1、Hold,Deutsche BankMarkets Research,Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaGold,IndustrySA Gold Mining,Date25 September 2012Industry UpdateAnna Mulholland, CFA,Australian site visits previewShowcasing Western Australian assets: significant brownfields potentialAngloGold Ashanti (AngloGold) and Gold Fields hav
2、e been exploring andoperating in Western Australia for the past decade. Production fromAngloGolds current sole operation Sunrise Dam is 6% of the group total and,Research Analyst(+27) 11 775-Companies FeaturedAngloGold Ashanti (ANGJ.J),ZAR302.242011A 2012E 2013E,will be supplemented by Tropicana fro
3、m end 2013. For Gold Fields, production,DB EPS (ZAR),24.57 27.46 44.94,from its two mines St Ives and Agnew represents c.600kozpa or 18% of group2012e production. Mines in the area are amenable to lower-cost, open-pit,P/E (x)EV/EBITA (x),13.38.2,11.07.9,6.74.1,operations supplemented by mechanised u
4、nderground sections. Logisticschallenges can be significant however, with scarce water and power supplies.Future production growth will come mainly from brownfields expansions.,Gold Fields (GFIJ.J),ZAR107.00 Hold2011A 2012E 2013EDB EPS (ZAR) 9.72 10.71 19.28,Western Australian site visits will showc
5、ase Tropicana project and St Ives mineAngloGold and Gold Fields will showcase Western Australian operations to,P/E (x)EV/EBITA (x),12.26.5,10.05.8,5.63.1,analysts and investors over three days of presentations and site visits from 29September to 1 October. AngloGold will present on its Australian di
6、vision andhost the group at the Greenfield Tropicana project it owns as a 70/30 JV withIndependence Group. Gold Fields will take the group to see the St Ives mine.Extensive brownfields exploration from both companies is ongoingOur base case estimates and valuation for Tropicana are 334kozpa steady s
7、tateproduction, at a cash cost of A$480/oz, resulting in an NPV per share ofUS$2.23, 6.2% of our group estimated NPV per share (US$30.8). We see someupside risk to our cost assumption, but also the potential for increasedproduction and life of mine extension beyond our base case estimate of 2022,thr
8、ough near-mine brownfields expansions. For St Ives, we forecast 2011production of 465koz to decline to 437koz over time (11.8% of 2013e groupproduction) but Gold Fields continues its programme of near-mine drilling andexploration, which could extend St Ives production profile. We value St Ives atR5.
9、14 per share, 6.3% of total group NPV for Gold Fields (R95.4 per share).Retain Hold ratings on both AngloGold and Gold FieldsOur target prices are R310 for AngloGold and R105 for Gold Fields. We deriveour target prices from DCF models of each companys life of mine cash flows,applying an exit multipl
10、e of 1x. We apply a nominal WACC of 11.1% to cashflows driven by commodity prices until 2017e and a real WACC of 6.1%thereafter. Risks to our target prices include a higher-/lower-than-forecast goldprice and a stronger-/weaker-than-forecast ZAR/USD rate._Deutsche Securities (Pty) LtdAll prices are t
11、hose current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its rese
12、arch reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX
13、 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.,25 September 2012GoldSA Gold Mining,Model updated:07 August 2012,Fiscal year end 31-Dec,2009,2010,2011,2012E,2013E,2014E,Running the numbers,Financial Summary,Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaGoldAngloGold Ashanti,DB EPS (ZAR)Reported EPS (ZAR)DPS (ZAR)BVPS (ZAR)Weighted averag
14、e shares (m)Average market cap (ZARm),0.49-7.651.3059.7361110,082,2.581.711.4570.5372115,877,24.5727.803.80104.7386126,190,27.4628.154.00129.1387116,924,44.9444.944.40186.8387116,924,42.2842.284.80209.1422127,465,Reuters: ANGJ.J,Bloomberg: ANG SJ,Enterprise value (ZARm),109,976,126,582,132,711,131,9
