970, debts have become dominant in the oasis agro-ecosystem, leading to asset deficit that has gradually increased, especially in the late 1980s. However, the situation begins to improve after 2000. The asset/debt table in 2005 shows that among 30 source indexes of livelihood, de
9、velopment, environ-ment, society and intelligence supporting systems of sustainable development ability, 10 are in the asset column, 17 in the debt col-umn, with a net asset of ?23.34 for Liangzhou agro-ecosystem. The study shows that economic development in Liangzhou District is far from sustainabl
10、e, however, environmental asset storage of the agro-ecosystem is lately improving. This implies that economic development in the region is transforming from a non-sustainable to a sustainable mode. Key words Northwest China, Oasis agro-ecosystem, Asset and debt, Asset surplus and deficit, Sustainabl
11、e development, Liangzhou District of Gansu Province * ?o?p(2007BAD89B17)? * ?:?(1953), ?, ?, ?, ?b?(1973), ?, ?, ?b?: 2008-04-25 ?: 2008-12-15 594 ? 2009 ?17? (Received April 25, 2008; accepted Dec. 15, 2008) 20?(W. Leontief, 1973?, ?1?5?)?“?”, ?“?”a“?”?“?”?3?: ?, ?“5?”(?a?, ?, ?a?a?)?b?b?, “?”?, ?,
12、 ?, ?, ?, ?a?o?p?, ?, ?o?pb?a?b?5?, ?“?”?, ?, ?, ?a?, ?, ?, ?o?p(?)?o?p?, ?a?(?)b?b?“?”?,? ?, ?b ?u?v(1990j1998)a?(L. AD = Nad= N (Aa/n)?(8Db/n)?100% (1) iiiiBrown)?u?v?“?, AD?; ad?5?”(1996)a?u?v?; A?D?ii(1990j1998)?“?”?; Aa?Db?iiii4,6?12?, ?b?; N?, n?1996?a?; i?, ?n(n =1, ?(W. Harres)?(L. Brown)?2,
13、 l, n)b ?“?”(Quality of devel-?10?(1a2ala10), ?13,14opment)?, ?1a0.9a0.8ala0.1, ?a?; ?i?b?10?(?10a?9ala?1), ?0.1a0.2a?, ?b 0.3ala1.0, ?b?b?i?10?i?a?a?a?10?, ?; ?10?10?, ?0b?a?b?, ?ii?, ?N?, ?; ?n?i?a?b?, ?N?n?i?, ?, ?5?b?, ?b ?, ?1949j2005?1.2 ? ?, ?, ?, ?15,16?, ?1949j2005?b ?, ? 1 研究方法 ?a?(?1), ?o
14、? 1.1 ? ? “?-?-?”?pb ?3? ? ?: ? 595 表 1 19492005 年凉州区生态系统资产与负债分析表 ?, ?, ?; Tab.1 Assets and debts of the agro-ecosystem in Liangzhou ?70?, ?, ?District in 19492005 ?, ?, ? ? ? ? Year Asset Debt Net ecological asset ?1949 14.14 ?0.91 13.23 ?, ?b?1955 13.62 ?1.43 12.19 ?, ?2000?, 1960 7.41 ?2.70 4.71
15、?1965 6.71 ?3.54 3.17 ?, ?, ?1970 4.93 ?4.110.82 ?b 1975 5.29 ?7.63 ?2.34 2.2 ? 1980 7.48 ?11.46 3.98 ?, ? 1985 11.76 ?15.53 ?3.77 ?(Asset deficit), ?1991 10.14 ?22.02 ?11.88 ?; ?, ?(Asset surplus), ?1995 17.26 ?39.72 ?22.46 ?b?2000 26.67 ?63.33 ?36.66 ?b?2005 33.33 ?56.67 ?23.34 ?(Net ecological as