15、76,123,585,128,023,Valuation Metrics,Hold,P/E (DB) (x)P/E (Reported) (x),621.9nm,121.0182.7,13.311.8,11.010.7,6.76.7,7.17.1,Price (21 Sep 12)Target Price52 Week rangeMarket Cap (m),ZAR 302.24ZAR 310.00ZAR 252.50 - 390.00ZARm 116,924USDm 14,185,P/BV (x)FCF Yield (%)Dividend Yield (%)EV/Sales (x)EV/EB
16、ITDA (x)EV/EBIT (x),5.139.90.43.639.9nm,4.645.50.53.314.433.4,3.289.11.22.86.18.2,2.344.11.32.35.67.9,1.6212.91.51.53.24.1,1.4513.91.61.53.54.7,Company Profile,Income Statement (ZARm),AngloGold Ashanti has 20 operations in four continents,and several exploration programmes in both theestablished and
17、 new gold-producing regions of the world.Price Performance440400360320280,Sales revenueGross profitEBITDADepreciationAmortisationEBITNet interest income(expense)Associates/affiliatesExceptionals/extraordinariesOther pre-tax income/(expense)Profit before taxIncome tax expenseMinoritiesOther post-tax
18、income/(expense)Net profitDB adjustments (including dilution)DB Net profit,30,74512,1402,7564,6150-1,859-7027850603-1,9581,1724170-2,762-603-3,365,38,83318,0228,8085,02203,786-8924670-3252,5692,0183810637325962,47,84924,69221,7335,587016,146-1,02953201,31216,4295,338342011,281-1,3129,969,57,86529,51
19、223,4396,647016,791-221248028916,8605,125112011,871-28911,582,80,63647,32538,1118,192029,919-1,4437990028,4769,967357018,952018,952,84,49146,32336,6689,352027,316-1,0181,0110026,2989,204275017,829017,829,240Sep 10,Mar 11,Sep 11,Mar 12,Cash Flow (ZARm),Margin Trends60453015,AngloGold AshantiFTSE/JSE
20、ALL SHARE (Rebased),Cash flow from operationsNet CapexFree cash flowEquity raised/(bought back)Dividends paidNet inc/(dec) in borrowingsOther investing/financing cash flowsNet cash flowChange in working capital,10,57737310,9502,384-474749-4,0759,534-950,13,035-6,6086,4275,656-8464,340-95514,622-1,53
21、7,21,577-10,09511,48271-1,286-1,227-1,8267,214-1,005,18,664-13,9084,7560-2,0291,155-2,4221,459-5,216,33,742-18,61415,1280-1,9470-1,44311,738-4,369,36,804-19,08117,7230-2,2410-1,01814,463136,0-15,09,10 11EBITDA Margin,12E,13EEBIT Margin,14E,Balance Sheet (ZARm)Cash and other liquid assetsTangible fix
22、ed assetsGoodwill/intangible assets,8,17643,2631,316,3,77640,6001,277,8,94452,4621,686,-86862,0401,983,1,76372,4631,983,6,83482,1921,983,Growth & Profitability,Associates/investmentsOther assets,7,25112,764,4,09712,879,5,64718,119,6,94424,772,7,74330,024,8,75430,759,50403020100,09,10,11,12E,13E,14E,
23、403020100-10-20,Total assetsInterest bearing debtOther liabilitiesTotal liabilitiesShareholders equityMinoritiesTotal shareholders equityNet debt,72,77014,35535,89150,24621,55896622,5246,179,62,62917,76317,84335,60626,20881527,02313,987,86,85820,00625,31445,32040,4321,10641,53811,062,94,87220,59626,
24、96347,55949,96253250,49421,464,113,97615,56328,70544,26872,28460572,88913,800,130,52215,56329,38844,95188,16958388,7528,729,Sales growth (LHS),ROE (RHS),Key Company Metrics,Solvency,Sales growth (%)DB EPS growth (%),nmna,26.3425.7,23.2853.7,20.911.8,39.463.6,4.8-5.9,6050403020100,09,10,11,12E,13E,14
25、E,806040200,EBITDA Margin (%)EBIT Margin (%)Payout ratio (%)ROE (%)Capex/sales (%)Capex/depreciation (x)Net debt/equity (%)Net interest cover (x),9.0-6.0nm-12.428.21.927.4nm,22.79.784.62.718.31.451.84.2,45.433.713.033.921.41.826.615.7,40.529.013.026.324.12.142.576.1,47.337.19.031.023.12.318.920.7,43
26、.432.311.422.222.62.09.826.8,Net debt/equity (LHS)Anna Mulholland, CFA,Net interest cover (RHS),Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates,+27 11 775-7270Page 2,,Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd,FY06,FY08,FY10,FY12e,FY14e,FY16e,FY18e,FY20e,FY22e,FY24e,FY26e,FY28e,FY30e,FY32e,FY34e,FY36e,FY38e,FY40e,
27、FY06,FY08,FY10,FY12e,FY14e,FY16e,FY18e,FY20e,FY22e,FY24e,FY26e,FY28e,FY30e,FY32e,FY34e,FY36e,FY38e,FY40e,FY06,FY08,FY10,FY12e,FY14e,FY16e,FY18e,FY20e,FY22e,FY24e,FY26e,FY28e,FY30e,FY32e,FY34e,FY36e,FY38e,FY40e,-,-,25 September 2012GoldSA Gold Mining,ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI OPERATIONAL SUMMARY DATA,DECEMBE
28、R YEAR END,AS UMP T IONSZARUSDGold (US$/oz)P RODUCTION, kozGreat NoligwaKopanangMoab KhotsongMponengSavukaTauTonaSurface OperationsIduapriemObuasiSiguiriMorilaSadiolaYatelaNavachabGeitaKibaliMongbwaluSunrise DamTropicanaCerro VanguardiaMineraoSerra GrandeCripple Creek & VictorT OTALT OTAL CAS H COS
29、T S , US $/oz,FY088.26873FY0833036219160066314922003563331701729368263004340154317813484947FY08,FY098.42974FY091583372475193021916219038131613713512865272004010192329712754562FY09,FY107.321,226FY1013230629253222260178184316273961184686357003950194338712924488FY10,FY117.231,574FY119430726650049244164
30、1993072491001213878494002460196361612664340FY11,FY12e8.001,727FY12e89208212457412331881892892578710225835670028002153581072584245FY12e,FY13e7.872,050FY13e9429832755039277237247382331691452490595033298352333682232545148FY13e,FY14e8.591,800FY14e942983574890225237247424331020301005959611129833423336822
31、32545516FY14e,FY15e9.421,606FY15e942983574890225260247442331020301675002701112983342413682233785836FY15e,NP VGreat NoligwaKopanangMoab KhotsongMponengSavukaTauTonaSurface OperationsIduapriemObuasiSiguiriMorilaSadiolaYatelaNavachabGeitaKibaliMongbwaluSunrise DamTropicanaCerro VanguardiaMineraoSerra G
32、randeCripple Creek & VictoTotalTotal NPVNet DebtMinoritiesEquity V alue,ZARm(118)6191,1732,621213721,27631144635054487(36)2651,6027353338892775923811,77614,35514,355(1,967)(72)12,316,ZAR/sh(0.3)1.52.96.50.10.93.20.81.10.90.11.2(0.1)0.74.00.20.10.82.21.92.30.24.435.935.9(4.9)(0.2)30.8,(%)-1%5%10%21%0
33、%3%10%3%4%3%0%4%0%2%13%1%0%3%7%6%7%1%14%117%117%-16%-1%100%,Great Noligwa,458,794,883,1,194,1,247,1,333,1,360,1,326,KopanangMoab KhotsongMponengSavukaTauTonaSurface OperationsIduapriemObuasiSiguiri,348379248497373439524633466,4064243291,120558342517630519,6135884531,105700485666744643,68168954686481
34、8659853862863,1,0011,0716309818817091,0981,0771,152,9549606581,1988897957879411,028,9739407101,1148117789001,028,9499166921,0867567789021,028,Gr aph 1 - P roduction profile to FY40e7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000,Morila,419,527,715,810,934,1,178,Sadiola,399,488,650,792,1,073,836,696,714,Yatela,5
35、69,385,863,1,537,2,032,1,753,SA,RoA,Australasia,Americas,NavachabGeitaKibaliMongbwaluSunrise DamTropicanaCerro VanguardiaMineraoSerra GrandeCripple Creek & VictorW EIGHT ED AV ERAGECAPEX , $mGreat NoligwaKopanangMoab KhotsongMponengSavukaTauTonaSurface OperationsIduapriemObuasiSiguiriMorilaSadiola,5
36、34728-551-462284350332433FY0825.047.089.085.011.059.00.055.0112.018.01.03.0,623954-847-352376425444531FY0925.058.0105.0110.012.057.03.029.094.023.04.04.0,727777-1,089-356449619533650FY1024.061.0114.0108.08.070.03.017.0110.011.00.09.0,1,026536-1,298-468592796597735FY1128.092.0148.0172.07.079.05.074.0
37、131.015.00.014.0,860593-1,228-695605973493852FY12e35.182.798.6114.014.179.34.575.3180.085.112.827.4,826506-5981,1206265966311,029518813FY13e43.377.658.971.317.074.06.075.7158.0123.424.527.6,7755272437811,1204745896851,068688797FY14e43.377.660.271.30.074.06.075.7158.0123.40.032.6,5926692747901,120480
38、5897141,080796793FY15e43.377.661.872.00.074.06.075.7158.0123.40.033.4,Gr aph 2 - Cash cost profile to FY40e900800700600500400300200100Cash costs ($/oz)Gr aph 3 - Capex profile to FY40e25002000150010005000,Yatela,3.0,3.0,2.0,0.0,11.0,19.0,0.0,0.0,SA,RoA,Australasia,Americas,NavachabGeitaKibaliMongbwaluSunrise DamTropicanaCerro VanguardiaMineraoSerra Grande,12.052.00.00.019.00.016.068.021.0,20.019.00.00.032.00.017.083.033.0,14.037.00.00.029.00.037.0142.025.0,