16、set)? ?1949?bThe data of ?b every year are the relative values to that of 1949. ?(?1) ?, ?2 结果与分析 ?: ?, ?2.1 ? ?, ?b1949?(?)?13.23; ?, ?, ?(?1)?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?b ?, ?2005?(?)?23.34b2.1.1 ? ?20?1949j1970?70?b1949?, 20?, 1949?14.14; 1970?70?, ?(?)?0, ?4.93, ?65.13%b1970?b?; ?, ?, ?, ?b?, ?, ?a?,
17、?b?b?20?70?, ?2000?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ? ?b?, ?b ?, ?, ? 2.3 2005? ?, ? ?b?, ? ?b ?, ?a?b?2.1.2? ?1949?, ?b?, ?1949?0.91, ?2000?b?63.33, ?68.59b?, ?20?70?, ?, ?2005?; ?, ?(?2)b ?b20?70?, ? 596 ? 2009 ?17? 表 2 2005年凉州区农业生态系统可持续发展能力资产负债分布表 Tab.2 The assets and debts table of the agro-ecosystem in Lian
18、gzhou District in 2005 ? Asset ? Debt ? ? ? ? ? ? Support system Rank Index number Relative value Rank Index number Relative value 121 ? Live system2 22 323 4 24 1 16.67 525116.676 1 16.67 26 727 8 28 929116.67 10 1 16.67 30 ? Subtotal 233.34350.011 21 ? Developmen2 22116.67 t system 3 23 1 16.674 2
19、4 51 16.67 25 6 26116.67 7 27 1 16.678 116.6728 91 16.67 29 10 30116.67 ? Subtotal 3 50.01 5 83.35121 ? Environmen2 22 t system 323 4 24 1 16.67 5256 26 7116.6727116.678 28 929116.67 10 30 ? Subtotal 116.67350.011 21 1 16.67 ? Society sy2 22stem 3 23 4 116.67245 25 6 26116.677 27 8 28116.679 29 10 1
20、16.6730 ? Subtotal 2 33.34 3 50.01 121116.67 ? Intelligence2 1 16.67 22 system 323 4 24 1 16.67 525 6 26 727 8 1 16.67 28 1 16.67 929 10 30 ? Subtotal 233.34350.01 ? Total 10 33.33 17 56.67 ?3? ? ?: ? 597 ?: ?6?, ?2?, ?b?, ?o?p?, ?33.34, ?(33.34)?(50.01), ?16.67b?, ?, ?5?, ?; ?, ?, ?o?p?3?, ?b ?50.0
21、1, ?, ?, ?5?30?, ?1?5?, ?10?o?p?, ?b?, ?, ?(33.34)?33.33, ?(50.01), ?; ?17?o?p?, ?16.67, ?, ?56.67, ?b ?; ?23.34, ?: ?6?, ?3?, ?1?2005o?p?, ?50.01, ? ?; ?, ?o?p?b ?5?, ?83.35, ?, ?3?5?, ? ?b?, ?(50.10)?(83.35), ?33.34b?, ?, ?b ?: ?6?(?)?, ?1?o?p?, ?16.67, ?, ?5?, ?; ?o?p?3?, ?50.01, ? ?b?图 1 2005年凉州
22、区农业生态系统可持续发展 ?(16.67)?(50.01), ?33.34b?能力资产负债雷达图 Fig.1 Radar chart of assets and debts of the sustainable ?, ?developmental ability of agro-ecosystem of Liangzhou ?, ?District in 2005 ?, ?b 3 结论 ?: ?6?(?)?, ?1949j?2?o?p?, ?33.34, 1970?, ?14.14?4.93, ?, ?1?65.13%; 1970?, ?2005?5?; ?o?p?3?, ?33.33b?1949?50.01, ?, ?0.91?56.67, ?61.27b?b?, ?(33.34)? ?, 1949j1970?(50.01), ?16.67b?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?20?70?0; 1970?b ?, ?, ?, ?: 6?(?)?2?, ?20?80?, ?o?p?, ?33.34, ?, ?1?5?, ?2000?, ?, ?, ?,; ?, ?o?p?3?, ?50.01, ?b?, ?, ?1?5?, 598 ? 2009 ?17? ?b 参
